Some Monday Morning $SPELL Analysis for all my frogs:
(dubious speculation involved)
First of all? I think the bottom is in:
We held support at the $0.02 level, wicking down below it but with all daily closes above it.
And we didn't just 'test' support, we held it, fighting with two cents for 48 hours.
That's not necessary a bullish signal in itself, but we definitely established a short-term floor at $0.02.
Since then it's looked pretty nice, here's the hourly chart:
You can kind of see we're getting into a pattern of 'mini cycles' where there's a big run-up, then a retracement, then a run-up, then a retracement.
Here are the last three.
And hopefully, we're in the beginning of a fourth.
Some resistance levels we could get rejected from:
• $0.025 (historical resistance/support)
• $.034 (the 'held' top of last run up)
• Previous ATH? (different on different exchanges ($0.034-$0.038
If we do break that all-time high, we'll probably go higher:
Every past ATH has been accompanied by a push higher up.
Catalysts:
• $MIM replenishments are up which is good for protocol revenue
• Dashboard launch might get us some more clarity around protocol revenue
• Solana launch?
Abracadabra Money's $SPELL token has TANKED over the last couple of weeks.
But maybe things are a lot more bullish than they seem...
Here's how the brand new analytics available on the Abracadabra Money Dashboard tell us we're overdue for a pump:
I think the most direct way to value $SPELL is its cash flows: it's unique in that just about every cent from borrowing activity gets paid out to stakers.
The past 6 weeks have produced an average of $2.33 mm/week. That's about $120 million in yearly revenue.
And that revenue doesn't cost anything. No marketing, no COGS, no interest expense.
Thus, we can value it more or less as pure earnings.
Below are some comps with P/Es that show how $SPELL is very undervalued. Note Maker DAO for an analogous crypto.
If you're a $SPELL holder and follow byebyedai.money, you might have noticed that fees have dropped heavily over the last 7 days.
But that could be good for $SPELL in the long term: here's how @danielesesta used smart tokenomics to create a downward-resistant protocol👇
$SPELL, for now, generates fees for stakers of sSpell via three mechanisms:
• Position opening
• Position closing (liquidation)
• Interest on debt position
Unlike other forms of debt, you can pay your interest on your $MIM ( $SPELL's stablecoin ) position all at once:
1. Lock up your collateral for $MIM 2. Your collateral accrues interest 3. You repay all of the debt plus the interest 4. Interest is distributed to sSpell stakers
A collection of the most interesting threads on crypto Twitter this week.
Learn:
• Why L1 blockchain space is the alpha real estate in crypto
• How tradfi valuations miss the true value of crypto
• How to manage wealth like a rich person
Your Sunday crypto digest 👇
Everything in crypto comes back to one thing: blockchains.
Here’s why buying L1s is like buying NYC real estate in the 1800s.
Facebook's Diem stablecoin will change the cryptocurrency landscape forever.
Diem has hinted at partnerships with existing cryptos. Any solid announcement of a partnership would cause that crypto to go parabolic.
So which crypto is it? Read on👇
(warning: tinfoil hat time)
I first came across the rumor on Twitter.
It originated from an update video from $COTI founder @shahafbg.
Quote: "as our integration to a major enterprise continues, I really look forward to letting you know who that enterprise is, when it's done, I will let you know."
People took him to be hinting at COTI launching a stablecoin with FB, so I decided to take a look.