Thread by @JackNiewold

Abracadabra Money's $SPELL token has TANKED over the last couple of weeks.

But maybe things are a lot more bullish than they seem...

Here's how the brand new analytics available on the Abracadabra Money Dashboard tell us we're overdue for a pump:

I think the most direct way to value $SPELL is its cash flows: it's unique in that just about every cent from borrowing activity gets paid out to stakers.

The past 6 weeks have produced an average of $2.33 mm/week. That's about $120 million in yearly revenue.

And that revenue doesn't cost anything. No marketing, no COGS, no interest expense.

Thus, we can value it more or less as pure earnings.

Below are some comps with P/Es that show how $SPELL is very undervalued. Note Maker DAO for an analogous crypto.

And those projections are reflecting past revenue, which shows that things could improve a lot given growth.

At a minimum, we're a 2x away from any type of REMOTELY fair valuation.

But P/E is a bit clunky for valuing cryptos-what if we looked at something a bit more precise?

Maybe Total Value Locked?

Well $SPELL's TVL is down about 12% while token price is down 55%.

WHAT!?

So TVL is a couple $MIM replenishments away from an ATH while TVL/Market Cap is at an all-time low.

And you're BEARISH, anon?

Many investors view a Market Cap/TVL ratio of under 1 as undervalued.

SPELL's TVL/MC is under .3

If that ratio got up to 1 on a static TVL, it'd be a hair away from a 4x from today's price.

Maybe Total Value Locked?

Well $SPELL's TVL is down about 12% while token price is down 55%.

WHAT!?

So TVL is a couple $MIM replenishments away from an ATH while TVL/Market Cap is at an all-time low.

And you're BEARISH, anon?

Many investors view a Market Cap/TVL ratio of under 1 as undervalued.

SPELL's TVL/MC is under .3

If that ratio got up to 1 on a static TVL, it'd be a hair away from a 4x from today's price.

The technical analysis paints a slightly more bearish picture.

We smashed through potential support at about 2.5 cents, then fought with 2 cents but ended up busting through.

We'll have to fight through that resistance again to come out the other side.

But I love this token because of its fundamentals, not its technicals.

Yield-bearing tokens have continued to be the biggest revenue driver from the protocol, as you can see below. That's good for stability and long-term loan health.

The $SHIB cauldron was largely a bust.

Which means the brand new degenbox strategy on $UST will probably be an insane driver of new protocol revenue.

I'm more bullish on the original thesis (yield-bearing assets) than trying to maximize meme-coin cauldrons.

https://twitter.com/MIM_Spell/status/1455899377613131785?s=20

And @danielesesta tweeting about some type of $SOL collab could only make more of these yield-bearing cauldrons feasible.

https://twitter.com/danielesesta/status/1458840978102665233?s=20

Understand this asset and you WILL be bullish.

If you think it's going to $10 by EOY, you'll end up disappointed.

We're still up 20x over the last 90 days (40x @ ath), people are bound to take profits.

No one ever WAGMId to the ☀️ without tasting a little blood first.

Do you believe in magic, anon?

Do me a favor and give that first a retweet or a favorite. It helps get the message out to more 🐸s

https://twitter.com/JackNiewold/status/1461113428253286402?s=20

If you want to see even more in-depth analysis on $SPELL and other altcoins, do me a favor:

1. Subscribe to my newsletter-our first Pro report caught spell at $0.013
2. Give me a follow! @jackniewold

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Been getting some questions on the $SPELL Report that came out on Crypto Pragamatist Pro.

Two ways to get it:
1. Subscribe to Crypto Pragmatist Pro (cryptopragmatist.com/sign-up/)
2. Give the tweet below a RT

https://twitter.com/JackNiewold/status/1450880516908064775?s=20

*pragmatist, oops, that’s embarrassing