Curious about what's happening to gasoline prices? Short version is that COVID and the Texas freeze massively disrupted supply chains. Some interesting data from @EIAgov this morning. Brief thread:
1/ First, look at demand. Gray area is the historic normal. Massive collapse when COVID hit that didn't get back to normal until this spring. Supply chains got beat up.
2/ Now look at how the Texas freeze hammered the refineries. (Please, fix your grid, Texas.)
3/ Couple those two and inventories are unsurprisingly at the low end of historic norms. That looks to explain most of the current price pressure at the pump.
4/ One last point though. Don't ignore the degree to which the US has become an oil exporter. Prices are high right now, in no small part because domestic producers are sending oil overseas. /fin
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So there's a video going around of a church leading their congregation in a chant of thinly veiled obscenities. I'm not going to share it, but do want to offer some thoughts on the power of the pulpit and it's temptations to corruption. Thread:
1/ Any preacher, musician or politician who's ever had some modicum of success has, at some point, found themselves in a position where they were moving a crowd towards something that was simultaneously dangerous and intoxicating.
A final interesting observation from #COP26 about the politics of climate and wealth inequality. I keep thinking about a conversation I had with a clean energy developer who'd built projects all over Europe...
...his observation was that in the Nordic countries where wealth inequality is lowest, support for immediate action on climate is highest. And places like the US are in the opposite situation. He noted that the two things are connected, in a Maslow kind of way.
Namely, if you don't know whether you'll be able to pay rent next week, or feed your family, or keep the heat on, you can't afford to advocate for climate action, even though you are most at risk of climate devastation.
This is so important and one of the biggest things I was tracking in Glasgow and now watching from afar. Any global, or domestic commitment to reduce GHGs lacks teeth without a robust Article 6 rulebook. (For those who want less jargon, a brief thread):
2/ At core, A6 is about transparency and accounting. Transparency being the thing that allows any country that pledges to cut their emissions from X to Y tons/yr to have open records so that any other country can audit their sources and sinks and verify the number.
This is really interesting. Even in the absence of sufficiently strong GHG policy, markets increasingly prefer the risk profile of clean cheap energy that doesn't have the price volatility of fossil fuel. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To be clear, this has been coming for a long time. I've long maintained that it's easy to predict what's going to happen in energy markets - it's just hard to predict the timing.
(Because capex cycles are so long and market fundamentals are, well, fundamental. But dumb money and/or bad contracts make the timing of liquidity moves hard to predict)
Another observation from #COP26 on climate finance. Im.struck by the fact that the parts of that which are politically hard domestically are easy internationally. And vice versa. Brief thread:
1/ Climate finance has two pieces: mitigation and adaptation. The 1st describes investments to lower GHG emissions. The latter is mitigating the pain of a warming planet.
2/ Domestically, we can always get bipartisan consensus on adaptation. Seawall, rebuilding after forest fires, etc. But it's damned hard to get domestic political consensus to cut CO2
Seeing a lot of summary of the Infrastructure package we passed Friday night. Some accurate, some goofy, lots with opinion masquerading as fact. So herewith a thread on what's in, what's in the BBB and why it's in 2 separate bills:
1/ First, remember that Biden campaigned on transforming our hard and soft infrastructure. After getting elected, he gave us his American Jobs Plan as a framework. See here for details: whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
2/ It was ambitious. Highways and bridges, yes. But also lower drug costs, address the climate crisis, expand access to education, housing and broadband, slash child poverty... and much more.