(Not making any statements about the politics of this article)
It's amazing how much attention this "focus group" is getting when the firm hasn't so much as published a methodology or report on findings. IMO there is a reason nobody who knows about research is writing about this
I will say that it's pretty stunning how new people think the finding that the Democrats are alienating working-class whites is, when education polarization has been increasing steadily since the 50s. Is this really about CRT and campus "wokeness" or something deeper and broader?
I do think @ryangrim does a better job than other commentators at trying to sort that out -- but also think the academic literature has many answers that have been left out of The Discourse. Like this paper for US dropbox.com/s/3nsueuaoquxz… or this globally: academic.oup.com/qje/advance-ar…
4/4 Finally, I think people have failed to look at the other side of the coin here. Republicans are much likelier than Democrats to say their party has gotten too ideologically extreme for them. What are the implications of that? Why only focus on the left and non-col whites? Etc
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I think it is very odd that we’re getting these stories about Democratic collapse in very rural areas when the swing against them in VA was much larger in 50-50 and 60-40D precincts, which tend to be suburban, and when the turnout decrease was much larger in very urban counties.
This is partially explained by the logit curve (50-50 areas have more personable voters in them than 75-25 jurisdictions!) but, really once you look at the turnout data there is no world in which McAuliffe’s loss was made in rural VA
I do think there is also a base rate fallacy going on in the underlying articles. Eg, the NYT piece compares Youngkin’s +2 win to McCain’s -6 in 2008 but doesn’t look at relative shares. And most of the change for Ds happened before 2020! So it’s not rly a 2021 story... at all
I am running a live election-night model for the governor’s race (similar to the NYT “needle”) and will be posting updates in this thread as results pour in. The model turns on once ~20 precincts report e-day votes & ~5 counties report absentees.
The state elections website (which is publishing statewide returns publicly) is really taking its sweet time. Lagging the networks by quite an amount. But with 3 absentee dumps and results from 107 precincts, reporting jurisdictions show a small shift toward Dems v 2020.
I imagine the model will switch itself on any moment now and then I can send you a screenshot
Our polling model for VA-Gov is up. It controls for house effects and (attempts to) adjust for partisan nonresponse ("attempts to" bc we detect only modest patterns in the VA polling right now).
One big thing: Polls show ~7% of voters are undecided right now. That really explodes the CI. Luckily, there has been very little correlation so far between the number of undecideds & the gap between McAuliffe and Youngkin. (Versus in CA when we saw undecideds breaking 4 Newsom.)
One thing to keep your eye on, in terms of trying to spot potential polling error, is that multiple polls have come in with Youngkin's vote % with voters of color wayyy higher than Trump's, including among Black respondents. Like ~10pts. Nonresponse or real? We'll know Tuesday...
My piece on the state of the Democrats: Their problems stem from long-term increases in ideological sorting, factionalized identities, nationalization, & educational polarization—each of which contribute to their problems in the Senate + Electoral College. economist.com/united-states/…
The piece doesn’t get into institutional reforms that might help them, in part because none are likely to pass and in part bc that’s not the point of the article. For the record, though, they should pursue everything that might make our federal institutions more proportional.
In the end, I think these structural patterns and long-term trends in the electorate, especially an increase in our collective “social distance” (identity-based polarization) & ideological sorting, are likely to overwhelm the impacts of message-based strategies, eg “popularism.”