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16 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Might 2°C calamity by around 2036-2045 or soon after still be avoided with the correct actions?

We should all be talking about this, but journalists and editors remain silent (particularly on a much feared aerosol 'termination shock') so people generally have no idea.

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
12 Nov
BREAKING: as both temperatures & CO2 emissions soar towards record levels by 2023 and industrial trawling and mining wreck the sea bed, climate scientists fear the ocean will soon be unable to provide Earth's largest long-term carbon store
🧵1. Abrupt climate change has 'a "worrying" effect' on the ocean's ability to lock away carbon. If global temperatures increase to levels predicted, the ocean 'will not be able to provide what is currently Earth's largest long-term carbon store'. bbc.com/news/science-e…
🧵2. We're heading for 1.6°C-2°C by the 2030s as corporations d governments openly plan together to increase fossil fuel production in the 2020s. We can't survive the ocean destruction being driven by economic growth. A postgrowth economy is the only way.cnbc.com/2021/07/20/co2…
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
6 Nov
Capitalism 2027

1. corals: 90% dead
2. unsurvivable heat
3. water scarcity hell
4. Antarctica collapses
5. global food insecurity
6. a million species extinct
7. tropics becoming uninhabitable
8. high risk of climate feedback doom

Only a postgrowth economy can avoid this now.🧵
🧵1 . Scientists agree: economic growth will make the extinction crisis of habitat destruction, toxic pollution and abrupt climate change difficult for humanity to survive decently, or perhaps even at all

* 1.5°C horrors by 2025-2030

The answer? Degrowth:cnbc.com/2021/02/19/deg…
🧵2. Mass media are virtually completely silent on what is essential for survival: rich countries rapidly and fairly degrowing their economies to aim for survival.

* new scientific consensus:

1.6°C-2.4°C hell by 2050 if we don't progress away from growth.yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/key-ta…
Read 12 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
5 Nov
1.6°C by 2030-2050

1. tropics becoming uninhabitable
2. a million species extinct
3. unsurvivable heat
4. corals 90% dead
5. water scarcity hell
6. global food insecurity
7. dire permafrost thaw
8. risk of climate feedback doom

Only a postgrowth economy can aim to avoid this.🧵
🧵1. “On our current trajectory, we are talking about climate change endangering roughly half of all plants and all insect species..

economic growth is just not viable as a mechanism for future prosperity. In fact, it is associated with future cataclysm.”cnbc.com/2021/02/19/deg…
🧵2. The most optimistic IPCC scenario based on a growth economy? Global temperature hits 1.6°C by 2050 then drops back by 2100. Scientists don't think this will happen.

'Such a relatively short excursion above 1.5°C might not trigger the worst outcomes'😱yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/key-ta…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
4 Nov
Today at >417 ppm of CO2 it seems a clear majority of climate scientists think we'll very likely hit 1.6°C-2.5°C hell by mid-century followed by unthinkable 2.1°C-4.6°C by the 2090s according to the IPCC scenarios which are rooted in economic growth-as-usual. We need degrowth. 🧵
1. “On our current trajectory, we are talking about climate change endangering roughly half of all plants and all insect species..

economic growth is just not viable as a mechanism for future prosperity. In fact, it is associated with future cataclysm.”cnbc.com/2021/02/19/deg…
2. IPCC scientists survey:

>75% of respondents said they expect 2.5C, 3C, 3.5C, or 4C by 2100:➡️nature.com/articles/d4158…

1.6C by the 2030s/2040s is unavoidable with economic growth-as-usual.

1.6-2.4°C is hell and with growth it's very likely by 2050:
⬇️
Image
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
3 Nov
Remember:

1. the tropics may become uninhabitable if global warming reaches 1.6°C-1.7°C

2. the best case scenarios with economic growth: 1.6°C-1.7°C by the 2040s

3. media refuse to explain the postgrowth alternatives that have been well understood by economists for decades

🧵
🧵1. “On our current trajectory, we are talking about climate change endangering roughly half of all plants and all insect species..

economic growth is just not viable as a mechanism for future prosperity. In fact, it is associated with future cataclysm.”cnbc.com/2021/02/19/deg…
🧵2. 'The tropics could become uninhabitable if we don’t limit global warming to less than 1.5°C'

We're somewhere between intermediate, high, and very high emissions scenarios: 2°C-2.4°C by 2041-2060; 3°C possible

IPCC unlikely best case scenario: 1.6°C
newscientist.com/article/227035…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
1 Nov
🧵Dear Journalists & Editors,

Please report that according to the IPCC, the global growth economy will cause extinctions at 1.5°C to 2°C of warming by 2032 then 1.6°C-2.4°C by 2050, but a new postgrowth paradigm could prevent such horror.

This silence is deadly.

Love from,
Ben
1. '6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range for global warming of 1.5°C, compared with 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates for global warming of 2°C'ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/s…
2. We can't rule out 2.5°C-3°C by 2050. People must be informed.

* 1.5C by 2027-2035

* 2C in the very high emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario: range of 2032 to 2053

* 1.6C-2.4C by 2050

carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-…

AR6 report:
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Read 5 tweets

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