So with the China journalist story back in the news I'm going to tell a story I don't think I have ever told completely, told parts of it but I tell it now so hopefully the context and my position makes more sense. Here goes 1/n
I had officially been let go from my job at Peking University and word was leaking out in the Chinese language community though I had not announced it publiclly because I felt doing so would put myself and my family at risk which was entirely accurate. 2/n
During this time, I received a speaking invitation from Xinhua for a conference in Hainan. This was very puzzling. Word was spreading rather rapidlyin the Chinese language world appearing on chat boards so they had to know so why were they inviting me when they clearly knew 3/n
My position on many issues, they had to know I had been let go, and very importantly why I had been let go. I actually wondered whether this was some type of trap to arrest me in more secluded place away from family. I consulted with a number of peple & finally agreed to go 4/n
I show up to the conference and someone is waiting for me at the airport. Not unnormal for these situations. She is a young woman mid to late 20's rather junior. She will be with me almost every minute I am not in my hotel room for the next few days. That was abnormal 5/n
She tells me she is with Xinhua. Cool. I ask where she learned her nearly flawless very well spoken English. University in an English speaking country. Cool. What type of journalism does she focuses on? I'm not a journalist. <Record scratch>. Ok, what do you do exactly? 6/n
I work for Xinhua but the branch that writes reports for the government. Me: so you gather information for the government and write reports on topics of interest for the government using your network of information and research background? Her: Yes that's right. Me: 8/n
I proceeded to learn a little more about this branch of Xinhua, and other Chinese "journalistic" outlets that literally do work for the government providing the Chinese government with research. On a quick side note: I was to receive a mall honorarium for speaking. 9/n
Typically this would be done post conference by wire transfer. In this case, a separate pretty young lady came to my hotel room and gave me an envelope of cash then looks at me and asks "Is there anything else I can do for you Mr. Balding?" Nope. No thank you 10/n
I have beliefs and I did not want to be one of the other men that left China under credible rumors of indiscretion who no longer speak freely about China or take very different positions than before. Oddly, the conference asked me to speak on a topic not in my direct line 10/n
Of expertise and recorded a lengthy interview where the footage to the best of my knowledge has never been released. I gave the most anodyne and bland answers to pretty much everything. To this I am not exactly sure what the purpose of the invitation was. My host followed 11/n
Me pretty much for two straight days making pretty bland small talk.Took me back to the airport and we've never been in touch since. So why doI tell you this? Some of it is obvious. Some of it less obvious. Most directly about the US-China journalism issue. 12/n
I don't know if US journalists and specifically US outlet journalists in China are just that clueless about China or if they are self censoring because they don't want to piss off China but let me tell you for an absolute damn fact: every major Chinese journalistic outlet 13/n
Isn't just state owned but absolutely has major divisions that work directly for the government bringing together informaton resources for state purposes. I can already here the journalists talk about the unspoiled purity of "journalism" but frankly if you believe that: 14/n
You are an unrivaled idiot when it comes to China. It isn't even that they are just stated owned pushing state directed propaganda, which they absolutely are, but that they are actively acting as agents of the state to gather information and engage in gray zone 15/n
Information and intelligence gather on behalf of the state in pursuit of state aims. That's simply fact. If you will note. There are a couple of final notes about the specific dispute. Trump administration did not restrict Chinese journalist visas just because. 16/n
They did it becuse a) it gave out vastly more visas to Chinese journalists than China gave to US journalists. Literally, US outlets are happy to get a couple. Chinese outlets are given hundreds. They were asking for at least something closer to parity. That is reasonable 17/n
Second issue is that the Trump administration knew like I know that many many Chinese "journalists" are not the grad school idea but are actually agents of the Chinese state gathering information working for the government to pursue state aims. This is simply fact 18/n
I understand not like this state of the world. It's not a good state. However, it is the reality. The real problem is journos is true journo fashion either have no understanding of reality of Chinese "journalism" (very possible) or they are effectively compromised 19/n
Talking their book as one might say wanting to stay or get back into China. Look at how relatiively little they will criticze Xi or Chinaor how silent US publications with journos imprisoned in China will remain quiet or pump bogus environmental initiatives. 20/n
There's a specific style of "plausible deniability" criticism where they hope to stay so "criticize" but don't criticize enough to draw Beijing ire. That's reality. You don't have to like it. I get why you wouldn't but most Chinese journos are not "journos" 21/n
They shouldn't be treated as such and why US free press journos are treating them as such is doing nothing more than revealing how little they know or how compromised they are. Unfortunately, probably a combination which is even worse. Done
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So a short thread on the US China Zoom call and that other reason you come to Twitter epistemology (a big word that means how do we know what we think we know). So here goes. I rightly deride all the arm chair (yes looking right at journos and other Galaxy Brains) sophistry 1/n
Discussing the summits and yes I said the same under Trump. There are two basic reasons for this. First, most meetings of this kind produce very little new information. Read the output from the China side and the US side and it was like watching reruns you've seen before 2/n
Second, the information received is generally very poor quality so even if there is some shred of new information it is very poor quality signal. How many times do politicians promise things they never intend to deliver even in the best of circumstances? Armchair analysts 3/n
As I have detailed repeatedly, my complaint about journalism is not that they have an view point they want to push but rather they are awful at their fundamental job on gathering facts about complex news issues and events. The reason this matters is it provides very VERY 1/n
Distorted understanding and importantly solutions to problems. More importantly for them it sets their preferred candidates up for failure because they have absolutely no chance of providing the absurdly simple solutions provided by journalistic narratives. Couple examples 2/n
For the last four years the answer to any foreign policy issue was "stupid Trump". What was sold was that new leadership would be able to solve these problems. Anyone that wasn't cursed with a Galaxy Journo Brain knew these issues were deep seeded going back decades 3/n
Professors and universities like to think of themselves as the smartest people in the room but they unwittingly reveal their ignorance by saying "I'm just a professor my research is academic." Let's unpack this thinking how they are targeted for the EXACT reason they think 1/n
Acts as a shield. In other words, they are saying out loud, we have no idea what we are talking about. First, let's put to rest the idea that professors are not targeted. I won't detail how I know that but I do. It can be because of the university they work at or the type 2/n
of research or because of material you may have access to. There are a variety of reasons why. Second, China keeps very detailed records of professors, research, think tankers, with lots of scoring and information they want to obtain. In other words, China generates targets 3/n
This is a very very charitable interpretation not least if which is because the White House walked this exact statement back only a few minutes after he says it. However because he says it this leaves us two specific choices in his to interpret what he said 1/n
First, he said the quiet part out loud maybe even as a signal to Beijing knowing his press people would walk out back. Possibly. Second, it was the standard Biden non sequitur his press people walk back shortly after he says something. I will generally leave the Rohrshach 2/n
Interpretation up to you as I leave the door open to either but will say my leaning is that he simply misspoke like the "agreement" about Taiwan he previously cited. However, let's assume for a moment he didn't misspeak and the (widely assumed though rarely spoken) assumption 3/n
I would disagree with the stay out of policy but the rest is totally true. They're are a couple things that are stunningly clear. Especially in China, the "data" academics and tankies dealing with is so old and top level as to be worthless stale and moldy. Any academic 1/n
Paper on China is probably five years out of date from release. The data quality academics and tankies use is really really poor. It is policy papers, official data, and top line data. This effectively makes "censorship" part of the data set. Academics and tankies are 2/n
Censoring on behalf of their funders or they are relying on effectively censored data to conduct studies. The sad part is they either don't understand this or they don't care. If you want to understand China watch ONLY how people behave. Words are very very poor signals 3/n
You've heard me say that the Galaxy Brains dealing with foreign policy are simply deeply unserious people and thinkers that if not for their influece should be ignored. Let me explain the reasons I say this. First, it is obvious their minds have been made up and no evidence 1/n
Or facts are going to change their mind. Pick any topic surrounding China and they cannot argue factually or empirically relying on data. So no matter what data or evidence you provide them, it is dismissed for increasingly creative reasons because facts don't matter 2/n
Second, their thinking is entirely inconsistent chasing straw men. Like theNYT Oped, "free market purists" will never be content with China. There is zero that the Chinese economy has been centralizing and shutting down markets. It is an invented straw men by a research firm 3/n