Thread by @anders_aslund

Putin gave his annual speech to the Russian ambassadors today. To my mind, it is the most defensive speech I have read of Putin. All is wrong, but naturally nothing is his fault.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

1. The top concern is Ukraine: "Ukraine’s internal crisis is among the most pressing and sensitive issues for us...Demonstratively, Ukraine has failed to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Package of Measures, as well as the Normandy format agreements."

2. Alas, "[Germany and France] are indulging the current Kiev leadership’s course on dismantling the [Minsk agreements], which, unfortunately, has led the talks and the settlement itself into a dead end...it is important to energetically continue the mediation efforts..."

3. This shows it works when Germany & France finally speak up. Worse, "our Western partners are exacerbating the situation by supplying Kiev with modern lethal weapons, conducting provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders." That works

4. "our partners are peculiar in the sense that they have a very – how to put it mildly – superficial approach to our warnings about red lines. We remember well NATO's eastward expansion..." = I, Putin, respect you when you hit hard, and you do.

5. This is what works: "There have been several waves of expansion, and let’s look at where the military infrastructure of the NATO bloc is now – anti-missile defence systems have been deployed right next to our borders in Romania and Poland....we do not need a new conflict."

6. On Belarus: "It is also impossible to ignore that Western countries are using the migration crisis on Belarus-Poland border as a new reason for tension in a region close to us...Just look how the Polish security forces are behaving at the border..." Well, done Poland!

7. When Putin loses, he becomes conciliatory: "we know and understand that Belarus has its problems, although domestic political tensions have calmed down, but the problems exist...we certainly support a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition." Good!

8. After a list of friends, Putin comes to the three enemies, the EU, NATO & the US. Again, he is sad and defensive rather than aggressive as the West, however lame, as stood off sufficiently to placate Putin.

9. EU: "Even though the EU remains our leading trade and economic partner, the previously rather productive Russia-EU cooperation is currently experiencing major difficulties.

The EU continues to push us back with its sanctions, unfriendly actions"

10. NATO: "A similar, if not more depressing, situation prevails in our relations with NATO which has adopted a markedly confrontational stance and is stubbornly and demonstratively bringing its military infrastructure closer to our borders, as I mentioned earlier." Great!

11. USA: "Russia-US relations...are in an unsatisfactory state...Embassy staffs have been cut [by Russia] and the embassies cannot function properly... These are the consequences of the provocative policy pursued by US authorities..."

12. "Our property in the United Sates has been seized in violation of every international standard and rule, every single rule." Rightly so!

13. "Nevertheless, the summit with President Biden in Geneva last June opened up a few opportunities for a dialogue and gradual alignment, straightening out our relations..."
Thank you VVP to clarify that Biden's meeting with you was his main mistake with you.

14. I usually read Putin's speeches and I have never read anything so humble and defensive. He could as well have said that we have lost and we have to sue for peace. Apparently, the West has stood up sufficiently to put itself in respect with Putin, more so than I thought.

15. Needless to say, Putin does not even mention his wagnerites in about 15 countries, the for Russia embarrassing Wagnergate in Belarus/Ukraine or his current gas wars or Nord Stream 2. All his offensives have failed. Great!