So what went wrong? What can we learn?

A thread 🔥🔥🔥

1/22 Reflecting on Nov 2017 coup
2/22
The coup was a reaction to the succession question left too late by Mugabe. By 2017 Mugabe had systematically wilted & weeded out many formidable individuals out of politics. By 2017, the choice for leadership was scant & relied on brawn than intellect.
3/22
Therefore whomsoever took over was certainly not the best & lacked the leadership mantle & skill. To have survived up to 2017 required utter, non conditional subserviency. That’s why Grace took a prominent position in succession. Her loyalty was deemed unquestionable.
4/22
even within the army, the brightest & brilliant had long retired or moved on. Mugabe overstaying meant the broth from which to pick leadership was stale. Mugabe should have left after 1990. After which, many formidable characters should’ve dealt with the post Berlin Wall era
5/22
In 1990 a new world was ushered. There was a paradigm shift. Perhaps Bernard Chidzero or Ariston Chambati should’ve taken over. I am merely highlighting these names to show what was required to navigate the 1990’s & new world order. Mugabe’s peers left the stage
6/22
Primarily as a consequence of the new world order. Mugabe was woefully inadequate to lead a sophisticated economy in a globalized world. Donors and MFI were no longer arm-twisted to provide carte blanche financial support to stop Russian influence.
7/22
By 2017 the world had changed many times over. China is not an enemy to USA. It’s more a rivalry than the Cold War arms race between Russia & USA. I highlight all this to bring to fore what kind of leadership was required in 2017.
8/22
Mnangagwa or anyone of the contenders in 2017 were woefully inadequate for the 21st century. If they were in the private sector they’re like people trained to typewrite and stuck in 1985. Then woke up, much older with only one skill set to typewrite!
9/22
The typewriter from the typing pool is now required to lead the fourth revolution. It will never work.
10/22
So the first reason is the lack of proper 21st century leadership with capacity. The whole system beyond ED needs to go. Many civil servants have overstayed. And need to retire. They should be given land & lifetime support of inputs. They will do less harm
11/22
In a competitive world, a government cannot just support one businessman. Look at China and it’s political processes. Many billionaires have come out of China. Not just one. This clansman & feudal system of governance in 2021 is frankly out of sync. How does command
12/22
Agriculture & the entire government economy be railroad to one individual? What if that individual fails? Or exorbitantly overprices their skill and wares? If there was competition even within the cronyism the damage would’ve been less.
13/22
How then do you explain to history how the condonation bill of US$10bn in three years was controlled by one man. Chosen by the political elite? To contextualize, command Agriculture yearly turnover was bigger than the top ten ZSE counters yearly turnover.
14/22
It was like Sakunda in charge of top ten ZSE counters. Running , Delta,Econet, OM, Innscor…etc combined. Imagine the competence and competitiveness required to be a Delta CEO. Now Sakunda was woefully incompetent to run command Agriculture. That’s why it became a disaster
15/22
Beyond betting on Sakunda, there is no mechanism to ditch this relationship. Sakunda was heavily involved in what is now Kuvimba. GOZ because of their typewriter mindset believes in Agriculture & mining. Never mind their limited contribution to gdp.
16/22
The entire resource companies in the world are worth less than Elon Musk’s wealth. Yet resources are engineered towards these sectors. Without title deeds it’s a feudal system that secures political pliancy but not 21st century entrepreneurship.
17/22
The tallest building in the CBD is RBZ. Therein the problem. How can the regulator dominate the city and its affairs? RBZ needed to be cut in size. It’s dominance curtailed. But under second republic RBZ has become more powerful than ever. More than Gono years.
18/22
In return the RBZ has now burdened society with US$5bn debt. Bankers are supposed to be the cowboys & buccaneers and not the central bank. RBZ. In its tallest building takes FX from exporters & distributes to its favourites. Why has GOZ allowed this? Besides incompetence
19/22
It’s cronyism wrapped in sophistry. Our leaders have a chip on their shoulders. Rather than ask simple questions one can get away with claims of algorithms & relationships with creditors that BTW punish Zim with punitive interest rates.
20/22
Zimbabwe needs radical change in its governance system. Anyone above 40 must be retired from civil service including police & military. They must be given land & lifetime of inputs. They’ll have less damage there. We need proportional representative in Parliament.
21/22
The current system is a Cold War era mechanism that punishes dissent & encourages party loyalty and not consensus leadership.

The economics can be easily sorted with right leadership that is incentivized to grow the economy and perform.
22/22
Economics will only work when the politics works.

Finally I will go against the popular view in Zim. The military men, past & present must be no way near political governance. Leading 23 year old’s with o’levels & swear an oath to obey orders is far different from leading
In the 21st century. The skill set needed is vastly different. For example the kids born in 2000 have an IQ double the military men. The Economist (2021)has made this point clear about military leadership. Civilian society requires consensus not orders from top down.

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More from @baba_nyenyedzi

17 Nov
(i) IMF release its report on Zim
(ii) RBZ move the Fx rate to 105
(iii) Backlog to be cleared

What to make of these.

The IMF article IV consultations are routine chats with it’s member countries. Unfortunately Zim is no longer on SMP & though the IMF & MOF had indicated…
..the resumption of SMP this year, the current report makes no mention. Meaning it’s not in the near future. SMP involves IMF deep dive & interrogation of the state of affairs. In contrast with this report based on feedback from stakeholders. It’s thin on details.
Eg it speaks of unsustainable debt & external arrears without any details. Zim is in a debt trap. With external debt upwards of US$20bn. The RBZ alone has a US$5bn debt problem.

The IMF let the cat out of the bag by highlighting how the RBZ is in control of the Fx rate despite
Read 7 tweets
15 Nov
People remember the 14 November 1997 zim dollar crash. And attribute it to war vet payments. This is patently false. Correlation does not mean causation.

While war vet payments may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back it’s not the real reason.
The real reason is RBZ quasi fiscal activities that started in 1990. The mismanagement of the economy in the 1980’s despite huge donor funds spilled over in 1990’s.

RBZ printing filled the gap left by donors & MFI’s.
(i) Maize subsidy of 56% for consumers & 100% for vulnerable
(ii) RBZ printing directly funding farmers input schemes.
Africa went through exactly the same problems Zim had. But didn’t use their central banks in direct financing of subsidies, fiscal activities & political payments.
Read 5 tweets
29 Oct
1/12
I am going to say something positive about the MPC. Hold on tight.

It’s really one aspect. The rest was the usual jaba jaba.

The MPC increased RBZ interest rates from 40 to 60% pa. Giving a real positive interest rate. Albeit with a suspect inflation rate.
2/12
This is what the RBZ remit is all about. This is the major lever the central bank has. Yet it has been absent and useless for the last six years. The day Mangudya decided on Zim dollars the next thing he should have done is positive interest rates. That’s the only way
3/12
A central bank defends its currency & maintains monetary integrity of the whole system. By doing so it would rein in GOZ profligacy & mal investments in the market. Sakunda would never have happened.

So it was dereliction of duty by RBZ as prescribed by the constitution
Read 12 tweets
19 Oct
The way I was attacked, my IQ questioned, vitriol & trolling for simply stating the obvious that Zim is NOT an agriculture based economy! That over the decade, even with the best harvest Agric was now 9% ( 10 yr avg)of GDP.

In 2020 it was worse. It was 7.6%. Lowest in a decade.
Yet, unprecedented in the world is the amount of GOZ expenditure directed to agriculture.

We can explain it thus; despite an unprecedented expenditure in Agric through Command Agriculture, the sector contribution fell to its lowest.
The actual numbers point to a very fragile economy which was devastated by Covid.

Try & use the official exchange rates to determine the USD GDP.

Fx auction has reduced GDP overall gains. In the past Zim has enjoyed commodity booms, this time it was muted.

Thread in November
Read 6 tweets
17 Oct
Most problems can be solved if only we engage. Twitter makes it possible to engage regardless of our views. But, through engagement & interrogation we often find the truth & logic to questions that trouble us. The worst is acting on something in ignorance.
Twitter allows the ignorance to find light. I am always amazed at the level of intelligence, engagement & examples. Oft times, I too am educated or find great nuances in our debates.

GOZ is made of ignorant politicians with power. Nothing wrong with ignorance, it can be changed
But ignorance with power will never allow debate. Leadership capacity means ability to deal with complexity. Complexity requires a lot of engagement & understanding.

One is required to be a pilot to fly a plane. But one is not required to be a pilot to run a successful airline
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
From a corporate governance perspective the Perm Sec Guvamatanga should refuse the gift from Tagwirei. From a public finance perspective, it spells disaster when the main beneficiary of the condonation bill (parliament pardon for over expenditure) is gifting country's treasurer
From a moral perspective, it reeks & stinks to high heavens when street traders are arrested for illegal currency trades when Sakunda and others at the party are beneficiaries of the ZWL in the market causing rates to spike.
Lets not attack the man. But the Perm Sec must understand that his friendship & expensive gifting with Tagwirei goes against ALL governance rules especially in public service.
Read 4 tweets

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