Thread by @MichaelWorobey

Some follow-ups to this thread from yesterday about a Perspective article of mine, on early COVID cases in Wuhan, released by @ScienceMagazine :

https://twitter.com/MichaelWorobey/status/1461417259600023556

First, I have learned that @franciscodeasis had earlier concluded that Mr. Chen, the so-called "Dec 8" patient, actually became ill on Dec 16:

https://twitter.com/franciscodeasis/status/1397227238764990469

And @Drinkwater5Reed and other DRASTIC members had advanced additional research along the same lines, including of the same news video I analyzed in my paper:

https://twitter.com/Drinkwater5Reed/status/1428772298358730752

Kudos to all. I believe my additional insights into why the discrepancy may have arisen - surprisingly because Chen appears to have had a dental problem and fever Dec 8-9, are a useful new step.

And I'm happy to be bouncing additional ideas back and forth with @franciscodeasis and @Drinkwater5Reed currently.

On that note, here is a link to a translation of said video report, with Mr Chen's case starting at 12:30:

dropbox.com/s/3swu4gskv8rx…

From the timeline legend of my paper:

"A medical record from 9 December, shown in reference S4, states that the patient “has had a fever for one day [发热1天]” and prescribes two antibiotics, cefmetazole (头孢美唑), and piperacillin sodium (哌他). "

"The 9 December record is shown immediately to the right of a record from a doctor or dentist named Wei Tian (田巍)diagnosing “retained baby teeth [乳牙滞留]” and recommending “removal [of the baby teeth] under local anesthesia [局麻下51拔除]."

"Both records appear to be part of the same patient chart. This suggests that the fever started on 8 December, possibly due to a dental infection. This may have been the source of the confusion that led to the apparently erroneous 8 December onset date. "

"When talking about COVID-19, the patient makes clear in his own voice that his fever started on 16 December, at around 10 AM. This is a clear indication that his earlier symptoms, including his fever from 8-9 December, were not considered by him to be related to COVID-19:.."

"...if he believed his 8-9 December fever was the start of his COVID-19 symptoms, it is difficult to understand why he would state that his fever “began” on 16 December."

It has also just become clear to me that Ms Wei, the seafood vendor from Huanan who is now the earliest known case of SARS-CoV-2, had symptom onset Dec 10 at the latest. Someone reached out over email and provided this translation of this video:

thepaper.cn/newsDetail_for…

我是怎么染上的？我是这样的
How did I get covid? This is me
我是觉得自己有点累吧 往年也是这样的 今年要说还不累 还不是那么累
I felt a little bit tired. But I was like this last year too. This year's (business?) wasn't that exhausting, it wasn't too tiring

就是以前每年冬天总会有点流感什么的 我当时以为是流感 就是身体不舒服
every winter I will always get the flu or something. I first felt it was flu, I just wasn't feeling well.
头昏脑胀 感冒的感觉 蛮轻微
I head headaches and dizziness. Felt like a cold. Was mild.

没有什么蛮重要的表现 我一直从11号开始不舒服
It didn't really have any significance. I started to become (more?) uncomfortable starting on 11th
就去（小诊所）打针 打了两针之后就没有反应
I went to the local clinic to get shots.

This is now consistent with a report I cited from the @WSJ, which had her onset as Dec 10. Seems like that is likely correct.