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Anders Åslund Profile picture
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20 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I am amazed by all these pro-Putin characters in Washington who know little or nothing about Russia & even less about Ukraine. They call for Western appeasement with Russia & agitate against Western sanctions against Russia & military support for Ukraine. They are all wrong.
1. Ukraine persisted against Putin's explicit claim that he would capture half the country (April 17, 2014) for two reasons: A. Ukraine's impressive military defense. B. United Western sanctions against Russia from July 2014. Our report with @MSnegovaya.
atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-resea…
2. Repeatedly, Russia has mobilized its troops around Ukraine, but on the most important occasion, key Ukraine allies, notably the US, has raised their voice & Russia has stayed away. My sense is that is the case right now.
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
3. My question to the appeasers & defeatists is why do you want to encourage Russia to attack Ukraine by weakening its defenses? There is no perceivable logical argument. Don't you know what you are doing or are you only Putin or Koch agents?

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
21 Nov
Suddenly, Washington's many pro-Putin advocates have presented a flow of articles arguing that the West should stop supporting Ukraine & instead listening to Putin's wise advice. One of the worst is Rand's Samuel Charap, so let us check his arguments.
politico.com/news/magazine/…
1. Charap claims that the US policy of offering "sticks to Moscow and carrots to Kyiv" has failed. Western sanctions and mainly US military support stopped the Russian military expansion in Ukraine from February 2015. That is not bad, but Charap clearly wants more for Moscow...
2. Charap continues "The risk of a major war seems real enough to justify a new U.S. approach. The current policy of threatening punishments and bolstering Kyiv might be morally justified, but it is highly unlikely to alter Putin’s calculus." Charap wants the US to abandon peace?
Read 9 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
18 Nov
Putin gave his annual speech to the Russian ambassadors today. To my mind, it is the most defensive speech I have read of Putin. All is wrong, but naturally nothing is his fault.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
1. The top concern is Ukraine: "Ukraine’s internal crisis is among the most pressing and sensitive issues for us...Demonstratively, Ukraine has failed to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Package of Measures, as well as the Normandy format agreements."
2. Alas, "[Germany and France] are indulging the current Kiev leadership’s course on dismantling the [Minsk agreements], which, unfortunately, has led the talks and the settlement itself into a dead end...it is important to energetically continue the mediation efforts..."
Read 16 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
13 Nov
The Kremlin is instigating a perfect storm in Eastern Europe as the winter is approaching: Gas war, Migrant war of Belarus against Poland, Lithuania & Latvia, military mobilization around Ukraine & possible Serb Republic secession in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Thanks @tashecon
The West, the EU, UK & US, need to act hard & fast. The worst provocation against Russian aggression is not to react or to react slowly. The Kremlin does respect force & credible threat of force.
1a. The gas war should be easy to combat: Just impose the legislated US sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG & the pipeline will rust away in the Baltic Sea & never certify it.
Read 12 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
6 Nov
Kyiv Post summarizes the Zelensky government circus: "The process of hiring and firing top officials under Zelensky has been chaotic....The disarray delayed crucial reforms in key government sectors, such as defense and medical procurement."
kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi…
2. "Moreover, some ministers have left a dubious trail, with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau opening probes into corruption and abuse of office."
“They don’t have a strategy, no one knows why people are hired or fired,"
3. Lawmaker Mykyta Poturaev, who represents Zelensky’s party: “Taran — ineffective, Uruskiy — ineffective, Lyubchenko — corruption, Abramovsky — the inability to combat corruption,”
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
6 Nov
Politico has published the long-discussed Biden invitation list to the Summit for Democracy, December 9-10. On the whole it makes a lot of sense. It contains 107 countries, slightly more than half of the world, while Freedom House ranks 91 democracies.
politico.com/f/?id=0000017c…
2. Also some tiny democracies (Liechtenstein, St. Kitts etc.) included by Freedom House are ignored by the US. All sizable Freedom House democracies have been invited. The key question is: What unworthy countries have been included?
freedomhouse.org/countries/free…
3. Three countries stand out as rightly ranked as "not free" by Freedom House, namely Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo & Iraq. These countries do not belong to a democracy summit.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
30 Oct
Let me focus on a few Merkel actions:
1. Facilitated Putin's energy blackmail by allowing Nord Stream 2.
2. Allowed Gazprom to buy much of gas storages in Germany to aggravate his gas blackmail.
3. Blocked military support to Ukraine.
4. Merkel accepted the pro-Russian Steinmeier formula for Donbas, aggravating Russian military aggression.
5. Merkel has persistently blocked Ukraine's accession to NATO.
6. She supported Orban as a member of EPP to dismantle democracy in Hungary.
7. She opposes EU sanctions against Poland while its government is dismantling rule of law.
8. She has done nothing to block US sanctioned KGB general Vladimir Yakunin to run his NGO from Berlin.
9. She has done nothing to expose Putin's prime European agent Schröder.
Read 5 tweets

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