Reading all the articles about a possible Russian new offensive in Ukraine, I can't help but wonder what the Kremlin is planning to achieve with it. It is already clear maintaining lands is much costlier than grabbing them - both in financial and political terms
Annexation of Crimea and occupation of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions didn't make them more prosperous or developed, on the contrary. Especially occupied Donbas has become an unliveable and unsustainable black hole, so much worse than it was pre-2014
There is no chance an eventual Russian attempt to occupy more Ukrainian territory would be welcomed, in no Ukrainian region. Nothing even remotely similar to local support, like in Donbas, is possible. Everybody in Ukraine knows what Russia brings with it
Moreover, Ukrainians will fight fiercely. Armed forces are much stronger than they were in 2014 and it's a given territorial defence units will be formed pretty quickly. There will be a huge society mobilization. It will be a bloodbath for both sides, with huge costs
Politically, Russia doesn't win anything either. In current situation, when the war is going on for seven years and is largely forgotten by many Ukrainians in their daily routine, no pro-Russian politician is even close to being considered 'popular'. Their support is marginal
If there is renewed Russian aggression, that will only mobilize those parts of Ukrainian electorate who are largely indifferent now, against Russia and political forces it supports in Ukraine. In the long run, that would be a loss again.
Of course, Russia is much stronger militarily and can defeat Ukraine easily if it decides to use air force. But what's next? Is there any plan what to do with it? Ukraine in 2021 is so much different from the one of 2013. If Russia tries to swallow even parts of it, it will choke
It's delusional for certain Western experts to suggest Ukraine can be somehow pushed to 'compromise' - or surrender - to Russia. This is simply not going to happen. Our survival depends on our resolve to fight. We've been doing it for seven years, unlike those suggesting
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