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Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
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21 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Just from the perspective of a crypto fund manager, it seems really dangerous to bet too heavily on the large caps. For a long term investor, blue chips might make a lot sense, but in any given year within a bull market it seems like a sure way to underperform and not attract AUM
2021. Great for year for crypto. Anyone with a heavy ETH bet did fine. But also got crushed by funds betting on higher beta plays, alt L-1s. Etc. Probably similar dynamics with Bitcoin in 2017
To some extent this might be true for stocks. But I’m not sure if the dynamics are extreme. For basically any year in the last decade, an all FANG+ approach has been a true winner. Yes always some small cos. that outperform.
Also, even if you could’ve beaten FANG over the last decade, it’s ok, because by TradFi standards, FANG delivered excellent returns. If you’re getting into crypto in 2021, how psyched are you by ETH’s 4x return? Probably wishing you took more risk TBH

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More from @TheStalwart

Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
16 Nov
TRANSCRIPT:

The full text of full conversation with @crmiller1 about the Dutch lithography giant $ASML is out.

I learned a ton from this one, and I'm really glad to have re-read the text (I don't always do).

Gonna thread a few things that jumped out:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@crmiller1 So the first thing is definitely this answer from Chris to @tracyalloway about ASML's competitive edge. The story is really their incredible supply chain, and being able to manage 4000 suppliers.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@crmiller1 @tracyalloway Right now, ASML's most advanced EUV lithography machines are not exported to China, and for the time being (and likely the next several years) this represents a hard constraint on Beijing's efforts at building up its own domestic chip industry.
Read 5 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
15 Nov
THE ASML ODD LOTS

After teasing it as part of our chip series for months, @tracyalloway and I finally did an episode on $ASML, the Dutch powerhouse in advanced lithography

Great chat with our guest @crmiller1, who is writing a book on the company bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @crmiller1 As our guest notes, $ASML has zero competition at its level of its sophistication. None. Nobody else can achieve the scale it can, with its reliability. So if you want to make the most cutting edge chips, you are an ASML customer.
@tracyalloway @crmiller1 As I wrote about on Friday, what's impossible for competitors to replicate is not its technological knowledge per se, but its supply chain mastery, dealing with at least 4000 distinct independent suppliers
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
15 Nov
WHY CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS CRASHING WHILE THE JOB AND STOCK MARKET ARE BOOMING

In today's @markets newsletter I wrote about this seeming disconnect.

IMO there's one simple reason for it and one interesting reason for it.

Sub' here:

bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
@markets Basically I think it's a combo of

1) Inflation

2) Extreme partisan polarization on all things economy

2a) The surging quits rate affecting Republican small business owners specifically.
The big question is now whether these sentiment readings actually translate into a slower economy. It's one thing to be upset. It's another thing to pull back on investment and consumption. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
12 Nov
WHEN THE PRODUCT THAT'S BEING SOLD *IS* THE SUPPLY CHAIN

The subscriber only Odd Lots newsletter that @tracyalloway and I write each week is now available on the web.

I teased ahead to Monday's episode, which is all about Dutch lithography giant $ASML

bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@tracyalloway I keep going back to @hassankhan point. Politicians love to fetishize R&D and science. But for some of the most cutting edge technologies, what's unique is not the scientific breakthrough per se, but simply the ability to coordinate supply chains and manufacturing ops at scale.
This is also something that @danwwang talks a lot about, the unduplicable, tacit knowledge that can only come about from doing something and getting better at doing it over and over and over again
Read 7 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
12 Nov
I know we're never supposed to admit when we're wrong or that we've changed our minds. But I agree now, after much twitter banter, that asset holders have been among the huge winners over the last year. So I agree it's time to start taxing capital gains the same as normal income.
We should also seriously consider getting rid of 401Ks, 529 and related plans. If you're fortunate enough to have money to spare and invest in the stock market, why should you be then further rewarded with a reduction of your tax bill?
Obviously, none of this will solve the problem entirely. The wealthy can still generate income by borrowing against assets (as opposed to selling them) so in those instances, we should go with @interfluidity plan of taxing such loans as normal income.
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
11 Nov
TRANSCRIPT:

The full text of our discussion with @GoddessofGrain is out.

Just a crazy amount of insight into what's driving the surge in grain prices, and therefore meat, dairy and all kinds of other stuff we eat.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@GoddessofGrain Angie knows this stuff so well, and is a fount of insight.

I hadn't thought about, for example, how the booming housing market makes it harder for farmers to acquire land, driving up their costs, and therefore the price of food bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@GoddessofGrain Also just like everyone else right now, farmers are worried about the future availability of part supplies (like a belt for their tractor) so are attempting to build up their buffers.
Read 4 tweets

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