Reminder: BTC is in a secular bull market. Don't confuse realism with bearism.🙂
Perceptions are relative. When you're used to seeing hyper-bull posts, realism will *appear* bearish. The reality though is realism is bullish... even with consolidation.
The LGC represents both this secular bull market and the wall of worry that all bull markets climb.

The flaw of hyper-bull posts was the suggestion that it would all be a walk in the park.
On the face of it, some might be critical of those curves... but consider the strength of a theory is prediction and results. The lines of this channel were drawn in 2018... with the price ranging within this channel all that time.…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with dave the wave🌊

dave the wave🌊 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @davthewave

19 Nov
The dynamic of this market is starting to now look qualitatively different. What was before an idea [due to increased liquidity and a maturing market] is beginning to be confirmed in the price action. All good.
The point of this post is that, from the macro perspective, even if we were to see an extended consolidation from here this need not be though of as a 'bear market'. That kind of outlook [fear] belongs to a more immature phase of the market along with talk of mulit-year cycles.
As envisaged near a year back -…
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
Big picture stuff.

Even if price carried on up in the channel at this rate, it would not hit 100K by December.
I'll always answer the odd question or comment that I think might be genuine. Other posts that are obviously boorish or trollish, I'll be blocking for a few months.
For those overly concerned that my realist charts serve to restrain buying at high levels, don't worry. My small account is going to have next to no affect on the market [prob holds for CT altogther]. This worry may actually only be a form of paranoia.😉
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
A few more weeks, and you'll have the longest correction within what most term as a cyclical/ bull run up. Portending a double-top?
This would also work in with the absence of a blow-off top that confounded so many. This kind of new price action may reflect an increasingly liquid and maturing market...
Model of the LGC primarily. Add to that, the consolidating monythly MACD, and reasonable to think double top.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
On the basis of TA, you can not become a stubborn bull or a bear in the shorter term if that TA also has invalidation levels baked into it. If it's invalidated, it's invalidated, time to move on.
Those that either harp on about it being invalidated on the one hand, or cling on to their [short term] bull or bear mindset on the other are all TA illiterates.🙂
Once shorter term TA is invalidated, analysts unsurprisingly have two recourses open to them - 1] draw another shorter term TA, whilst also continuing to look at the longer term TA, or a model if available to them. Contrary to some of my posts, this is simple stuff.🙂
Read 10 tweets
2 Oct
Good to see some starting to get it. In an increasingly mature/ increasingly liquid market, nice neat multi-year cycles are dinosaurs. A 'lengthened' cycle also makes no sense in this scenario. Indeed, why talk of 'cycles' anymore [in referring to price development]?
Cycle theory was the product of quant analysis. In contrast to a strictly quantitative approach, you've now got considerations of 'qualitative' differences in the market - a maturing market is a qualitatively different market to what came earlier. More of a macro idea.
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
Monthly MACD monster well and truly crossed now. It looks scary, but the MACD is lower than previous, and continues down once the bottom is in. A possible scenario with price bottoming at the end of the quarter.
This chart should show it increasingly unlikely that the current price action is comparable to 2013.
If a scenario something like this played out, it would in no way break Bitcoin [which I'm very bullish on... corrections and all]. It would only break models and theories such as s2f, 4 year cycle, and lengthening cycle.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!