Even if price carried on up in the channel at this rate, it would not hit 100K by December.
I'll always answer the odd question or comment that I think might be genuine. Other posts that are obviously boorish or trollish, I'll be blocking for a few months.
For those overly concerned that my realist charts serve to restrain buying at high levels, don't worry. My small account is going to have next to no affect on the market [prob holds for CT altogther]. This worry may actually only be a form of paranoia.😉
Zoomed in. Price continuing to observe the shortest term trend line for now -
An Observation
Price action currently matching the previous move up... the daily price lining up perfectly.
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A few more weeks, and you'll have the longest correction within what most term as a cyclical/ bull run up. Portending a double-top?
This would also work in with the absence of a blow-off top that confounded so many. This kind of new price action may reflect an increasingly liquid and maturing market...
Model of the LGC primarily. Add to that, the consolidating monythly MACD, and reasonable to think double top.
On the basis of TA, you can not become a stubborn bull or a bear in the shorter term if that TA also has invalidation levels baked into it. If it's invalidated, it's invalidated, time to move on.
Those that either harp on about it being invalidated on the one hand, or cling on to their [short term] bull or bear mindset on the other are all TA illiterates.🙂
Once shorter term TA is invalidated, analysts unsurprisingly have two recourses open to them - 1] draw another shorter term TA, whilst also continuing to look at the longer term TA, or a model if available to them. Contrary to some of my posts, this is simple stuff.🙂
Good to see some starting to get it. In an increasingly mature/ increasingly liquid market, nice neat multi-year cycles are dinosaurs. A 'lengthened' cycle also makes no sense in this scenario. Indeed, why talk of 'cycles' anymore [in referring to price development]?
Cycle theory was the product of quant analysis. In contrast to a strictly quantitative approach, you've now got considerations of 'qualitative' differences in the market - a maturing market is a qualitatively different market to what came earlier. More of a macro idea.
Monthly MACD monster well and truly crossed now. It looks scary, but the MACD is lower than previous, and continues down once the bottom is in. A possible scenario with price bottoming at the end of the quarter.
This chart should show it increasingly unlikely that the current price action is comparable to 2013.
If a scenario something like this played out, it would in no way break Bitcoin [which I'm very bullish on... corrections and all]. It would only break models and theories such as s2f, 4 year cycle, and lengthening cycle.
Choose a method, all of which are different. But what they have in common is a criteria by which they could be invalidated. This is what makes them respectable.... their readiness to be wrong.
And then you have the - 'it could go up or down'. No matter how respectable it sounds, without this criteria of invalidation, without a solid prediction, you just have pseudo-scientific nonsense.
Run a mile from anyone who dances around or dodges this [criteria of invalidation], for their fear of being wrong only goes to show they don't understand the nature of TA, modeling, and theory... they don't even have a proper theory.
'More speculative on the short-term' means half expect it to be wrong. Why chart it then? It maps out a *real* possibility. Consider it a stress- test, and risk management TA.