Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Nov 22 to Nov 28 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d):
Very high mort: GR;AT (R-eff=1.16);
High mort: UK=1.06;DE;BE;NL;
Med mort: DK;NO;PT;CH;IT;
Low mort: ICL;FR;IRL;FL;LUX;
- Med circul (70<cases/100K pop/7d<140): SP=1.20; SE=1.11; MLT; low mort.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Rising-Surging in epidemic activity: Hung=1.15;Czechia=1.25; [Poland=1.17; Slovk=1.12];
- Plateauing: Croatia; [Russia];
- Landing : Bulgar; Lithuan; Moldav; Roman;Ukr;[Eston; Latvia; Serbia];
With alarming [very high] mort.

4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=0.96) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality (23.9% received 1 dose).
Underreporting from many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.11, 40.3% received 1 dose) is rising in its #COVID19 epid activ, medium mortality.
Qatar=1.04 is plateauing just above its safety zone, no mortality.
Lebanon=1.09 (27.2%), med mort.;
Israel=1.02 (73.5%) just above its safety zone, low mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.06)/Vietnam=1.11 are plateauing/rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low/medium mortality;
Malaysia=1.03; Mongolia=0.78; Thailand=0.94 high activity, with medium to high mortality, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
South Korea (R-eff=1.13) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mortality;
New-Zealand=1.04 and Australia=1.0 are flirting with their safety zone.
Singapore (87.4% 1 dose) landing, medium mortality;
China; Taiwan; Japan safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.04) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort, 80.6% 1 dose: red (>0.90) in all Provinces.
The USA=1.05, rising at high level, high mort. (69.9%), red in 48 states, but in Alaska, California (orange).

9/9 - Latin America -
Chile=0.99 (88.4% 1 dose); Uruguay=1.04 (80.2%); Colombia=1.04; Bolivia=1.18; Peru=1.15;Dom Rep=0.99 have left their #COVID19 safety zones.
Brazil; Mexico; Argentina: safe

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0