1/4 - France (R-eff=1.29) is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 25,789 cases and 57 deaths/day foreseen by Nov 29, if at same pace;
77.2% of pop 1 dose;
Forecast from Nov 23 to 26: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Five mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasing medium mortality, for 7 more days:
Corse (R-eff=1.25);
Hauts-de-France=1.29;
Ile-de-France=1.28;
Normandie=1.26.
Occitanie=1.35.
3/4 - Eight mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality, for 7 more days:
AURA (R-eff=1.37);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.36;
Bretagne=1.21;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.28;
Grand-Est=1.36;
Nouv-Aquitaine=1.34;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.22;
PACA=1.33.
4/4 – Two overseas Régions are experiencing a rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity:
Réunion (R-eff=1.16), with low mortality.
Martinique=1.15, with high mortality;
5/5 - Three overseas Régions are very close to their #COVID19 safety zone:
Guadeloupe (R-eff=0.84), with low mortality;
Guyane=0.73, with no expected mortality;
Mayotte=0.86, with no expected mortality.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
6/4 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/8 - Les pays du sud de l’Europe de l’ouest (FR, CH, IT, SP, PT, Malte) auxquels se joignent la Suède, la Finlande et peut-être la Norvège sauront-ils mettre à profit l’opportunité unique que représentent les 2-3 semaines de délai que leur accorde la vague pandémique automnale ?
2/8 - Ce ne sera probablement pas en espérant gagner quelques points sur l’hésitation vaccinale, ni sur la troisième dose, même si ils ne pourront pas nuire.
3/8 - Le port du masque en intérieur est bien entré dans les mœurs des Européens. Leurs gouvernements vont serrer encore les boulons de cette mesure, ce sera bienvenu mais cela ne suffira probablement pas non plus à enrayer la brutale montée des eaux.
1/5 - Switzerland (R-eff=1.24) is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity with 8,467 cases and 8 deaths/day foreseen by Nov. 30 at same pace.
Forecasts for cantons in this thread.
2/5 - Switzerland can be exceeding by the weekend its worst epidemic peak of cases of #COVID19 reached by Oct 30, 2020 (7,801 cases).
Mortality figures remains low (8 deaths/day), to be compared at similar level of incidence on Oct 30, 2020, when the country reported 53 deaths.
3/5 - Forecasted weekly average of #COVID19 cases will be:
> 1,000 cases/100 K pop. in Appenzell A. and Schwyz;
> 800 in Appenzell I., Glarus, Nidwalden, and Uri;
> 700 in Grisons, St-Gallen, Thurgau; Zug;
> 600 in Basel S., Schaffhausen;
> 500 in Basel L, Bern, Fribourg, Lucerne
2/9 - Western Europe
High #COVID19 circulation everywhere now:
Very high mort: GR; AT (R-eff=1.14);
High mort: UK=1.07;DE=1.17;BE;NL=1.18;
Med mort: DK;NO;PT;CH;IT;FR;
Low mort: ICL;IRL;FL;LUX;MLT;SE=1.17;SP=1.25;
3/9 - East-Central Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Rising-Surging in epidemic activity: Hung=1.17;Czechia=1.25; Slovk=1.12 [Poland=1.15];
- Plateauing: Croatia; [Russia];
- Landing : Bulgar; Latvia; Lithuan; Moldov; Ukr; [Eston; Roman; Serbia];
With alarming [very high] mort.
1/5 - France (R-eff=1.28) is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 27,940 cases and 75 deaths/day foreseen by Nov 30, if at same pace;
77.2% of pop 1 dose;
Forecast from Nov 24 to 27: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Six mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasing medium mortality, for 7 more days:
Centre-Val-Loire (R-eff=1.26);
Corse=1.25;
Hauts-de-France=1.28;
Ile-de-France=1.27;
Normandie=1.26.
Occitanie=1.33.
3/5 - Seven mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality, for 7 more days:
AURA (R-eff=1.35);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.35;
Bretagne=1.18;
Grand-Est=1.28;
Nouv-Aquitaine=1.24;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.20;
PACA=1.29.
2/9 - Western Europe
High #COVID19 circulation everywhere now:
Very high mort: GR; AT (R-eff=1.16);
High mort: UK=1.07;DE;BE;NL;
Med mort: DK;NO;PT;CH;IT;
Low mort: ICL;FR;IRL;FL;LUX;MLT;SE=1.11;SP=1.25;
3/9 - East-Central Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Rising-Surging in epidemic activity: Hung=1.18;Czechia=1.25; [Poland=1.17; Slovk=1.12];
- Plateauing: Croatia; [Russia];
- Landing : Bulgar; Latvia; Lithuan; Moldav; Roman; Ukr; [Eston; Serbia];
With alarming [very high] mort.
2/9 - Western Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d):
Very high mort: GR;AT (R-eff=1.16);
High mort: UK=1.06;DE;BE;NL;
Med mort: DK;NO;PT;CH;IT;
Low mort: ICL;FR;IRL;FL;LUX;
- Med circul (70<cases/100K pop/7d<140): SP=1.20; SE=1.11; MLT; low mort.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Rising-Surging in epidemic activity: Hung=1.15;Czechia=1.25; [Poland=1.17; Slovk=1.12];
- Plateauing: Croatia; [Russia];
- Landing : Bulgar; Lithuan; Moldav; Roman;Ukr;[Eston; Latvia; Serbia];
With alarming [very high] mort.