1/ Combining Value and Momentum (Fisher, Shah, Titman)

"Simultaneously incorporating both value and momentum reduces transaction costs and better utilizes the information from unfavorably-ranked value and momentum stocks in a long-only portfolio."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ Ranks are based on percentile of aggregate market cap that a stock is above for each factor.

Turnover = total amount bought or sold each month / portfolio size

Bid/ask spreads have fallen dramatically in the past few decades, so two estimates of transaction costs are used. ImageImageImageImage
3/ "Even though the percentage of aggregate market cap is similar for the small value and momentum portfolios, the small value portfolio tends to hold close to twice as many securities as the small momentum portfolio due to holding stocks with small market capitalizations." Image
4/ "From a practical perspective, the last two rows of Table 2 can be viewed as investing in one manager to obtain value exposure and another manager to obtain momentum exposure."
5/ "Avg. V/M score reflects the percentage of aggregate market cap that has the same or lower average momentum and value rank.

"This approach increases average returns by avoiding value stocks that have negative momentum and positive momentum stocks that are growth-oriented. Image
6/ "As a result, both the value and momentum factor exposures are higher than the linear combination of single factor value and momentum portfolios. Also, portfolio volatility drops, as value and momentum premiums are negatively correlated."
7/ "Both approaches that incorporate negative characteristic information by avoiding growth and negative momentum stocks improve risk-adjusted performance over single-factor portfolios that fail to incorporate this information due to the long-only constraint."
8/ "Avg. V/M has a larger adverse impact if trading costs are high. The second approach, which has greater exposure to the slow factor (HML) and less to the fast factor (MOM), is better if the return premium associated with the slow signal is large relative to the fast signal.
9/ "If the signals have high correlations to one another, the second approach is preferred, as the fast signal does not add much to performance but increases turnover. If the signals have negative or low correlations, the first approach is preferred for more diversification." Image
10/ "Despite the poor performance of momentum (2000-13), both techniques that jointly take into account both momentum and value characteristics have higher Sharpe ratios than the market, the pure-play value portfolio or the 70/30 linear combination of value and momentum. Image
11/ "So even when momentum does relatively poorly, there can be a benefit from combining momentum with value in an integrated portfolio (due to accounting for negative characteristic information instead of ignoring this information using single-factor long-only portfolios)."
12/ "Our evidence suggests that this advantage is also especially important for small capitalization stocks, where because of the higher costs of short-selling, it is more difficult for investors to express negative sentiment."
13/ Related reading:

Another Look at Trading Costs and Short-Term Reversal Profits


Long-Only Style Investing: Don't Just Mix, Integrate


Comparing Cost-Mitigation Techniques

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More from @ReformedTrader

25 Nov
1/ BST Holdings, LLC. v. OSHA (United States Court of Appeals, Fifth Circuit; Nov 12, 2021)

"This case concerns OSHA’s most recent ETS requiring employees of covered employers to undergo COVID-19 vaccination or take weekly COVID-19 tests & wear a mask."

casetext.com/case/bst-holdi…
2/ NOTE: The tone and degree of expressed certainty in this document runs counter to most of the academic papers I read (one reason I stay away from material sourced from politics and law).

As always, when policy makers are concerned, take everything with an extra grain of salt.
3/ "In its fifty-year history, OSHA has issued just ten emergency temporary standards (ETSs). Six were challenged in court; only one survived.

"We reaffirm our initial stay.
Read 13 tweets
25 Nov
1/ Failures of Pandemic Central Planning (Magness)

"Public health is acutely susceptible to knowledge problems, which foster the conditions for a public choice trap that causes proposed policy measures to become ineffectual or even counterproductive."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ "The criticisms of Snow – that he bucked scientific consensus, that his water-borne transmission theory contradicted a self-evident effect of widely observed odors, that he threatened to undermine the Health Board’s solutions to cholera – parallels the 2020 pandemic response." ImageImage
3/ "The governments of both the U.S. and U.K. effectively endorsed the catastrophic forecasts of the ICL model along with its prescriptive approach of forestalling massive casualties by enacting a series of lockdown-style NPIs intended to control the replication of the virus." Image
Read 18 tweets
25 Nov
1/ When face masks signal social identity: Explaining the deep face-mask divide during the COVID-19 pandemic

"We found strong evidence of in-group favoritism among both mask & non-mask wearers when information about the partner’s mask usage was known."

journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… Image
2/ "Instead of simply asking what mask & non-mask wearers think of each other, we look at how information about others’ mask-wearing behavior influences cooperation when real money is at stake.

"We recruited an even distribution of subjects from different political affiliations.
3/ "Our experiment consisted of two main stages of incentivized Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) games with & without subjects knowing their partners’ mask usage.

"Each subject’s answer to a hypothetical scenario was used to classify her as a mask wearer (MW) or a non-mask wearer (NMW). Image
Read 18 tweets
25 Nov
1/ Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial

"95% confidence intervals are compatible w/ 46% reduction to 23% increase in infection."
acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m2… Image
2/ "During the study period (3 April to 2 June 2020), Danish authorities did not recommend masking. Use was uncommon (<5%) outside hospitals.

"Participants were randomly assigned to mask/control groups.

"Those in the mask group received 50 3-layer, disposable surgical masks." Image
3/ "Participants received follow-up surveys to collect information on antibody test results, adherence to recommendations on time spent outside the home, development of symptoms, COVID-19 diagnosis based on PCR testing done in public hospitals, and known COVID-19 exposures." ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov
1/ Institutional Investors and Stock Return Anomalies (Edelen, Ince, Kadlec)

"At the one-year horizon, institutions have a strong tendency to buy overvalued stocks (anomalies' short legs) and which have particularly negative ex-post abnormal returns."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ SIH = sophisticated institutions hypothesis (agents trading in a way that exploits anomaly return predictability)

"We assign anomalies to seven broad categories, choosing the one from each category with the most reliable alpha (highest t-statistic) during our sample period." ImageImageImage
3/ "Because our central hypothesis centers around how institutional investors modify their portfolios as stocks take on anomaly characteristics, we examine changes in holdings rather than levels. We focus on the number of institutions holding a stock rather than % shares held." ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
21 Nov
1/ Global Assessment of the Impact of Masking on COVID-19: A Country Level Comparative and Retrospective Analyses Using the Richards Model (Mamun, Vejerano)

"Laboratory and modeling studies did not translate to a measurable difference in the real world."

europepmc.org/article/ppr/pp…
2/ "We are unaware of studies assessing masks’ effectiveness using real cases from multiple countries.

"The filtration efficiency of ordinary surgical (~12%) or cloth-based masks (~10%) is inferior to high-efficiency masks (≥95%). Aerosol leakage is also higher due to poor fit.
3/ "The Richards model can reasonably estimate the time when a phase shift occurs during an outbreak (turning point, ti), the infection rate (r), the exponential nature of the epidemic (α).

"It applies best for a curve consisting of a single high peak and a turning point."
Read 17 tweets

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