1/ BST Holdings, LLC. v. OSHA (United States Court of Appeals, Fifth Circuit; Nov 12, 2021)

"This case concerns OSHA’s most recent ETS requiring employees of covered employers to undergo COVID-19 vaccination or take weekly COVID-19 tests & wear a mask."

casetext.com/case/bst-holdi…
2/ NOTE: The tone and degree of expressed certainty in this document runs counter to most of the academic papers I read (one reason I stay away from material sourced from politics and law).

As always, when policy makers are concerned, take everything with an extra grain of salt.
3/ "In its fifty-year history, OSHA has issued just ten emergency temporary standards (ETSs). Six were challenged in court; only one survived.

"We reaffirm our initial stay.
4/ "OSHA likely could not be, under Commerce Clause & nondelegation doctrine, intended to authorize a workplace safety administration in the deep recesses of federal bureaucracy to make sweeping pronouncements on public health affecting every member of society in profound ways.
5/ "The Mandate at issue here is anything but a “delicate exercise” of this “extraordinary power.” It is a one size-fits-all sledgehammer that makes hardly any attempt to account for differences in workplaces (and workers) bear on workers’ varying degrees of susceptibility."
6/ "OSHA’s attempt to shoehorn an airborne virus that is both widely present in society (and thus not particular to any workplace) and non-life-threatening to a vast majority of employees into a neighboring phrase connoting toxicity and poisonousness is yet another stretch."
7/ "OSHA is required to make findings of exposure—or at least the presence of COVID-19—in _all_ covered workplaces.... This kind of overbreadth plagues the Mandate generally."
8/ "All else equal, a 28-year-old trucker spending his workday in the solitude of his cab is less vulnerable than a 62-year-old prison janitor. Likewise, a naturally immune unvaccinated worker is presumably at less risk than an unvaccinated worker who has never had the virus."
9/ "The Mandate derives its authority from an old statute employed in a novel manner, imposes $3 billion in compliance costs, involves broad medical considerations outside OSHA’s core competencies, & purports to definitively resolve one of today’s most hotly debated issues."
10/ "There is no clear expression of congressional intent to convey OSHA such broad authority, and this court will not infer one.

"The States, too, have an interest in seeing their constitutionally reserved police power over public health policy defended from federal overreach.
11/ "The public interest is served by maintaining our constitutional structure and maintaining the liberty of individuals to make intensely personal decisions according to their own convictions—even, or perhaps particularly, when those decisions frustrate government officials.
12/ "Health agencies do not make housing policy, and occupational safety administrations do not make health policy. In seeking to do so here, OSHA runs afoul of the statute from which it draws its power.
13/ "Enforcement remains STAYED pending adequate judicial review of the petitioners’ underlying motions for a permanent injunction.

"IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that OSHA take no steps to implement or enforce the Mandate until further court order."

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More from @ReformedTrader

25 Nov
1/ Failures of Pandemic Central Planning (Magness)

"Public health is acutely susceptible to knowledge problems, which foster the conditions for a public choice trap that causes proposed policy measures to become ineffectual or even counterproductive."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "The criticisms of Snow – that he bucked scientific consensus, that his water-borne transmission theory contradicted a self-evident effect of widely observed odors, that he threatened to undermine the Health Board’s solutions to cholera – parallels the 2020 pandemic response."
3/ "The governments of both the U.S. and U.K. effectively endorsed the catastrophic forecasts of the ICL model along with its prescriptive approach of forestalling massive casualties by enacting a series of lockdown-style NPIs intended to control the replication of the virus."
Read 18 tweets
25 Nov
1/ When face masks signal social identity: Explaining the deep face-mask divide during the COVID-19 pandemic

"We found strong evidence of in-group favoritism among both mask & non-mask wearers when information about the partner’s mask usage was known."

journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
2/ "Instead of simply asking what mask & non-mask wearers think of each other, we look at how information about others’ mask-wearing behavior influences cooperation when real money is at stake.

"We recruited an even distribution of subjects from different political affiliations.
3/ "Our experiment consisted of two main stages of incentivized Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) games with & without subjects knowing their partners’ mask usage.

"Each subject’s answer to a hypothetical scenario was used to classify her as a mask wearer (MW) or a non-mask wearer (NMW).
Read 18 tweets
25 Nov
1/ Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial

"95% confidence intervals are compatible w/ 46% reduction to 23% increase in infection."
acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m2…
2/ "During the study period (3 April to 2 June 2020), Danish authorities did not recommend masking. Use was uncommon (<5%) outside hospitals.

"Participants were randomly assigned to mask/control groups.

"Those in the mask group received 50 3-layer, disposable surgical masks."
3/ "Participants received follow-up surveys to collect information on antibody test results, adherence to recommendations on time spent outside the home, development of symptoms, COVID-19 diagnosis based on PCR testing done in public hospitals, and known COVID-19 exposures."
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov
1/ Institutional Investors and Stock Return Anomalies (Edelen, Ince, Kadlec)

"At the one-year horizon, institutions have a strong tendency to buy overvalued stocks (anomalies' short legs) and which have particularly negative ex-post abnormal returns."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ SIH = sophisticated institutions hypothesis (agents trading in a way that exploits anomaly return predictability)

"We assign anomalies to seven broad categories, choosing the one from each category with the most reliable alpha (highest t-statistic) during our sample period."
3/ "Because our central hypothesis centers around how institutional investors modify their portfolios as stocks take on anomaly characteristics, we examine changes in holdings rather than levels. We focus on the number of institutions holding a stock rather than % shares held."
Read 18 tweets
22 Nov
1/ Combining Value and Momentum (Fisher, Shah, Titman)

"Simultaneously incorporating both value and momentum reduces transaction costs and better utilizes the information from unfavorably-ranked value and momentum stocks in a long-only portfolio."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ Ranks are based on percentile of aggregate market cap that a stock is above for each factor.

Turnover = total amount bought or sold each month / portfolio size

Bid/ask spreads have fallen dramatically in the past few decades, so two estimates of transaction costs are used. ImageImageImageImage
3/ "Even though the percentage of aggregate market cap is similar for the small value and momentum portfolios, the small value portfolio tends to hold close to twice as many securities as the small momentum portfolio due to holding stocks with small market capitalizations." Image
Read 13 tweets
21 Nov
1/ Global Assessment of the Impact of Masking on COVID-19: A Country Level Comparative and Retrospective Analyses Using the Richards Model (Mamun, Vejerano)

"Laboratory and modeling studies did not translate to a measurable difference in the real world."

europepmc.org/article/ppr/pp…
2/ "We are unaware of studies assessing masks’ effectiveness using real cases from multiple countries.

"The filtration efficiency of ordinary surgical (~12%) or cloth-based masks (~10%) is inferior to high-efficiency masks (≥95%). Aerosol leakage is also higher due to poor fit.
3/ "The Richards model can reasonably estimate the time when a phase shift occurs during an outbreak (turning point, ti), the infection rate (r), the exponential nature of the epidemic (α).

"It applies best for a curve consisting of a single high peak and a turning point."
Read 17 tweets

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