The correlation between Trump's share of the vote in 2016 and the percentage of people fully vaccinated in that state is an absurdly high -0.85. As someone who runs all kind of data analysis in the social sciences, getting this kind of a correlation is nearly impossible. Image
In states where Trump received <40% of the vote, 67% are fully vaccinated.

In states where Trump received >60%, 48% are fully vaccinated.

Trump's vote share explains 73% of the variation in vaccination rates. Increasing it by 1% decreases the vaccination rate by 0.68%. Image
I suspect there are 3 separate causal mechanisms.

1.Trump voters are less likely to get vaccinated.

2. Trump voters in a position of authority are disproportionately likely to discourage vaccination.

3. GOP-ruled states take fewer Covid-related precautions (e.g., lockdowns).
The risk of dying from a Covid infection is 14 times higher for the unvaccinated and the risk of infection itself is 6 times higher. We're talking about tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of unnecessary deaths based on political loyalties.…
Here's a county-level graph of Trump's 2020 vote share and the current vaccination rate in Georgia. Correlation isn't nearly as strong (-0.41), but still clearly in the same direction. #gapol Image
I realize this site is composed of several echo chambers and I'm getting a visit from one that doesn't quite share my beliefs. If I may be so bold: nothing is gained by someone making a generic statement about how stats can be wrong if they don't show how THESE stats are wrong.
And these are the kind of invaluable insights one obtains from conversing with the other echo chamber. But hey, I'm sure high confidence in one mistaken believe isn't correlated with high confidence in other mistaken beliefs. Image
I believe the social science equivalent to the Hippocratic Oath is the Hypo-Deductive Oath: I swear by Bayes the Mathematician to pre-register my studies and to not engage in p-hacking.

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More from @grudkev

25 Aug
As the Taliban cements its grasp on power, it would be wise for American policymakers to learn what their red lines are and what they're prepared to compromise on. If you ask for everything, you'll get nothing.
The Taliban does want some things from the West. Mainly recognition and foreign aid. I'm sure they'd be willing to make some moderate concessions for each. But they're not going to give in their central vision for the country nor accept anything that jeopardizes their rule.
People keep treating the Taliban as a unified, centralized movement when we know it's anything but. The Taliban leadership's main constituency are its fighters. It's pointless even asking for things that would seriously anger those fighters. Like caving in to Western demands.
Read 7 tweets
17 May
This is what a formal military alliance with Russia buys you.
Russia's alliance system presents countries with interesting trade-offs. Joining entails giving up most of your foreign policy autonomy & making extensive economic concessions. In exchange, you get offers of mediation when a rival tries to invade what you think is your territory.
It's also good to remember that Russia invaded Georgia when both were part of CIS, despite that organization having some elements of a military alliance. Russia also invaded Ukraine despite being one of the parties (Budapest Memorandum) assuring Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov 20
Biden will win the popular vote by 4-5%. If he did 0.75% worse, this would be the electoral map. A similar vote tally in House and Senate elections gives the Dems a bare majority of House seats and 48-50 Senate ones. The GOP can control every branch of gov't on 48.5% of the vote.
With GOP legislatures in control of the redistricting process in most states, it's conceivable that an identical 4-5% popular defeat in 2024 will hand the House to the Republican Party. The same is likely true for the Senate.
The results are even more lopsided at the state level. A 4-5% national majority failed to flip a single State House or Senate to the Democrats (instead they lost both in NH and likely lost one in Alaska). Democrats now control 18.5 state legislatures.…
Read 6 tweets
17 Feb 20
Time for a thread on the USSR, since some on the left seem to have a soft spot for the communist regime. Here's why any sane progressive would have opposed the Soviet Union. I'll even exclude Stalin's quarter-century-long reign.
While the USSR did initially expand rights of women, it was far from progressive by the end of its existence. Women were banned from hundreds of occupations, including the best-paying ones. Yes, wages were not equal. Male-dominated fields paid far more.…
Only 3 women ever served as a full member of the Soviet Politburo (its highest policy-making body). The final Politburo (1990-1991) had 1 female full member (Galina Semenova) out of 20+. She was the first female full member since 1960.…
Read 15 tweets
10 Dec 19
After watching Russian news for the past few days, I can say without any exaggeration that a regular viewer is far better positioned to understand the world around them than someone who watches Fox News. While Russian news has a clear pro-Putin bias, most stories are informative.
You could catch the one news item intended to make the West look bad. And there's always a story that makes Putin look good. But beyond those, most of the news items wouldn't be out of place on a 2nd-tier American news network. The only fantasy is about Russia's global standing.
What you don't see on Russian TV is the framing of each story as being a part of an overarching narrative glorifying Putin. Most news is just news. The propaganda (for the most part) is an ad hoc addition. Compare that to Fox News, where a majority of news items relate to Trump.
Read 8 tweets
19 Mar 19
Kazakh president Nazarbayev has resigned! Unexpected to say the least.
To put this resignation in perspective, this is only the third time in Central Asian post-Soviet history that a leader stepped down without a metaphorical gun to his head (both of the other instances were in Kyrgyzstan).
Nazarbayev was the 8th longest serving de facto ruler in the world. Central Asia does still have Rahmon, who comes in at #12 (with Nazarbayev gone).
Read 8 tweets

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