Let's sum up JP Morgan's "lawsuit" against Tesla:

โ–ช๏ธJP Morgan ๐™จ๐™๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ TSLA by writing thousands of calls (warrants) to Tesla with a strike of ~$50 & buying ~$140 calls: a so-called "bearish spread".
โ–ช๏ธThey issued fake analyst price targets for years to suppress TSLA

1/
2/

โ–ช๏ธWhen their TSLA short position went against JP Morgan, they unilaterally & without any right to do so lowered the strike of the $140 calls to ~$100...
โ–ช๏ธJP Morgan's excuse to steal from Tesla was that Elon once tweeted: "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420."
3/

โ–ช๏ธWhen Tesla "only" provided the number of shares JP Morgan was due according to the $140 strike calls JP Morgan actually purchased, JP Morgan sued because of "SEC, $420 tweet and Elon" (paraphrased).
โ–ช๏ธ๐—ง๐—Ÿ;๐——๐—ฅ: JP Morgan has no case & will be laughed out of court:
4/

But much more is at stake: Wall Street shorted TSLA to the tune of $2.7b in massive options bets (!), which they have to pay to Tesla in the next 3 years (!!).

See my earlier thread & summary about the exact strikes & cash sums Tesla will be paid:

5/

โ–ช๏ธThe identity of the banks who shorted TSLA, and to what degree, was kept a secret for years.
โ–ช๏ธBut last year I correctly guessed that the biggest Tesla short on Wall Street was JP Morgan:

6/

Update: JP Morgan participated in the 2021 convertibles - but not in the 2022 and 2024 ones, as pointed out by @stekkerauto.

Full details of the $2.7b short bet against Tesla still unknown.

SEC filing of JP Morgan's role in the 2021 convertibles:

sec.gov/Archives/edgarโ€ฆ

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More from @truth_tesla

20 Nov
The black Tesla Model Y below was probably made in Giga Berlin ๐ŸŽ‰:

โ–ช๏ธNo license plate, because pre-production unit. Since there's no delivery center nearby, there's no reason to have a plate-less car here.
โ–ช๏ธThey want to start with Performance/Dual Motor units.
โ–ช๏ธ@elonmusk: ๐Ÿค? Image
I'd say it's possibly the black Model Y seen leaving the factory floor this week.

๐ŸŽ‰

Image
Another possibility, pointed out by @Akkur1992, is that it's one of the test drive Model Y's used at the October Gigafest.

I found an image, and the color & wheels match: Image
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
@AswathDamodaran Professor Damodaran, I'd like to thank you for your honesty, for admitting that you were wrong about Tesla & for your self-reflection. Not a common trait among Tesla bears. I'm a long-time fan of your "Musings on Markets" blog - while disagreeing with your Tesla thesis. ๐Ÿ™ƒ

1/
@AswathDamodaran 2/

Here's a list of key points where I think you are mistaken in your Tesla valuation:

โ–ช๏ธWhy cap (net) margins at 16%? The fact that Tesla already has 30.5% gross margins despite 70% YoY hyper-growth expenses is a strong signal that operational efficiency hasn't peaked yet.
@AswathDamodaran 3/

โ–ช๏ธWith a +70% YoY growth rate Tesla has countless operational inefficiencies, both incidental and unavoidable ones: expansion of facilities & hiring has to lead actual sales by several quarters, and much of it isn't capex but increases cost of revenues, opex / SG&A.
Read 26 tweets
30 Oct
Shameless: the infamous $4,500 "UAW bribe" in the "Build Back Better Act" (H.R. 5376) excludes employee-owned US car factories, such as Tesla, even if they form a union (!).

It defines "Domestic Assembly Qualifications" in a way that requires 50%+ non-shareholder employees...
Sources:

โ–ช๏ธLatest House version of the bill:
congress.gov/bill/117th-conโ€ฆ
โ–ช๏ธIRS (26 U.S. Code ยง 7701) code it references:
law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26โ€ฆ

See 7701(a)(46), it excludes unions with 50%+ shareholder-members.

I.e. Tesla workers would be excluded even if they formed a union ...
Why do they need this anti-shareholder language? So that the UAW can maintain its tax-exempt status under IRS 501(c)(5)...

Note the nauseating taxation double standard: the UAW and its investments are 100% tax-free (!) under 501(c)(5) - such as their huge stake in GM ...
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep
@nealboudette @earcos @elonmusk For every robotaxi projection that turned out to be too optimistic (during a pandemic year...), there's a dozen improbable feats Musk already accomplished:

โœ… landing rockets,
โœ… a million Teslas,
โœ… launching astronauts,
โœ… Space Internet,
โœ… fastest production car, etc.

1/
@nealboudette @earcos @elonmusk 2/

Musk is a self-admitted, incorrigible optimist about deadlines, but he always delivers.

As a NYT journalist, why are you defining Musk by his failed self-imposed deadlines, instead of by what matters: by his successful accomplishments? ๐Ÿค”
@nealboudette @earcos @elonmusk 3/

Why are you, as a NYT journalists, deriding Musk with ridicule & contempt?

Are you discriminating against Musk just because he's an autistic introvert, not compatible with your life experience of an extroverted journalist? ๐Ÿค”

Eye movements of a neurodivergent introvert:
Read 6 tweets
2 Apr
Tesla's all-time record deliveries of 184.8k vehicles is extremely impressive, given the countless Q1 headwinds:

โŒ Q1 seasonally weakest (winter) quarter for auto sales: a 10-20% headwind
โŒ Tesla had no Model S/X production due to the Plaid refresh: ~15k units missing

1/
2/

โŒ China: the quarter was 10 days shorter due to the Chinese New Year and the calendar quarter being 2 days shorter. That's 10 days of missing sales & production days.
โŒ US: some buyers were possibly waiting for the new federal EV incentives
โŒ Samsung Texas factory shutdown
3/

โŒ Europe: many key markets are in partial or full Covid lock-downs, such as the Netherlands which was on a hard lock-down for the whole quarter.
โŒ Tesla had a 2-day production shutdown at Fremont, due to parts shortages.
โŒ Model 3 cannibalized by ramping Model Y
Read 4 tweets
2 Apr
Large convolutional neural networks are computing-intense, with two distinct modes of operation:

โœ… "training" an NN: over 100,000 GPU hours
โœ… "inference": running an NN in the car

Tesla has built supercomputer-performance chips for both workloads.

blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/08/2โ€ฆ

1/
2/

Tesla has yet to disclose details about their "Dojo" training chip, here's the CPU die layout of their inference chip.

The large integrated SRAM cells & the single-clock 96x96 matrix multiplicators allow Tesla HW3 boards to run large NNs at unmatched power efficiency.
3/

Power efficiency is the primary limit of consumer grade, mass-adopted autonomy (self-driving in every car): while current top of the line GPUs are able to perform inference computing at a performance comparable to Tesla's FSD chip, they do it while drawing ~10x more power.
Read 4 tweets

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