โช๏ธJP Morgan ๐จ๐๐ค๐ง๐ฉ๐๐ TSLA by writing thousands of calls (warrants) to Tesla with a strike of ~$50 & buying ~$140 calls: a so-called "bearish spread".
โช๏ธThey issued fake analyst price targets for years to suppress TSLA
โช๏ธWhen their TSLA short position went against JP Morgan, they unilaterally & without any right to do so lowered the strike of the $140 calls to ~$100...
โช๏ธJP Morgan's excuse to steal from Tesla was that Elon once tweeted: "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420."
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โช๏ธWhen Tesla "only" provided the number of shares JP Morgan was due according to the $140 strike calls JP Morgan actually purchased, JP Morgan sued because of "SEC, $420 tweet and Elon" (paraphrased).
โช๏ธ๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ: JP Morgan has no case & will be laughed out of court:
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But much more is at stake: Wall Street shorted TSLA to the tune of $2.7b in massive options bets (!), which they have to pay to Tesla in the next 3 years (!!).
See my earlier thread & summary about the exact strikes & cash sums Tesla will be paid:
โช๏ธThe identity of the banks who shorted TSLA, and to what degree, was kept a secret for years.
โช๏ธBut last year I correctly guessed that the biggest Tesla short on Wall Street was JP Morgan:
The black Tesla Model Y below was probably made in Giga Berlin ๐:
โช๏ธNo license plate, because pre-production unit. Since there's no delivery center nearby, there's no reason to have a plate-less car here.
โช๏ธThey want to start with Performance/Dual Motor units.
โช๏ธ@elonmusk: ๐ค?
@AswathDamodaran Professor Damodaran, I'd like to thank you for your honesty, for admitting that you were wrong about Tesla & for your self-reflection. Not a common trait among Tesla bears. I'm a long-time fan of your "Musings on Markets" blog - while disagreeing with your Tesla thesis. ๐
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Here's a list of key points where I think you are mistaken in your Tesla valuation:
โช๏ธWhy cap (net) margins at 16%? The fact that Tesla already has 30.5% gross margins despite 70% YoY hyper-growth expenses is a strong signal that operational efficiency hasn't peaked yet.
โช๏ธWith a +70% YoY growth rate Tesla has countless operational inefficiencies, both incidental and unavoidable ones: expansion of facilities & hiring has to lead actual sales by several quarters, and much of it isn't capex but increases cost of revenues, opex / SG&A.
Shameless: the infamous $4,500 "UAW bribe" in the "Build Back Better Act" (H.R. 5376) excludes employee-owned US car factories, such as Tesla, even if they form a union (!).
It defines "Domestic Assembly Qualifications" in a way that requires 50%+ non-shareholder employees...
@nealboudette@earcos@elonmusk For every robotaxi projection that turned out to be too optimistic (during a pandemic year...), there's a dozen improbable feats Musk already accomplished:
โ landing rockets,
โ a million Teslas,
โ launching astronauts,
โ Space Internet,
โ fastest production car, etc.
Musk is a self-admitted, incorrigible optimist about deadlines, but he always delivers.
As a NYT journalist, why are you defining Musk by his failed self-imposed deadlines, instead of by what matters: by his successful accomplishments? ๐ค
Why are you, as a NYT journalists, deriding Musk with ridicule & contempt?
Are you discriminating against Musk just because he's an autistic introvert, not compatible with your life experience of an extroverted journalist? ๐ค
Tesla's all-time record deliveries of 184.8k vehicles is extremely impressive, given the countless Q1 headwinds:
โ Q1 seasonally weakest (winter) quarter for auto sales: a 10-20% headwind
โ Tesla had no Model S/X production due to the Plaid refresh: ~15k units missing
โ China: the quarter was 10 days shorter due to the Chinese New Year and the calendar quarter being 2 days shorter. That's 10 days of missing sales & production days.
โ US: some buyers were possibly waiting for the new federal EV incentives
โ Samsung Texas factory shutdown
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โ Europe: many key markets are in partial or full Covid lock-downs, such as the Netherlands which was on a hard lock-down for the whole quarter.
โ Tesla had a 2-day production shutdown at Fremont, due to parts shortages.
โ Model 3 cannibalized by ramping Model Y
Tesla has yet to disclose details about their "Dojo" training chip, here's the CPU die layout of their inference chip.
The large integrated SRAM cells & the single-clock 96x96 matrix multiplicators allow Tesla HW3 boards to run large NNs at unmatched power efficiency.
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Power efficiency is the primary limit of consumer grade, mass-adopted autonomy (self-driving in every car): while current top of the line GPUs are able to perform inference computing at a performance comparable to Tesla's FSD chip, they do it while drawing ~10x more power.