Rob Lee Profile picture
24 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
What is interesting is that the different screens we've seen almost appear to have different purposes. Some can carry sandbags or other material, some are not strongly built, some cover much or little of the turret, etc. They're clearly experimenting to see if it works. ImageImageImageImage
The screen in the 1st photo clearly isn't designed to withstand a Javelin, but it could lead a PGM to try to attack the screen rather than the tank beneath. That might be more effective against older PGMs. The screens in the 2nd photo might be effective against weaker munitions. ImageImage
Many of the TB2 MAM-L strikes in Karabakh on tanks weren't K-Kills, so you may not need that much additional defenses to protect the crew from them. Same goes for loitering munitions that aren't designed to counter armor, or UAVs dropping small munitions.
I also suppose the higher silhouette of the tank with the screen means that someone operating an older SACLOS ATGM in direct fire mode at longer range might aim higher and miss the tank, too. Though I doubt that is why they're using the screens.

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More from @RALee85

26 Nov
I thought this was a useful piece but there are some mistakes. The Western and Southern Military Districts both have 3 MTO brigades, not 2. Russian units also sometimes have unique a TO&E, so I'm not sure we can assume they each have the same # of trucks/capabilities. Image
Ultimately, preventing a fait accompli requires resistance. In such a (highly unlikely) scenario, Russia would likely rely on lighter units (VDV, spetsnaz, MR on BTRs), to quickly seize key terrain. If attacking forces faced resistance in every direction, it will take time. 2/
I'm not sure logistics capability is the limiting factor here, though it is obviously something useful to target and disrupt. The attacker can still succeed if it achieves surprise, and the defender isn't prepared to resist immediately. 3/
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
Some context for this graphic from the Ukrainian MoD. BTG=battalion tactical group. A BTG is a combined-arms unit typically with 700-900 troops. Russia has 168 permanent readiness BTGs in total, which means ~1/4 of Russia's BTGs are currently near Ukraine.
militarytimes.com/flashpoints/20…
According to the Ukrainian MoD, there were 53 there in April and 51 in September during the Zapad 2021 exercise in Belarus and Russia's Western Military District, which was ~1/3rd of Russia's BTGs. The BTG figure includes motorized rifle, tank, naval infantry, and VDV units. 2/
The graphic also shows 16 fewer ships in the area than April. Russia sent 2 Ropucha landing ships from both the Northern and Baltic Fleets then and ~15 boats from the Caspian flotilla, including 3 patrol boats and 8 landing craft. Thus, most of these ships have likely left. 3/
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
The Belarusian MoD announced that a joint battalion tactical group of Russian paratroopers and Belarusian SSO/SOF parachuted from Russian Il-76 aircraft at the the Gozhsky range in Belarus as a readiness check amidst the buildup near Belarus' border.
t.me/modmilby/9352
The Gozhsky range is in northwestern Belarus near Grodno and the borders with both Lithuania and Poland. During Zapad, Russian and Belarusian paratroopers conducted airborne exercises at the Brestky range near Poland but with notice. This is certainly not a routine exercise. 2/
The press release states that the joint force will practice capturing and holding a bridgehead, as well as searching for and destroying sabotage/recon groups and illegal armed formations before returning to their permanent bases. 3/
Read 24 tweets
3 Nov
These kind of garbage tabloid articles (no one surrendered and 40 Commando was teamed with US Marine units) are the kind of thing that threaten future US-UK exercises, which are beneficial for both sides. They also mistake the purpose of these exercises.
These exercises commonly involve resets when exercises reach a point where the training value decreases, they were operating under different rules (e.g. the defenders in this exercise were allowed to regenerate after they sustained casualties but the attackers weren't), etc. 2/
These exercises should involve failures, especially as the US Marine Corps changes its focus to fighting a high-end fight with a peer adversary and tests new TTPs. The one part that was accurate is that 40 Commando, as always, did a great job. 3/
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov
The FSVTS' Dmitry Shugaev did an interview with RBK. He said Russia's arms export portfolio is currently worth $52 billion, and he said India and China are potential future customers of the S-500 (once the Russian military receives enough first).
rbc.ru/politics/02/11…
He said in 2021 Russia delivered to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Su-30SM, Mi-35M, Buk-M2E, BTR-80 and BTR-82A, Orlan-10E UAVs, Typhoon-K MRAPs, and small arms. 2/
Shugaev called Armenian and Azerbaijan both strategic partners and said Russia's interest is in preserving peace and stability in the region. He said Russian annual arms export volumes to MENA countries has not dropped below $6 billion over the past five years. 3/
Read 5 tweets
1 Nov
Putin: "the Aerospace Forces, one of the most powerful, high-tech, and maneuverable branches of the modern Russian military. Russia’s reliable protection from an aerospace attack and maintaining strategic parity directly depend on their combat readiness and technical equipment."
"some of our foreign colleagues have not abandoned their attempts to undermine this parity, including by deploying elements of their global missile defense systems in the immediate vicinity of our borders. We cannot fail to notice these threats to Russia's security" 2/ Image
"Under the state armament program, over the past four years, 25 S-400 systems and over 70 modern fighter jets have been produced, and more than 20 S-300 systems and 90 aircraft have been modernized." 3/
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Read 6 tweets

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