This is getting some traction again thanks to @jonathanweisman’s piece yesterday and the controversy regarding his framing of it (which I have mixed feelings about), so here it is again: acasignups.net/21/11/17/red-s…
Here’s what the cumulative COVID county-level death rate looked like by Trump’s 2020 vote as of July 2020, after the first wave ended. It was 7.6x higher in the Bluest tenth of the country than the Reddest tenth. Image
By Election Day 2020, the Reddest counties had already started to @catch up:” The bluest bracket was only twice as high cumulatively as the reddest bracket: Image
By New Year’s Day 2021, the death rate in the Bluest bracket was just 12% higher than the Reddest bracket: Image
As @LOLGOP noted, this made my jaw drop when I noticed it: January 20, 2021, just happened to be the day that the cumulative COVID death rate in Red America began to surpass that of Blue America. Even the *averages* of the bluest 50% & reddest 50% brackets are almost dead even. Image
By July 2021 (right when Delta started to hit the U.S.), the script had flipped: The rate in the reddest tenth was 14% *higher* than in the bluest tenth: Image
That brings us to mid-November: The last bracket is now nearly 50% higher than the first cumulatively: Image
Here’s what it looks like in 2-week increments from March 2020 - November 2021:
Here’s my post from a month ago (an update to an earlier version from September) which made the same points that Weismann did yesterday. The debate is over the *framing* of the same ugly realities: acasignups.net/21/11/03/simpl…
Finally, here’s the post with the actual data cited by Weismann in his NY Times story yesterday for completeness: acasignups.net/21/11/22/weekl…

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More from @charles_gaba

24 Nov
For those criticizing @jonathanweisman's framing (especially by citing my own data/analysis in response):

First, while I appreciate the props, if you read the article, you'll see that *he* actually cites that exact same data/analysis in the article itself. 1/
The issue is how the same data & the same empirical data is *framed*.

In this post, I stated that the GOP is shrugging off thousands of their own voters dying as "a small price to pay" in return for driving Biden's approval down, and that it's working:
acasignups.net/21/11/03/simpl…
This is pretty much identical to @jonathanweisman's story (which, again, cites my own data to drive home this point).

The difference? My blog post clearly presents this truth as being horrifying & inhumane, while some feel his *tweet* frames it as a clever political strategy.
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: For those who followed my state-by-state county-level vaccination breakout, here's all 3,144 U.S. counties (+ the territories) with some additional context/details:
acasignups.net/21/11/23/weekl…
📣 For stats folks: Here's how the national county-level R-squared has changed since February. Notice how from mid-March through around mid-September the R^2 increased regardless of other methodology/policy changes. Since then it has leveled off:
Here's the same data in bar graph mode, with each bracket having roughly the same number of U.S. residents.

Notice how the vaxx drop-off is fairly mild until the Trump vote hits around 50%...at which it drops off rapidly:
Read 6 tweets
22 Nov
📣📣 It's been several months, so it's time once again to look at the *county-level* COVID vaccination rates of all 50 states by 2020 partisan lean.

As always, these graphs only include county residents who've received 2 Pfizer/Moderna or 1 J&J dose (boosters not included yet).
📣📣 Other important caveats:

--Every state has a small percent of total vaccinated residents whose county of residence is unknown; those aren't included here.

--The vaccination rates are out of the TOTAL population, not just adults/over 12/over 5.
ALABAMA:
Read 54 tweets
21 Nov
🎉 I’m happy to report I’ve now raised over $90,000 for Dems up & down the ticket this cycle! Help keep it going! Image
Read 6 tweets
21 Nov
I’m old enough to remember when people criticized me for making this obvious observation after meticulously tracking it for months.
🎤✋ Image
"No one could have predicted..."
acasignups.net/21/11/15/weekl…
Read 7 tweets

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