The uncertainty around #omicron is stressful and uncomfortable.

But one reason we have so little to go on, is that this variant was identified very early. The earlier we find new variants, the less time they have had to show us what they do in the real world - and that’s good.
This is why we need to make sure that the tools for early detection and sequencing of variants are available everywhere around the globe.
And it is why we should be thankful for the stellar work scientists in South Africa have done in the last days, weeks and months.
Announcing something like this very early also carries a risk and scientists have to be willing to take that risk. I chatted with @Tuliodna last night and he said: "One thing that this pandemic taught us is that acting fast is key."
@Tuliodna “We do risk a massive backlash in case the Omicron VOC does not cause a massive wave of infection and can be controled. But this is a risk that I am comfortable to live with as the pandemic has caused so many deaths and suffering”, @Tuliodna told me.
@Tuliodna You can argue a lot about whether travel restrictions are the right way to respond to all this. They clearly have many negative impacts and a big one is that they make it less likely that other countries will go out on a limb this early to announce a variant that *may* be bad.
@Tuliodna As Kristian Andersen told me, countries could increase screening or put quarantine protocols in place.
“But instead of closing down airspace, you send additional planes there with the vaccines and get as many people vaccinated as fast as possible."
@Tuliodna And @JeremyFarrar pointed out that these travel restrictions are only likely to slow down the spread of a new variant not stop it. “It buys you time. The question is what you then do with that time, and you know, we don't have that many options."
@Tuliodna @JeremyFarrar In the end, Omicron is only a reminder to do what we should be doing anyway:
Vaccinating everyone and
using other public health measures to drive down transmission of this virus.

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More from @kakape

27 Nov
I think what many people do not appreciate is just how uncertain even scientists are right now. I’ve talked to more than a dozen researchers in the last 24 hours about #omicron, many of them several times.
And their assessment is shifting too as new bits of information come in.
Imagine you’re doing a puzzle not knowing what the final picture will be and all you have are a few pieces. In the beginning every new piece can change your mind: It’s a picture of the sky. No, wait the sea. Oh, a ship…
And some pieces may not even belong to this puzzle...
As Kristian Andersen told me today: “You get sort of like little little bits and pieces of data, right? But you know that you can't trust any of it with any sort of confidence. So it's like: Well, do you trust this more or do you trust that more?”
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
Die @Leopoldina hat gerade eine Stellungnahme veröffentlicht. Sie fordert:
- die Einführung einer Impfpflicht
- neue Maßnahmen, um Kontakte zu reduzieren (eine Art Lockdown light oder strikte, sanktionierte 2G-Regelung)
- Maskenpflicht und Tests an Schulen
leopoldina.org/publikationen/…
@Leopoldina Die Stellungnahme ist kurz und ich würde mir wünschen, dass jeder (besonders jeder Politiker) sie liest.

Geht schon bei der Vorbemerkung los:
"Es ist zu befürchten, dass Teile der Politik und Öffentlichkeit die Dramatik der Situation nicht in ihrem vollen Ausmaß erfassen.”
@Leopoldina Zum Impfen:
- Mehr Berufsgruppen mit impfen lassen
- Impfzentren wieder auf (mit langen Öffnungszeiten)
- mehr “aufsuchende Impfangebote”
- Impfpflicht für Ärzte, Pfleger, etc
- Vorbereitung einer allgemeinen Impfpflicht
Read 8 tweets
26 Nov
“The overall level of risk for the EU/EEA associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron is assessed as HIGH to VERY HIGH”, says new @ECDC_EU
risk assessment of #Omicron.

It’s here:
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
@ECDC_EU "There is considerable uncertainty related to the transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, risk for reinfections and other properties of the Omicron variant...
@ECDC_EU "However, given its immune escape potential and potentially increased transmissibility advantage compared to Delta, we assess the probability of further introduction and community spread in the EU/EEA as HIGH..
Read 6 tweets
26 Nov
This pandemic has been all about communicating uncertainty and it doesn’t get more uncertain than early data on new variants.
So a few things to keep in mind the next few days and weeks as the picture around B.1.1.529 becomes clearer and why it’s right to be concerned
Most importantly: We will learn a lot in the coming days but getting good answers takes time, science takes time.
For instance, researchers in SA are growing the virus now for experiments but that can take a week or two (and different variants differ in how well they grow)
Interpreting real world data is difficult. An increase in one variant in one place can have a lot of reasons and they don’t all have to do with the variant. A superspreading event - or a series of them - can also lead to a rapid increase for instance
Read 16 tweets
24 Nov
Our new @pandemiapodcast episode is out and it’s a bit of a thriller ranging from bird flu fears to burner phones.

Episode in German is here and long thread (sorry, not sorry) in English to come:
viertausendhertz.de/pan32/
The episode is really a tale of two viruses, a story of what @JeremyFarrar told me were “the two times I've really been frightened in my professional life”.

The first moment is on the eve of Vietnamese New Year, Têt, in January 2004 in Ho-Chi-Minh City.
That night Farrar (who had been working in Vietnam since 1995) and his colleague Professor Hien were called to see a young girl who had been admitted to the hospital with a severe but unusual pneumonia.
The fear on everyone’s mind: Could SARS have returned?
Read 22 tweets
24 Nov
Was immer noch viel zu wenig Leute (auch Ärzte) wissen:

Wir haben hier in Deutschland Antikörper-Medikamente verfügbar, die vielen #Covid19-Patienten bei früher Gabe das Leben retten könnten.

Kurzer Thread mit ein paar Basics, bitte RT
Was?

Antikörper sind winzige Y-förmige Moleküle, die von Immunzellen im Blut hergestellt werden und Viren erkennen, blockieren und für die Zerstörung markieren können.
Die Impfung soll den Körper zur Bildung eigener Antikörper anregen (aktive Immunisierung). Bei Antikörper-Medikamenten werden künstlich hergestellte Antikörper gegen das Virus direkt als Infusion gegeben (passive Immunisierung).
Read 11 tweets

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