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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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27 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#EaP: The week ends with some positive developments for the region: 1) Armenia and Azerbaijan sign the third trilateral declaration under the auspices of Putin, whose main highlight is the objective of establishing a bilateral committee for demarcation;⤵️
2) The “migration crisis” on the border between Poland and Belarus has diminished in tension and proportion, while the EU finalized the legal ground for the fifth package of sanctions against Belarus on people smuggling; ⤵️
3) Moldova managed to change the budget law for ~ $75 million of debt with Gazprom, avoiding the gas cut by the latter;⤵️
4) Saakashvili was transferred to a more secure military hospital; he urged his followers to protest in favor of his release; 5) Germany, the U.S. and others have reiterated their support for Ukraine against an eventual Russian aggression. END.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
29 Nov
#Belarus: Lukashenko made a number of disturbing statements that encompass flagrant disinformation on a large scale, but I want to underline some of them: 1) He acknowledged that in the event of a military conflict on the Ukraine-Russia border, Belarus will fight on the⤵️
Russian side ; 2) Next, he instructed Defense Minister Hrenov to develop action plans to mobilize the army ensuring that this is necessary to counter threats on both the western and southern borders (NATO members and Ukraine); 3) Furthermore, Lukashenko directed at “them”⤵️
(West/Poland) the accusations of committing homicides involving migrants, whose corpses would be dumped on the territory of Belarus (continued demonization of the EU / West); 4) As Russia has done previously (via Patrushev’s voice), Lukashenko is twisting the narrative on⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
27 Nov
#Armenia_Azerbaijan_Russia: My takeaways on on the Pashinyan-Alyiev-Putin meeting and the new declaration in Moscow (November 26, 2021): 1) Both Yerevan and Baku underlined the positive role of the Russian peacekeeping mission in stabilizing the region and normalizing the⤵️
bilateral relations; 2) They are open to initiating delineation and demarcation procedures (within a special technical bilateral committee), allowing Russia to assist in that when necessary; 3) Armenia calls on Moscow to help reducing tensions on the borders with Azerbaijan⤵️
beyond Nagorno-Karabakh topic; 4) All parties are interested in unblocking interstate transportation and economic communication ties; 5) Unlike the situation on the bilateral borders, Armenia insists on solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by broadcasting the OSCE Minsk Group,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
1 Nov
#Moldova_Russia: The protocol of the extended contract with Gazprom was published today. Additionally, Moldovan Minister of Infrastructure Spânu revealed some details about the gas contract. Here is my take on the main details of the contract and the protocol (THREAD/17): ⤵️
1) Although the contract was extended for 5 years, the volumes actually reserved are only for one year (November 2021-October 2022). 2) Only the contract includes the exact price formula. Moldova's energy regulator (ANRE) will receive and approve the contract these days. ⤵️
3) Due to the commercial secret clause, it will not be made public. Nonetheless, the price formula has been released to the public by Russian sources (price formed on the basis of calculations of 70% to 30% of oil & gas spot market prices depending on the warm & cold quarters).⤵️
Read 18 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
1 Nov
#Georgia: The opposition, which accused the central authorities of falsification in the municipal elections, has the firm intention of mobilizing supporters to join the post-election protests. The ruling party will be really stressed out if the protests are massive.⤵️
To do this, the opposition must unite and initiate the protest movement from outside the capital, modeled after the 2018 Armenian “Velvet Revolution”. It is clear that the falsification of local elections could be a more effective trigger to provoke larger protests than the⤵️
arrest of Saakashvili. The chances of the protests having an impact are very slim because the population is tired and polarized. But the Georgians have shown many times that they can bounce back.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
23 Oct
#Russia_Moldova: At last, Gazprom has spilled the tea. The Kremlin/state-controlled company Gazprom has complained that the Moldovan authorities refuse to pay debts of $ 709 million ($ 433 million + the penalty fee). The Moldovan side previously communicated that Russia wants⤵️
the payment of historical debts in 3 years, which is a difficult condition to fulfill. This appears to be one of the "political conditions" for which Russia is pushing for. Nonetheless, Gazprom insists that it wants payment for the delivered product now. The company warned⤵️
that if the Moldovan authorities do not pay the debt and sign a new contract before December 1, they will stop supplying gas. Gazprom reported that it is in possession of information that the ruling party in Moldova wants to restructure the national provider MoldovaGaz (where⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
22 Oct
#EU_Moldova: During yesterday's EUCO summit, Von der Leyen referred to Moldova as a case study of how Russia is using gas as a geopolitical tool. I am still not sure that the Commission understands the complexity of the complications in the dialogue between Moldova and Russia.⤵️
I briefly explained the energy crisis in Moldova here👇⤵️
Furthermore, I would like the Commission to take a look at how dependent many EU Member States are on Russian gas. Here is the list of long-term contracts between Gazprom Export and the companies / governments of more than 15 EU member states 👇
Read 5 tweets

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