#Georgia: The opposition, which accused the central authorities of falsification in the municipal elections, has the firm intention of mobilizing supporters to join the post-election protests. The ruling party will be really stressed out if the protests are massive.⤵️
To do this, the opposition must unite and initiate the protest movement from outside the capital, modeled after the 2018 Armenian “Velvet Revolution”. It is clear that the falsification of local elections could be a more effective trigger to provoke larger protests than the⤵️
arrest of Saakashvili. The chances of the protests having an impact are very slim because the population is tired and polarized. But the Georgians have shown many times that they can bounce back.
The EU’s reaction is indeed of importance, but it it lacks a sense of urgency and conditionality. The Georgia Dream is even more likely to ignore it. 👇 bit.ly/3CtAR7X

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More from @DionisCenusa

1 Nov
#Moldova_Russia: The protocol of the extended contract with Gazprom was published today. Additionally, Moldovan Minister of Infrastructure Spânu revealed some details about the gas contract. Here is my take on the main details of the contract and the protocol (THREAD/17): ⤵️
1) Although the contract was extended for 5 years, the volumes actually reserved are only for one year (November 2021-October 2022). 2) Only the contract includes the exact price formula. Moldova's energy regulator (ANRE) will receive and approve the contract these days. ⤵️
3) Due to the commercial secret clause, it will not be made public. Nonetheless, the price formula has been released to the public by Russian sources (price formed on the basis of calculations of 70% to 30% of oil & gas spot market prices depending on the warm & cold quarters).⤵️
Read 18 tweets
23 Oct
#Russia_Moldova: At last, Gazprom has spilled the tea. The Kremlin/state-controlled company Gazprom has complained that the Moldovan authorities refuse to pay debts of $ 709 million ($ 433 million + the penalty fee). The Moldovan side previously communicated that Russia wants⤵️
the payment of historical debts in 3 years, which is a difficult condition to fulfill. This appears to be one of the "political conditions" for which Russia is pushing for. Nonetheless, Gazprom insists that it wants payment for the delivered product now. The company warned⤵️
that if the Moldovan authorities do not pay the debt and sign a new contract before December 1, they will stop supplying gas. Gazprom reported that it is in possession of information that the ruling party in Moldova wants to restructure the national provider MoldovaGaz (where⤵️
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
#EU_Moldova: During yesterday's EUCO summit, Von der Leyen referred to Moldova as a case study of how Russia is using gas as a geopolitical tool. I am still not sure that the Commission understands the complexity of the complications in the dialogue between Moldova and Russia.⤵️
I briefly explained the energy crisis in Moldova here👇⤵️
Furthermore, I would like the Commission to take a look at how dependent many EU Member States are on Russian gas. Here is the list of long-term contracts between Gazprom Export and the companies / governments of more than 15 EU member states 👇
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
#Russia: Here is a snapshot of the current gas supply contracts between Gazprom Export and the EU, Eastern Partnership and Eurasian Union states (THREAD/20):
1. EU - Austria: in 2019, total gas exports represented 16.2 bcm. The bilateral contract is until 2040.
2. Croatia: Exports are made on the basis of a long-term contract that expires in 2027. Volumes for 2019 reached 2.8 bcm.
Read 21 tweets
19 Oct
#Moldova: Some updates about the gas supply from Russia. The PM Gavrilita spelt out some details about the situation on the domestic energy market:
1) Moldova received some volumes of gas from Romania via the Iasi-Ungheni pipeline, finalized last year. The quantity of the volumes is not divulged. They were necessary to balance the pressure in the gas pipeline system.
2) Answering questions, the PM said that the government started the negotiations in September. She reported that the Ministry of Infrastructure Spinu is in Warsaw to discuss with the government and the Polish energy companies about the opportunities to import gas.
Read 10 tweets
18 Oct
#Moldova_Russia: The situation around the gas supply did not improve, while the temperature is dropping. As the energy crisis looms, the Moldovan authorities and some segments of the public accuse Russia of triggering the crisis (THREAD):
1) Infrastructure Minister Spanu traveled to Poland on a two-day working trip to discuss gas supply opportunities, namely the purchase of liquefied gas from the LNG terminal in the Baltic Sea (5 bcm). Poland itself will stop buying Russian gas after 2022, investing in⤵️
expanding its LNG capacity to 8 bcm by 2023. 2) On the other hand, there is no signal from Russia. There are strong local views that Moscow is purposefully causing the energy crisis. According to them, after showing initial openness for the extension of the old contract, Russia⤵️
Read 11 tweets

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