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27 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
BREAKING: scientists confirm rapidly vanishing sea ice due to abrupt climate change means catastrophic impacts beyond the Arctic itself

1/
 carbonbrief.org/melting-arctic…
Arctic teleconnection: “Diminishing sea ice favours hotter, drier conditions in western states that set the stage for fierce wildfires.."

🔥 the impact of melting sea ice on US wildfires is comparable to that of other, better known drivers

2/
 carbonbrief.org/melting-arctic…
Previously unconvinced scientists acknowledge the new research

"the actual scientific evidence..until fairly recently, has been pretty weak. This new study does add an important empirical data point into the ‘a relationship probably does exist’ column"

3/carbonbrief.org/melting-arctic…
Prof James Screen, associate professor in climate science, University of Exeter: study “goes an important extra step further” in “drawing a link to fire-favourable weather”

4/
carbonbrief.org/melting-arctic…
See thread:

5/

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
27 Nov
Did you know?

1. scientists say processes like permafrost thaw can trigger 3°C-5°C of warming to confirm one of Earth's worst ever mass extinctions even if coal use doesn’t rise

2. they urge epic 2020s action on gas & oil warning of impacts by 2037-2051 we just can't adapt to🧵
1. State-corporate media have been sidelining scientists warnings of impacts we can't adapt to at catastrophic 2°C of warming for years, even decades.

'There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them'theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wr…
2a. 'Many scientists argue that even if coal use doesn’t rise in a catastrophic way, 5°C of warming could occur by other means..'

nature.com/articles/d4158…

2b. 5°C at present rates of increase (even without other non-climate factors) means dire extinction.
nature.com/articles/s4146…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
26 Nov
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/
theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
24 Nov
At 420 ppm of CO2 with emissions rising to extreme record levels and no solid plans to deal with aerosols or destructive industrial agriculture the question now is can the public see through state-corporate media distortions to force fair emergency action which limits the doom?🧵
1. We're still heading for 2C-3C by the 2050s.

We're somewhere around the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (IPCC climate report AR6 from 2021).

See thread.

Image
2. “It is well understood that [aerosols’] presence is masking a substantial amount of greenhouse gas warming,”

This puts our increasingly interdependent global civilization in a tough bind.'

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
22 Nov
'Global warming could reach as high as 3.8°C..or as low as 1.7°C when..uncertainties are taken into account

"we are quite uncertain about where current policies and NDCs take us, contrary to a lot of the media and communication during COP26"

Or >4C?

🧵1/yahoo.com/now/study-cast…
Climate scientists are still worried about 4°C

Nov 2021: A 4.0°C rise could see nearly half of the world’s population living in areas potentially affected by extreme heat stress – a potentially fatal combination of heat and humidity.

🧵2/
metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press…
We are somewhere around the IPCC's 'intermediate' or 'high' emissions scenarios (or even 'very high'?) which suggests 4C-5C or more by 2100 can't be ruled out.

Only a postgrowth economy could keep us below 1.6C by 2050.

🧵3/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
21 Nov
Did you know?

66% of primates face extinction

50% of trees & amphibians face extinction

40% of plants & invertebrate pollinators face extinction

33% of insects & marine mammals face extinction

20% of reptiles face extinction

This is about doom limitation.
🧵 1. We must force revolutionary changes to stop the ultra-destructive global growth economy and forge a new system.

See thread:

2. Media ignore this:

'5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts'

1.5-2C isn't safe.nature.com/articles/s4146…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
20 Nov
BREAKING: the percentage of primate species threatened with extinction has risen from 60% in 2017 (75% in decline) to 66% in 2021 (85% in decline) 🧵
🧵1. Paul A. Garber and Alejandro Estrada, primate conservation researchers and co-authors on a 2017 article on primate extinction.

'Much has changed over the past 4 to 5 years, and none of the changes benefit primate population persistence.' inverse.com/science/primat…
🧵2. 'Deforestation of tropical rainforest continues, as large agribusiness companies and governments continue to convert natural habitats to monocultures and fragmented and polluted landscapes for products that are consumed by people in a smaller number of rich nations.'
Read 7 tweets

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