At 420 ppm of CO2 with emissions rising to extreme record levels and no solid plans to deal with aerosols or destructive industrial agriculture the question now is can the public see through state-corporate media distortions to force fair emergency action which limits the doom?🧵
1. We're still heading for 2C-3C by the 2050s.

We're somewhere around the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (IPCC climate report AR6 from 2021).

See thread.

Image
2. “It is well understood that [aerosols’] presence is masking a substantial amount of greenhouse gas warming,”

This puts our increasingly interdependent global civilization in a tough bind.'

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
3. Food systems are responsible for a third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions

Even if the world stopped burning fossil fuels immediately, global food system emissions could still push global temperatures over the 1.5C warming threshold

Tweaking? 🤔theconversation.com/want-to-act-on…
4. Progress?! We must support independent media to smash myths spread by corporate journalists/editors for the system changes necessary for any hope of a chance of decent survival.

We're still on track for 2C by the 2040s followed by 3C-5C sooner or later.vox.com/the-weeds/2021…

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More from @ClimateBen

26 Nov
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/

theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
22 Nov
'Global warming could reach as high as 3.8°C..or as low as 1.7°C when..uncertainties are taken into account

"we are quite uncertain about where current policies and NDCs take us, contrary to a lot of the media and communication during COP26"

Or >4C?

🧵1/yahoo.com/now/study-cast…
Climate scientists are still worried about 4°C

Nov 2021: A 4.0°C rise could see nearly half of the world’s population living in areas potentially affected by extreme heat stress – a potentially fatal combination of heat and humidity.

🧵2/
metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press…
We are somewhere around the IPCC's 'intermediate' or 'high' emissions scenarios (or even 'very high'?) which suggests 4C-5C or more by 2100 can't be ruled out.

Only a postgrowth economy could keep us below 1.6C by 2050.

🧵3/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
Read 6 tweets
21 Nov
Did you know?

66% of primates face extinction

50% of trees & amphibians face extinction

40% of plants & invertebrate pollinators face extinction

33% of insects & marine mammals face extinction

20% of reptiles face extinction

This is about doom limitation.
🧵 1. We must force revolutionary changes to stop the ultra-destructive global growth economy and forge a new system.

See thread:

2. Media ignore this:

'5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts'

1.5-2C isn't safe.nature.com/articles/s4146…
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
BREAKING: the percentage of primate species threatened with extinction has risen from 60% in 2017 (75% in decline) to 66% in 2021 (85% in decline) 🧵
🧵1. Paul A. Garber and Alejandro Estrada, primate conservation researchers and co-authors on a 2017 article on primate extinction.

'Much has changed over the past 4 to 5 years, and none of the changes benefit primate population persistence.' inverse.com/science/primat…
🧵2. 'Deforestation of tropical rainforest continues, as large agribusiness companies and governments continue to convert natural habitats to monocultures and fragmented and polluted landscapes for products that are consumed by people in a smaller number of rich nations.'
Read 7 tweets
16 Nov
Might 2°C calamity by around 2036-2045 or soon after still be avoided with the correct actions?

We should all be talking about this, but journalists and editors remain silent (particularly on a much feared aerosol 'termination shock') so people generally have no idea.

Thread:
And see this brief thread (replying to another thread):

Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
BREAKING: as both temperatures & CO2 emissions soar towards record levels by 2023 and industrial trawling and mining wreck the sea bed, climate scientists fear the ocean will soon be unable to provide Earth's largest long-term carbon store
🧵1. Abrupt climate change has 'a "worrying" effect' on the ocean's ability to lock away carbon. If global temperatures increase to levels predicted, the ocean 'will not be able to provide what is currently Earth's largest long-term carbon store'. bbc.com/news/science-e…
🧵2. We're heading for 1.6°C-2°C by the 2030s as corporations d governments openly plan together to increase fossil fuel production in the 2020s. We can't survive the ocean destruction being driven by economic growth. A postgrowth economy is the only way.cnbc.com/2021/07/20/co2…
Read 7 tweets

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