South Africa reports people in their 20s and 30s with moderate to severe disease: in this age group about 25% are vaccinated: the majority of the vaccinated are therefore the ones with severe disease and in ICU: exactly what we'd expect with a vaccine resistant variant. 
65%—6/10 in hospital unvaccinated in this age group: 25%—1/4 vaccination in this age group.
35% in hospital are vaxxed: 1/2.
Assuming half of that 35% are fully vaxxed:
17% = 1 in 5
Half vaxxed = 1 in 5
Fully vaccinated make up 1 in 5 patients.
35% in hospital are vaxxed: 1/2.
Assuming half of that 35% are fully vaxxed:
17% = 1 in 5
Half vaxxed = 1 in 5
Fully vaccinated make up 1 in 5 patients.
This is vs baseline of 1 in 4, so we would expect, if there was reduction that vaccinated would make up a smaller proportion: not one = to baseline.
The 25% in this age group number comes from the figure given out during the press conference by SA officials on Thursday:
The 25% in this age group number comes from the figure given out during the press conference by SA officials on Thursday:
If I am incorrect with the figures: please not this was a rough calculation of the top of my head, and presented as such. However, given the clear immune escape properties of this virus, we should assume that such a situation is not unlikely.
Initial report on Omicron before it was named: information presented here was correct at the time of publication & to my knowledge nothing has changed since.
https://twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1463908286852440077
If vaccination in this age group is even lower than 25% and they account for 35% hospitalised and in ICU, then there's no argument to be had. Clearly they would account for a higher proportion of those hospitalised.
Levels of vaccination in 18-35 year olds South Africa: 26% as of Thursday 25 November 2021 according to their Health Minister:
https://twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1465077624644980739
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