Reinfection: and why Omicron is so dangerous: here we have a good explanation from Yale University where they estimate reinfection to be around 5%: 1/20 people will be reinfected after just 3 months (I'm not sure about the 3 month window either, but, for now)
Yale researchers explain the basic virology that our Chief Medical Officer, health minister, and Prime Minister apparent;y don't understand: Changes in spike protein lead to reinfection: remember Omicron has 30 CHANGES IN SPIKE.
The same applies to many viruses we get reinfected by every year—with Covid there is this crazy assumption that each reinfection will be less severe: especially if you're vaccinated: why? where does this crazy idea come from?
So reinfections are less severe? and vaccines make them less severe? based on what? This study from Brazil showed increased severity of disease in HCWs:
More severe disease in the reinfected:
One of them died...so vaccines will protect you then from severe disease and death if you get infected????
PHE data on breakthrough infections: note how many vaccinated die and have severe disease: it could be argued they are less likely to get infected, but do you see a massive reduction in outcomes here?
Covid is a virus like many that we do not develop long term immunity to: assumptions about having less severe disease are incorrect when reinfected: the same is true about vaccination if you get infected. Omicron has significant changes to evade both viral infection & vaccine.
There is no evidence to believe that you will have a less severe disease due to previous infection, mixed with vaccination as Chris Whitty claimed in Omicron: none: the opposite is likely to be true due to prior damage from infection.
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1/Omicron hospitalisations are between 5%-30% according to the data we currently have. The majority of those hospitalised are young people, and deaths may be 8x higher this variant that has clear vaccine evading properties.
2/ 2,600 infections were reported on 27 Nov in one day. The virus is doubling rapidly, so we can assume around 1,300 infections every day for the week previous to this one: around 9,100 in that week.
3/ South African Gov hospitalisation data from the region of Gauteng (centre of the outbreak) says that there 580 were admitted last week: this chart shows the exponential rise of admissions as the double every week. A tripling in 3 weeks.
Confirmation that Omicron is more severe in younger people: Though there's no reason t assume the vaccines will help much due to the clear properties of this virus to evade immunity.
This is exactly what we'd expect to see with a vaccine evading variant. There are 30 changes in spike many of which are already known to evade prior immunity, there are many changes in receptor binding domain and changes as well relating other parts of the immune system.
1/What the actual F*ck is going on with Omicron and Holland?
Yesterday we had reports of 61—11%—1 in 9—passengers out of 600 testing positive from just one flight from South Africa, today we hear it's 13?
I could understand if the remaining 48 do not have Omicron: but then how can the planes have 11% passengers infected, and only 13 of those 61 be Omicron?
3/The assumption, given how rapidly this variant spreads, is surely that the majority would be Omicron and that cases of this magnitude would almost certainly be the super variant.
South Africa reports people in their 20s and 30s with moderate to severe disease: in this age group about 25% are vaccinated: the majority of the vaccinated are therefore the ones with severe disease and in ICU: exactly what we'd expect with a vaccine resistant variant.
65%—6/10 in hospital unvaccinated in this age group: 25%—1/4 vaccination in this age group.
35% in hospital are vaxxed: 1/2.
Assuming half of that 35% are fully vaxxed:
17% = 1 in 5
Half vaxxed = 1 in 5
Fully vaccinated make up 1 in 5 patients.
This is vs baseline of 1 in 4, so we would expect, if there was reduction that vaccinated would make up a smaller proportion: not one = to baseline.
The 25% in this age group number comes from the figure given out during the press conference by SA officials on Thursday:
'Nov 28 (Reuters) - Most Gulf stock markets fell sharply in early trade on Sunday, with the Saudi index suffering its biggest single-day fall in nearly two years as fears of a potentially vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant rattled investors.'
Oil markets are taking a big hit
"Among other losers, budget airline Air Arabia (AIRA.DU) plunged 7.1%."
They are pulling money out of oil and therefore travel based parts of the economy, expecting lockdowns, and facing an uncertain future:
The markets know what;s up: they don't have time for Gov lies about Covid and downplaying:
"The latest panedmic developments also sent oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, plunging by $10 a barrel on Friday for their largest one-day drop since April 2020.
Chris Whitty reciting GDB dogma today about prior infection leading to high degree of immunity, mixed with vaccination: apparently reinfection leads to less severe disease: this is wrong and a lie. This is shockingly wrong.
I wrote this on Thursday: before Omicron was named: nothing has changed since then, other than ad admission that the UK has confirmed cases: