1/Omicron hospitalisations are between 5%-30% according to the data we currently have. The majority of those hospitalised are young people, and deaths may be 8x higher this variant that has clear vaccine evading properties.
2/ 2,600 infections were reported on 27 Nov in one day. The virus is doubling rapidly, so we can assume around 1,300 infections every day for the week previous to this one: around 9,100 in that week.
3/ South African Gov hospitalisation data from the region of Gauteng (centre of the outbreak) says that there 580 were admitted last week: this chart shows the exponential rise of admissions as the double every week. A tripling in 3 weeks.
4/ This data from the Gov website for the region says that 406 are currently admitted: so we can estimate hospitalisation rate based on cases the previous weeks would be about 5%: 1 in 20.
5/ The same data set also says that there 736 currently admitted in that region: I don't know which one is correct, so I'm just going to use this as well to estimate: which would give us a hospitalisation rate of 10.5%–1 in 9.
6/However, the cases are still mostly confined to the younger age groups, who would typically be less likely to get severe disease.
7/ If the older age groups are also more severely affected as the young ones are the sky is the limit: assuming somebody in their 50s is 3x more likely to get severe disease: we are now into the 30% and potentially above range.
8/Of those in hospital with severe disease requiring ventilation, ICU, oxygen etc there are 191 in total: 25%: 1 in 4 requiring high-level support.

This is extremely high.
9/The ratios I've presented are rough calculations based on data available in a clearly rapidly changing situation: however, alarm bells should be ringing right now.
10/ Between 5%-30% hospitalisation, 35% of those hospitalised in the younger age group are vaccinated, 25% of those hospitalised are receiving life-saving treatment: and the virus show clear vaccine immunity evading properties:
Hospitalisations: most likely in the youngest age groups in South Africa: yet more evidence that this is new virus and much more severe for young people than any other variant:
Thread written before the variant was named Omicron: information presented here correct to date and at time of publication:
Global finance has seen the writing on the wall: worst day of the year on Friday for FTSE 100: travel and oil industry are big losers: investors know what's coming:
The schools should be closed immediately until we can gage what is happening with this virus and get a handle on it. The MSM and Gov are currently spinning this virus to be less mild and a good thing: nothing could be further from reality.

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More from @EnemyInAState

29 Nov
1/Manchester: Due to Massive 'Unprecedented' Outbreak Chaos in School Chefs & Supply Chain Leads to Kids Missing out on hot meals & Fed Just Bread & Fruit
2/Trafford council reports that due to a 'significant rise' in Covid cases they have now had to move to 'a reduced menu' to feed children.

They say that there has been an unprecedented increase in food staff absence over the last 3 weeks.
3/As a result, the school is giving kids sandwiches and fruit....

Trafford Council also reports that they are unable to get supplies of food due to outbreaks among lorry drivers:
Read 9 tweets
29 Nov
Confirmation that Omicron is more severe in younger people: Though there's no reason t assume the vaccines will help much due to the clear properties of this virus to evade immunity.
Vaccination levels in this age group 26%, they account for 35% of the hospitalisations: therefore they are the majority.
This is exactly what we'd expect to see with a vaccine evading variant. There are 30 changes in spike many of which are already known to evade prior immunity, there are many changes in receptor binding domain and changes as well relating other parts of the immune system.
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov
1/What the actual F*ck is going on with Omicron and Holland?

Yesterday we had reports of 61—11%—1 in 9—passengers out of 600 testing positive from just one flight from South Africa, today we hear it's 13?
I could understand if the remaining 48 do not have Omicron: but then how can the planes have 11% passengers infected, and only 13 of those 61 be Omicron?
3/The assumption, given how rapidly this variant spreads, is surely that the majority would be Omicron and that cases of this magnitude would almost certainly be the super variant.
Read 11 tweets
28 Nov
South Africa reports people in their 20s and 30s with moderate to severe disease: in this age group about 25% are vaccinated: the majority of the vaccinated are therefore the ones with severe disease and in ICU: exactly what we'd expect with a vaccine resistant variant.
65%—6/10 in hospital unvaccinated in this age group: 25%—1/4 vaccination in this age group.
35% in hospital are vaxxed: 1/2.

Assuming half of that 35% are fully vaxxed:

17% = 1 in 5

Half vaxxed = 1 in 5

Fully vaccinated make up 1 in 5 patients.
This is vs baseline of 1 in 4, so we would expect, if there was reduction that vaccinated would make up a smaller proportion: not one = to baseline.

The 25% in this age group number comes from the figure given out during the press conference by SA officials on Thursday:
Read 7 tweets
28 Nov
'Nov 28 (Reuters) - Most Gulf stock markets fell sharply in early trade on Sunday, with the Saudi index suffering its biggest single-day fall in nearly two years as fears of a potentially vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant rattled investors.'

Oil markets are taking a big hit
"Among other losers, budget airline Air Arabia (AIRA.DU) plunged 7.1%."

They are pulling money out of oil and therefore travel based parts of the economy, expecting lockdowns, and facing an uncertain future:

reuters.com/markets/stocks…
The markets know what;s up: they don't have time for Gov lies about Covid and downplaying:

"The latest panedmic developments also sent oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, plunging by $10 a barrel on Friday for their largest one-day drop since April 2020.
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
Reinfection: and why Omicron is so dangerous: here we have a good explanation from Yale University where they estimate reinfection to be around 5%: 1/20 people will be reinfected after just 3 months (I'm not sure about the 3 month window either, but, for now) Image
Yale researchers explain the basic virology that our Chief Medical Officer, health minister, and Prime Minister apparent;y don't understand: Changes in spike protein lead to reinfection: remember Omicron has 30 CHANGES IN SPIKE. Image
The same applies to many viruses we get reinfected by every year—with Covid there is this crazy assumption that each reinfection will be less severe: especially if you're vaccinated: why? where does this crazy idea come from? Image
Read 11 tweets

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