Thread by @althecat

Remember that the timing of this USIP briefing coincides with the Ethiopian airstrikes in Mekelle, and fighting over Dessie and Kombulcha. Three days later the UNSC finally managed to agree on a press statement about the conflict >>> un.org/press/en/2021/….

And another 3 days later on November 8th there was another UNSC meeting on "peace and security in Africa", with a briefing from AU High Representative for the HoA former Nigerian President @OluObasanjo1 who had recently spoken to both the TPLF and the GoE. un.org/press/en/2021/…

@OluObasanjo1 Under questioning from USIP President Lise Grande, Feltman outlines what appears to be a more conciliatory approach to the U.S. He talks about the U.S. playing a low key role in the peace efforts and encouraging the AU to take the lead.

@OluObasanjo1 As expected hot button issues for U.S. stakeholders such as Ethiopian arms purchases and the role of Eritrea are also addressed by Feltman, but not in a manner which further inflames the subjects. And it is likely this is the purpose of this discourse....

@OluObasanjo1 ... namely an effort at deescalating the rhetoric, not just between the warring parties but domestically in the U.S. in the media and among Congressional Representatives and Senators who are being drawn increasingly into the debate.

At the close Feltman makes a remark that is telling.

"The PM thinks that the TPLF wants to replace him. The TPLF thinks that the PM wants to exterminate them. I do not think either of these are true."

As I am sure many will be, I too am skeptical about the first leg of this, as the TPLF have made it very clear that this is their intent.

But for now lets continue to role with the theatre of this. This briefing is in my contention the opening gambit in a U.S. Policy pivot.

Six days later @USAmbUN Linda Thomas Greenfield @LindaT_G spoke at the UNSC meeting. Her fairly brief comments are worth reading They are significantly more nuanced than earlier, at times aggressive & offensive remarks, in this forum. >> usun.usmission.gov/remarks-by-amb…

@USAmbUN @LindaT_G "& we condemn the TPLF’s violence. We condemn the TPLF’s expansion of war outside of Tigray. The TPLF must withdraw from Afar and Amhara. And we call on the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army to immediately stop the current advance toward Addis." - @LindaT_G at UNSC Nov. 8, 2021.

Taken together, the USIP briefing [Official Hashtag #USPolicyEthipia] and the significantly stronger and different tone at the UNSC from @USAmbUN during COP26 signal- in my view - the beginning of a pivot in U.S. Policy on Ethiopia.

There are several reasons for this, but top of my list is the October 25th coup in Sudan.

To paraphrase GBS: To lose one democracy (Ethiopia) is unfortunate, to lose two (Sudan & Ethiopia) is careless.

The U.S. was very clearly shocked to see the Sudan coup, flying in the face of U.S. diplomacy.

For this to happen during #COP26, placed a major U.S. policy debacle in the global spotlight in an embarrassing manner, one that threatened the outcome of the crucial climate talks.

Two days after his briefing Envoy Feltman returned to Addis Ababa. state.gov/visit-of-speci…

While he was there the situation continued to deteriorate. Ethiopia had declared its State of Emergency on November 2nd, and in the days that followed the TPLF extended their offensive in Wollo. Ethiopia arrested and detained UN officials and drivers, and mass rallies were held.

As previously mentioned the UNSC issued a statement on Nov 5th and held a meeting on November 8th. Feltman returned on or about November 9th and was only back briefly before returning to Ethiopia on Nov. 18th. state.gov/u-s-special-en…

In the second half of Feltman's break from Africa, @SecBlinken was in the region, beginning Nov. 15th and travelling to Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal returning on the 20th. state.gov/secretary-blin…

The centerpiece of U.S. Secretary of State @SecBlinken's visit to Africa was an address delivered on November 19th in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation. Link >> state.gov/the-united-sta… (with video).

Blinken's speech addressed many of the grievances of the developing world, including in relation to the slowness of the vaccination effort and issues around development finance and climate change.

Arguably the US-China agreement on climate cooperation announced out of the blue on Wednesday 10th November saved COP26. John Kerry certainly played a massive role in getting the final agreement over the line on Saturday 13th November.

The extent to which Africa was the group which lost the most when it came to agreeing to the final text at the close was not widely reported. India & China's revision to the language on coal got huge attention, but a European last minute change to "loss and damage" text did not.

Meanwhile in the midst of the Ethiopia crisis and a growing pan-African #NoMore movement, the US position in Africa broadly has been under significant attack. Are @SecBlinken's specific references to @vanessa_vash's call at #COP26 for the West to "Prove" her wrong - a response?

Blinken's Speech in Abuja was on Friday 19th November. Jeffrey Feltman's briefing to media - the second briefing referred to this the thread title - was on Tuesday 23rd November.

And by now US Foreign Policy has had a strong focus on Ethiopia/Africa for more than a month.

This morning I posted a brief thread on Feltman's November 23rd briefing, with initial thoughts which can be found below.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1464869567268855808?s=20

And to understand what all this is about you really need to listen to Feltman speak in the audio of the conference call >> c-span.org/video/?516313-…

What struck me as most important about this latest U.S. briefing is the change in tone in Envoy Feltman's form of expression.

After such a long period of continual betrayal by the U.S. it is near impossible for any non TPLF supporting Ethiopian to put any faith at all in any U.S. speaker with respect to the conflict with the TPLF.

And the recent "Princeton Call" by former ambassadors, which followed this briefing has further undermined any confidence in the existence of goodwill on the U.S. side.

And this is why I have gone so deeply into this.

To be crystal clear I do not think the U.S. has convinced the TPLF to lay down their arms, nor that they are about to do so, I do not know if they are able to do so.

But I do think that the U.S. "may" now be actively and sincerely working towards this end.

And if this is true, then it is a significant positive development. The reason that the U.S. is doing this is as ever self-interested, as is the way in foreign relations, but Feltman has over this past month repeatedly laid out the new case for Ethiopia to prevail.

Namely: "The overriding interest of the U.S. in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa is an interest in stability." He said this clearly on November 2nd and (I think) repeats it in his most recent briefing.

The coup in Sudan made this interest even more urgent.

In the Nov. 2nd briefing Feltman also makes this explicit. A stable Ethiopia will help stabilise Sudan, and together these two nations constitute nearly 170 million people - close to half the population of the United States.

The reason I wanted to research all the other activity that has taken place during this period - to connect the dots - is because policy change in a monolith like the U.S. leaves a big trail.

Whether the U.S. will admit this is a policy change is another thing altogether mind.

For now we should all wait and see what happens next. Yesterday it was quiet on the Eastern Front in Ethiopia. And today, from what I can see, things were also fairly quiet.

The TPLF have suffered several significant military defeats over the past week, including the possible deaths of both Debretsion and Tsadkan. Their offensive on the Afar Front failed yet again, as I understand it with very high loss of life.

If they have now also - finally - lost the support of the most important and powerful sponsor, then the conditions which could lead them to choose to pursue mediation whilst commencing a withdrawal are now present.

Hopes & Prayers.

/ENDS

@Threadreaderapp unroll