@lightcrypto is one of the legends, we would not have made it in 2018/2019 if not for his sagacity
We were born in the darkness, you are summer children
Bearish whales still own 10x more coins than you, they save the entire mkt during bear
He is also the only guy (maybe also @GiganticRebirth ) sounding any kind of alarm over tremendous froth in certain sectors
Spot longs w money you can afford to lose are fine; do not put yourself in a position to get wiped out as things continue, make sure you stay in your seat
90% of my top signal list that I wrote down in q1 2019 while it was still fresh in my memory are now hit
No interest in calling tops for clout or having you sell bottoms for psyops, enough wealth for many lifetimes already
Make sure you own things you believe in and wagmi
This doesnt mean you should go out there and dump your whole portfolio to usd. This also doesn't mean you should go 10x long bc "muh countertrade." This is a great time to slow things down and try to dig in deeper instead of asking "what's next."
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I'll always be grateful to the Ethereum ecosystem for the opportunities its granted us since we started. I was getting triggered by a small subset of ppl, and need to respect that they do not represent the larger community.
Do want to remind ppl that in 2019 the pt of DeFi was to bank the unbanked. And that in 2016 many Ethereans criticized Bitcoin for $0.05 fees. Fast fwd to now and huge amts of users are shut out, their funds stuck onchain, etc. Monthly user count similar to 2017.
For me the biggest counterpoint to "everything bubble" is we are in secular K-shape recovery. What they don't teach in school is DCF analysis has some assumptions about the structure of businesses themselves; that they grow in initial phase and then stop at a terminal growth rate
If you think about it, DCF analysis will force you into buying every value trap bc its cash flows look cheap. Conversely it forces you to miss every good network effect asset, bc its growth rate eclipses all reasonable estimates by reasonable analysts, including bulls
We are entering the golden era of investing in network effects, of which sound money / smart contract protocols + applications / mimetic revolutions (NFT, metaverse, memes) are the most clear opportunities
Introducing Tranchess tranchess.com today, a Tokenized Asset Management & Derivatives Trading protocol in which 3ac is one of the seed investors, along w/ @binance, @TheSpartanGroup@LongHashVC
The Tranchess team are intellectual powerhouses w/ strong tech+finance backgrounds, and located across several continents. @DcKingT Danny Chong, co-founder resides in Singapore currently
Rather than farming in a dual-asset (BTCB-USDC) pool, users can choose to stake one or both of the single-asset pools - avoiding impermanent loss. If you are holding BTC, create the Queen token. If you are holding USDC, create the Bishop token
This so-called "reorg attack" is basic strategy and has been known for yrs
It's a defense, a way to "mark as theft," there's no "rollback," no coordination w/ miners required
This impacts no other transactions that are happening meantime, causes no hf
Hacker could re-bribe ofc, leading to bidding war. So you could say post-block rewards, most of hacked value will accrue to miners (vis a vis that bidding war)
We will likely see ppl build out tools to estimate a safe # of confirms required based on the BTC amt of the TX
I do think it's an exercise in using precise language. It came across to many as "brb, reorg-ing BTC atm" which triggered many ppl's sense of disgust and was a call to arms to defend immutability. Yet there's plenty of Bitcoiners who understand that this is just how PoW works
Since 1/1/2013, only two TA strategies (MACD and Exponential MA) have outperformed Buy & Hold.
Since 1/1/2014, various MA strategies have outperformed. 2015 start date looks similar.
The worst strats since 2013 are KBand, RSI, CCI, BB, Stoch. Down since BTC was $13.30!
Bad TA is not just marginally bad--it can mean being net down trading an asset that has gone 1,500x and is still 250x from start date.
Look how bad RSI style strategies are for crypto relative to people's insistence on using them.
For ETH since Feb 2018, even though Buy&Hold is the absolute worst strategy, KBand/BB/RSI are pretty close behind.
Trend-following sounds easy but is psychologically contrarian.