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Jay Markel

29 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read

Participated in an industry call this Am. It is obvious now that all municipalities will need to outsource waste collection to the big guys $GFL. Labor inflation hurting. Taxpayers will notice that municipalities operating own fleet are hemorrhaging cash. More wins coming $GFL.

In the US. ~20% of the industry is still Municipal. Should go to nearly 0% over time. Opportunity for solid waste winners with #scale

US + Canada is a $15 billion opportunity for scaled waste companies to replace municipal fleets. I expect $GFL to win more deals in the North East. $WCN to win the West. These deals are very high margin.

New York is also restructuring its waste system in 2022. This is low margin but good for $WM. I expect $WCN and $GFL to benefit the most.

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Jay Markel

@JayMarkel

7 Sep

A couple of people have asked me for my updated thoughts on $GFL $GFL.TO:

It's cheap AGAIN.

Looking out to 2022-2023 when synergies are fully extracted, I estimate GFL can generate in the neighborhood of ~$800m of FCF

800m is on the current base of business... now we have to give credit to organic:

4.5% topline at 35 incremental margin yields an additional 100m of FCF

= $900m of FCF

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Jay Markel

@JayMarkel

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