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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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29 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Bad news on omicron transmission:
What makes the report even worse:

1) The first cardiologist was infected at a conference in the UK returning last thursday.
2) The cardiologist did 7 operations and participated in two conferences in Israel before recognizing symptoms.

How many cardiologists got infected in UK
And where are bookies giving odds Omicron bypasses vaccine immunity?
And apparent community transmission in Germany

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Nov
First in North America

Canada reports two cases of the Omicron variant of concern in Ontario

outbreaknewstoday.com/canada-reports…
First in all of the Americas
Point of origin is reported to be Nigeria. Unless the infections occurred in transit, this is important. Nigeria is not on the list of countries most countries have stopped travel from.

msn.com/en-us/health/m…
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Nov
Global Response to Omicron Variant: Better but needs to be stronger.

@TheWHN worldhealthnetwork.global/omicron

1/
Nov 27, 2021: In response to the new variant outbreak growing in the southern part of the African continent, Europe as a unit, the US and many other countries, have limited travel from South Africa and adjacent countries.

2/
The World Health Network thanks South Africa for sounding the alarm and congratulates countries for responding rapidly, much faster and more decisively than with the original spread of the Coronavirus and the successive variants.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Nov
Mystery: Why so high infection rate of passengers arriving in Amsterdam? 61/600 = ~10%

Especially since tested negative prior to departure.

Maybe families/groups pre-infected.
Maybe groups on prior connecting flights infected on the way.
Or, Maybe Omicron infects fast

1/
Attached is a comparison of Delta (orange) with prior variants (green) showing Delta has much more rapid onset of positive PCR test: about 10% of infections in two days.

If Omicron is even faster, perhaps waiting room or on same flight infections are responsible.

2/
It has been clarified that tests were not required before the flight. This makes it possible that there were a higher number of people who were infected before the flight. Still, the percentage is much higher than would be expected even in this case.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
26 Nov
International passenger traffic from Johannesburg O.R. Tambu airport: 188,530

If the proportion of infected individuals is like the recent report from Netherlands:

Almost 6,000 infected travelers in the last week.

Number of airplanes: 3,246 in October, or about 733 per week.
Airports with direct flights from Johannesburg

2/
List of largest airport destinations

3/
 flightsfrom.com/JNB/destinatio…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
26 Nov
Japanese government: Japanese nationals traveling from Eswatini Zimbabwe Namibia Botswana South Africa Lesotho must quarantine at gov accommodations for 10 days and take COVID tests on 3rd, 6th, 10th days. Japan has not yet opened up to foreign nationals

apnews.com/article/corona…
“The last thing we need is to bring in a new variant that will cause even more problems,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn said. The member nations of the EU have experienced a massive spike in cases recently.

2/
"EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said flights will have to “be suspended until we have a clear understanding about the danger posed by this new variant, and travelers returning from this region should respect strict quarantine rules.”

Note: Great!

3/
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
26 Nov
Very rough estimate of Nu variant mortality is 8X original variant based upon the current rough estimate of transmissibility, assuming they track each other.

Corrections welcome.

(Figure type labeled Nu)
Error range (estimated in this way) is 3X-12X
Transmission rate depends significantly on the density of viral particles in airborne particles, which depends on the rate of generation of the virus. The severity of the disease also depends on the replication rate of the virus. Previous variants are consistent with this.
Read 6 tweets

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