In today's newsletter, I wrote about something that's bothered me for a long time -- we don't have a big, monthly survey that asks workers and the non-employed about the job market. It's a great time to fix this.
We have all these questions about the labor market, and various vague theories for why people aren't taking up job openings faster.
And yet instead of asking the public about this, we ask the public whether now is a good time to buy a vacuum cleaner or a dishwasher.
Meanwhile, we have these business surveys, which can be interesting and useful. But the respondents have been complaining about tight labor markets and labor shortages for almost a decade now, which shows that we need to take these with a grain of salt.
Anyway, here is our episode with Thomas Lubik of the Richmond Fed on the unusually high number of job openings, and what that tells us. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why…
Yiiikes, there it is folks, new low in the number of people who say the plan to buy a vacuum cleaner in the next 6 months.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
@markets 1/ "The internet is at a fork in the road: Do we want a future on Mark Zuckerberg's servers, or do we want to build on top of networks with data we own and identities that we control? Because that is precisely what's at stake here."
@markets 2/ "Imagine never having to come up with a username or password ever again. Your crypto wallet *is* your sign-in."
Just from the perspective of a crypto fund manager, it seems really dangerous to bet too heavily on the large caps. For a long term investor, blue chips might make a lot sense, but in any given year within a bull market it seems like a sure way to underperform and not attract AUM
2021. Great for year for crypto. Anyone with a heavy ETH bet did fine. But also got crushed by funds betting on higher beta plays, alt L-1s. Etc. Probably similar dynamics with Bitcoin in 2017
To some extent this might be true for stocks. But I’m not sure if the dynamics are extreme. For basically any year in the last decade, an all FANG+ approach has been a true winner. Yes always some small cos. that outperform.
@crmiller1 So the first thing is definitely this answer from Chris to @tracyalloway about ASML's competitive edge. The story is really their incredible supply chain, and being able to manage 4000 suppliers.
@crmiller1@tracyalloway Right now, ASML's most advanced EUV lithography machines are not exported to China, and for the time being (and likely the next several years) this represents a hard constraint on Beijing's efforts at building up its own domestic chip industry.
After teasing it as part of our chip series for months, @tracyalloway and I finally did an episode on $ASML, the Dutch powerhouse in advanced lithography
@tracyalloway@crmiller1 As our guest notes, $ASML has zero competition at its level of its sophistication. None. Nobody else can achieve the scale it can, with its reliability. So if you want to make the most cutting edge chips, you are an ASML customer.
@tracyalloway@crmiller1 As I wrote about on Friday, what's impossible for competitors to replicate is not its technological knowledge per se, but its supply chain mastery, dealing with at least 4000 distinct independent suppliers
2) Extreme partisan polarization on all things economy
2a) The surging quits rate affecting Republican small business owners specifically.
The big question is now whether these sentiment readings actually translate into a slower economy. It's one thing to be upset. It's another thing to pull back on investment and consumption. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway I keep going back to @hassankhan point. Politicians love to fetishize R&D and science. But for some of the most cutting edge technologies, what's unique is not the scientific breakthrough per se, but simply the ability to coordinate supply chains and manufacturing ops at scale.
This is also something that @danwwang talks a lot about, the unduplicable, tacit knowledge that can only come about from doing something and getting better at doing it over and over and over again