Agree, though this one is bipartisan.

During the Cold War the anti-communists wanted to know what the USSR was up to, and took them seriously.

Today, however, the anti-communists have an ideology of cope. They know nothing about China other than that it will magically fail.
Btw, here we are defining “bipartisan” as pro-communist and anti-communist, with Sulzberger’s inheritance very much on the pro-communist side of the aisle.
There are dozens of graphs like this which just aren’t part of people’s mental models.
You generally don’t win against a determined competitor through contemptuous self-assurance.

A longer thread on why many predictions of China’s failure are cope.

Of course there’s always the possibility of a black swan, a sudden heart attack or something, but that’s not a plan.

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More from @balajis

1 Dec
May be a conflict of interest, given that those very social scientists are held to be the weak men that cause hard times. 😁
In seriousness this is an excellent q that would benefit from mapping to historical events.

The canonical example is the fall of the Western Roman Empire to Odoacer and the barbarians.

A contemporary one *might* be Gorbachev’s capitulation followed by Russia in the 90s.
But that last example is interesting because the capitulation of that weak man (Gorbachev) led to *good* times for much of the former Warsaw Pact, though arguably not Russia itself till its recovery under Putin.
Read 7 tweets
1 Dec
Japan didn’t magically fail.

The US has occupied Japan continuously since WW2. And wrote its constitution. So, it had root control in a way it never did over China.

I’d long suspected this was used to punch Japan under the table somehow. Then I found a book on the topic… 🧵
@gladstein referred me to this interesting book called Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson.

Here’s his bit on Japan vs China:
mronline.org/2021/10/27/sup…
The book is worth reading. It’s interesting because it has the ring of truth on many issues.

For example, the construction of markets is itself not entirely a free market phenomenon. Force is often involved. There is a “beyond good and evil” aspect to it. bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoi…
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov
How do you use machine learning to control a drone without worrying it’ll crash or do something weird?

This group says that by separating out the deterministic behavior and using ML only on the stochastic component, they can give formal guarantees for safety and robustness.
They do a few other things.

They fuse learning and control theory to derive error bounds on their (learned) controllers, ensuring the drone’s trajectory remains within a specified set.

And they show a demo that the math works via a drone that skims the ground.
In addition to this continuous correction (keeping errors within a known ball in trajectory space) they do a discrete correction that forces learning to only occur subject to specific cleverly chosen invariants.

I love this kind of paper b/c the experiments show the math works.
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
Common ways to structure articles:

- logical argument (list premises, derive lemmas, show graphs, drive to conclusion)
- listicle (thematically related bullets in any order)
- story (characters, plot, conflict, novelistic suspense)

What other structures do you find helpful?
The style of a piece is often implicit. It’s the kind of thing GPT-3 infers automatically.

But it can be useful to state explicitly. For example, you don’t want to write a research paper like a mystery novel. Put the conclusion in the headline, not after 200 pages of suspense.
Here’s another one that’s useful for academic talks:

- tell them what you are going to tell them
- tell them
- then tell them what you told them

Also, put the basic material up front so everyone gets something out of it, and the advanced material towards the end.
Read 5 tweets
24 Nov
Maintaining anarcho-tyranny requires sufficient organization to sustain the tyranny.

But modern Western ideologies manifest as digital mobs and physical riots. Organized they ain’t.

So others too also see the looming possibility of American anarchy.
freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/the-witching…
American anarchy is already becoming visible on the borders of empire. Western ideologies of chaos have eroded state capacity.

Not just recently, but for decades. What was neoconservatism after all but chaos? No plan but permanent war in the Middle East.
wisdomofcrowds.live/the-coming-sto…
American anarchy, international edition. wisdomofcrowds.live/the-coming-sto…
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
Already happening. India’s most important export is the CEO. Their next most important is the globally savvy, English-speaking internet user.

Indeed, as more Indians learn English, the Anglosphere may become the Indosphere.
Just as the UK handed things off to the culturally adjacent US, the dark horse scenario is that democratic India and its diaspora need to become the global champion of liberal values, relative to China, if America descends into anarchy.
The UK relied on the US after they fell. This was a relatively friendly handoff between culturally adjacent, democratic parties.

The Indian diaspora is already fairly prominent in the West in tech and media, on left and right; and more bridges will be built as 1B+ come online.
Read 4 tweets

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