May be a conflict of interest, given that those very social scientists are held to be the weak men that cause hard times. 😁
In seriousness this is an excellent q that would benefit from mapping to historical events.

The canonical example is the fall of the Western Roman Empire to Odoacer and the barbarians.

A contemporary one *might* be Gorbachev’s capitulation followed by Russia in the 90s.
But that last example is interesting because the capitulation of that weak man (Gorbachev) led to *good* times for much of the former Warsaw Pact, though arguably not Russia itself till its recovery under Putin.
And the fall of the Western Roman Empire to hard men didn’t really lead to good times. Not right away. Arguably not for many hundreds of years, depending on how dark you think the Dark Ages really were.
All the way over in China, the Jurchen defeat of the internally divided Liao is arguably a better fit to the pattern.
worldhistory.org/Jurchen_Jin_Dy…
Oh, actually, the most obvious fit is in startup land.

Founders create great companies. Great companies make money. Money attracts mediocrities. Mediocrities create weak companies. Which are then beaten by the next generation of founders.
Another observation.

The weak men often aren’t “weak” in every dimension; they can be verbally strong. Similarly, the physically strong are often verbally weak.

Finally, the *technically* strong represent a third group — in the background last century, in the foreground today.

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More from @balajis

2 Dec
Convergence.

Like China, Woke America now churns out hagiographical portrayals of party luminaries.
If you think I’m exaggerating, watch those trailers. Then look at:

1) The Founding of a Party
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Found…

2) Amazing China
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazing_C…

3) The centennial directive
cbr.com/chinese-theate… ImageImageImage
China doesn’t make any bones about it. All must hail the ruling party.

“Chinese theaters were directed to air at least two propaganda films per week to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.” cbr.com/chinese-theate… Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Dec
Robotics enables physical hyperdeflation. Labor becomes just electricity & code. Real prices for everything should fall, including cost of living, if fiat also recedes.

As a goal, if your annual crypto dividends can pay for the electricity, you should be able to live off robots.
One way to think about the world is a tug of war between (a) the inflation created by the US federal government, where printed funds prop up politically favored sectors, and (b) the global forces of technological hyperdeflation.
We see this directly with housing. Your rent is high because the Fed diluted you down to bail out banks & prop up mortgage-backed securities. And because the government limits construction via picayune regulations.

Inflation, regulation, subsidy — all to prop up the past.
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
Japan didn’t magically fail.

The US has occupied Japan continuously since WW2. And wrote its constitution. So, it had root control in a way it never did over China.

I’d long suspected this was used to punch Japan under the table somehow. Then I found a book on the topic… 🧵
@gladstein referred me to this interesting book called Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson.

Here’s his bit on Japan vs China:
mronline.org/2021/10/27/sup…
The book is worth reading. It’s interesting because it has the ring of truth on many issues.

For example, the construction of markets is itself not entirely a free market phenomenon. Force is often involved. There is a “beyond good and evil” aspect to it. bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoi…
Read 8 tweets
30 Nov
Agree, though this one is bipartisan.

During the Cold War the anti-communists wanted to know what the USSR was up to, and took them seriously.

Today, however, the anti-communists have an ideology of cope. They know nothing about China other than that it will magically fail.
Btw, here we are defining “bipartisan” as pro-communist and anti-communist, with Sulzberger’s inheritance very much on the pro-communist side of the aisle.
There are dozens of graphs like this which just aren’t part of people’s mental models.
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov
How do you use machine learning to control a drone without worrying it’ll crash or do something weird?

This group says that by separating out the deterministic behavior and using ML only on the stochastic component, they can give formal guarantees for safety and robustness.
They do a few other things.

They fuse learning and control theory to derive error bounds on their (learned) controllers, ensuring the drone’s trajectory remains within a specified set.

And they show a demo that the math works via a drone that skims the ground.
In addition to this continuous correction (keeping errors within a known ball in trajectory space) they do a discrete correction that forces learning to only occur subject to specific cleverly chosen invariants.

I love this kind of paper b/c the experiments show the math works.
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
Common ways to structure articles:

- logical argument (list premises, derive lemmas, show graphs, drive to conclusion)
- listicle (thematically related bullets in any order)
- story (characters, plot, conflict, novelistic suspense)

What other structures do you find helpful?
The style of a piece is often implicit. It’s the kind of thing GPT-3 infers automatically.

But it can be useful to state explicitly. For example, you don’t want to write a research paper like a mystery novel. Put the conclusion in the headline, not after 200 pages of suspense.
Here’s another one that’s useful for academic talks:

- tell them what you are going to tell them
- tell them
- then tell them what you told them

Also, put the basic material up front so everyone gets something out of it, and the advanced material towards the end.
Read 5 tweets

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