The book is worth reading. It’s interesting because it has the ring of truth on many issues.
For example, the construction of markets is itself not entirely a free market phenomenon. Force is often involved. There is a “beyond good and evil” aspect to it. bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoi…
To address a few objections:
“Why would the USA do that to Japan? They are the good guys. They would only compete fair and square!”
International politics is a prison yard. And economic power leads to military power. The US preferred hikikimori Japan to kamikaze Japan.
One way of thinking about US foreign policy is that the priests and warriors work together in an emergent way, despite their obvious differences.
Warriors invade the country, or get it to knuckle under. Then NGOs rewrite their constitution and keep them in a state of dependency.
By contrast to Japan, the CCP’s number one priority for decades has been to retain root access to their country at all costs. That’s why they banned foreign social media.
If FB & Twitter deplatformed Trump, they definitely would have done it to Xi. But Weibo can’t do that.
In all of this I am making no comment about the morality.
What happens with foreign policy is that one faction doesn’t want others getting too rich and another doesn’t want others getting militarily stronger. So it gets zero sum at the limit. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
Btw, I certainly wouldn’t call myself an expert on Japan/US in the 80s, but I plan to dig in more after Hudson’s book.
In regards to how Japan could buy US debt while *also* seeing the yen rise vs USD, my current understanding is that both happened — but revaluation dominated.
In seriousness this is an excellent q that would benefit from mapping to historical events.
The canonical example is the fall of the Western Roman Empire to Odoacer and the barbarians.
A contemporary one *might* be Gorbachev’s capitulation followed by Russia in the 90s.
But that last example is interesting because the capitulation of that weak man (Gorbachev) led to *good* times for much of the former Warsaw Pact, though arguably not Russia itself till its recovery under Putin.
Btw, here we are defining “bipartisan” as pro-communist and anti-communist, with Sulzberger’s inheritance very much on the pro-communist side of the aisle.
There are dozens of graphs like this which just aren’t part of people’s mental models.
How do you use machine learning to control a drone without worrying it’ll crash or do something weird?
This group says that by separating out the deterministic behavior and using ML only on the stochastic component, they can give formal guarantees for safety and robustness.
They fuse learning and control theory to derive error bounds on their (learned) controllers, ensuring the drone’s trajectory remains within a specified set.
And they show a demo that the math works via a drone that skims the ground.
In addition to this continuous correction (keeping errors within a known ball in trajectory space) they do a discrete correction that forces learning to only occur subject to specific cleverly chosen invariants.
I love this kind of paper b/c the experiments show the math works.
- logical argument (list premises, derive lemmas, show graphs, drive to conclusion)
- listicle (thematically related bullets in any order)
- story (characters, plot, conflict, novelistic suspense)
What other structures do you find helpful?
The style of a piece is often implicit. It’s the kind of thing GPT-3 infers automatically.
But it can be useful to state explicitly. For example, you don’t want to write a research paper like a mystery novel. Put the conclusion in the headline, not after 200 pages of suspense.
Here’s another one that’s useful for academic talks:
- tell them what you are going to tell them
- tell them
- then tell them what you told them
Also, put the basic material up front so everyone gets something out of it, and the advanced material towards the end.
American anarchy is already becoming visible on the borders of empire. Western ideologies of chaos have eroded state capacity.
Not just recently, but for decades. What was neoconservatism after all but chaos? No plan but permanent war in the Middle East. wisdomofcrowds.live/the-coming-sto…
Just as the UK handed things off to the culturally adjacent US, the dark horse scenario is that democratic India and its diaspora need to become the global champion of liberal values, relative to China, if America descends into anarchy.