Thread by @DeanMThomson

Despite the strong headline voting intention numbers, the devil is in the details for the SNP.

There are signs that it isn’t all plain sailing for the governing party.

The latest Ipsos Mori poll.
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‘Since the Scottish Parliament elections in May 2021, do you think the Scottish Government has done a good or bad job at...?

👉 Improving the National Health Service in Scotland: ‘good job’ 40%, ‘bad job’ 48%
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👉Dealing with crime: ‘good job’ 40%, ‘bad job’ 40%

Seems voters have noticed the rising crime in Scotland, such as rising sexual crimes.
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This one is most interesting!

👉 Handling the implications of Brexit for Scotland: ‘good job’ 37%, ‘bad job’ 43%
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So more voters think the SNP government has done a bad job than a good job handling the implications of brexit. This should scare Nicola Sturgeon who has sought to weaponise brexit to boost SNP and indy chances.
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👉 Improving the education system in Scotland: ‘good job’ 35%, ‘bad job’ 46%

Seems Scots are not blind to the education system plummeting down the PISA rankings…
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So on education, healthcare, brexit handling and crime voters are giving the SNP government a failing grade.

In the long run this matters. A slow corrosion under the surface ward away at SNP popular appeal.
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It could weaken potential turnout should ‘yes’ voters ever decide Nicola Sturgeon has sold them a pup regarding assurances of indy being just around the next corner.
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➡️ Meanwhile Anas Sarwar is seen by voters nearly as favourably as the first minister. This is despite her benefitting from the formidable SNP PR machine & governmental incumbent the benefits.
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Sturgeon: +20 (and trending downwards, note the trend line)

Sarwar: +17 (and he still has plenty undecideds he can win over, Sturgeon does not)
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(The poll can be found here: ipsos.com/sites/default/…)

NB: the constitutional question isn’t rated as the top issue facing Scotland even among SNP supporters!

So the top issue in eyes of SNP supporters is healthcare. Which incidentally is an issue voters are increasingly giving the SNP a failing grade over.

That’s something worth keeping an eye on.