What does the "smart money" think of Omicron?
Always interesting to read what analysts with huge $$$ on the line (and with no incentive other than to make more $$) think. JP Morgan's take:
"Current data does not appear alarming as of this time" –>
Always interesting to read what analysts with huge $$$ on the line (and with no incentive other than to make more $$) think. JP Morgan's take:
"Current data does not appear alarming as of this time" –>
"South African cases near the pandemic avg (49th %tile), and COVID fatalities near the bottom (4th %tile) – a fairly favorable situation relative to past 2 years (and sig better than the rest of the world where the cases are in the 64th, and deaths in the 17th percentile)." ->
"Despite Omicron being around for several weeks, a media blitz happened on Thanksgiving evening, one of the lowest points of market liquidity for the whole year, prompting a crash in various assets sensitive to global growth and recovery such as Oil." 🤔->
"A second blow to markets was delivered shortly after, also in the middle of night in the U.S. (Monday midnight), with the Moderna story - later largely invalidated."🤔
"Many clients have told us they are not worried about Omicron itself, but the reaction of governments."->
"Many clients have told us they are not worried about Omicron itself, but the reaction of governments."->
"Another source of confusion comes from assessments of Omicron’s transmissibility. Broadly circulated claims that the new variant is 500 times more infectious than Delta seem implausible. For instance, assume that R0 for Delta is 4, so Omicron would have an R0 of 2,000" 🤡->
"meaning 1 infected person results in 2,000 new infections? ...highly unlikely when on avg an individual has 16 daily contacts, and, by that math, the whole world would have been already infected in less than a week (i.e., 3 cycles would result in 2000^3= 8Bn infections). 🤡🤡->
"While it is likely that Omicron is more transmissible, early reports suggest it may also be less deadly – which would fit into the pattern of virus evolution observed historically."->
"(if) a less severe/more transmissible virus quickly crowds out more severe variants, could the Omicron variant be a catalyst to transform a deadly pandemic into something similar to seasonal flu? That would fit with historical patterns of previous respiratory virus pandemics"->
"if that scenario were to happen, instead of skipping two letters and naming it Omicron, the WHO could have skipped all the way to Omega."
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