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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
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3 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Not at all sure that any politician is able to get their heads around even this simple explanation of exponential growth.

After nearly 2 years of an exponential growth Pandemic.
And remember.

It seems highly probable that it was hiding away here by mid November at the latest

So that is already at least 6 lots of 3 days in the table embedded.

Do your own maths.
H/t @beasuchti 🇿🇦 DAILY growth

Date Cases Positivity
25/11 2,465 6.5%
26/11 2,828 9.1%
27/11 3,220 9.2%
28/11 2,858 9.8%
29/11 2,273 10.7%
30/11 4,373 10.2%
01/12 8,561 16.5%
02/12 11,535 22.4%
03/12 16,055 24.3%
8 days. From 2,465. To 16,055

And positivity started at 6.5% and ended 8 days later at 24.3%

Rising very fast indeed.

So nearly 1 in 4 testing positive today suggesting that A LOT of cases are being missed.
Hospitalisations lag cases
Remember 🇿🇦 markedly lower vaccination (particularly in the young ) than 🇬🇧.

Population markedly skewed to the young & fit.

These hospitalisation data are not pretty. Compare the first 2 weeks in Tshwane (the SA eye of the storm) DELTAv Omicron
This is what 17 days in Gauteng, 🇿🇦 looks like

148 on 16-11-21 to 16,055.

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More from @fascinatorfun

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
5 Dec
UK’s progress on Covid now squandered :Sir Jeremy Farrar

“The longer this virus continues to spread in largely unvaccinated populations globally, the more likely it is that a variant that can overcome our vaccines and treatments will emerge,” he writes. theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
“If that happens, we could be close to square one.

“This political drift and lack of leadership is prolonging the pandemic for everyone, with governments unwilling to really address inequitable access to the vaccines, tests and treatment”
He said that the urgent action needed had not changed – “wearing masks indoors, increasing testing, social distancing, isolating if positive (with support to do so) and vaccination will all help to drive down transmission and protect against illness.”
Read 5 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
5 Dec
PROF Rudo Mathivha. Frontline ICU Physician in 🇿🇦 . One hospital in Tshwane. Admitting 5-10 children under 12 at a time
The children are coming in with moderate to severe disease. Coming in needing supportive oxygen & therapy.

Not like earlier waves
“Yesterday we lost a 15yr old healthy child. No underlying condition. Nothing we could do stopped the rapid deterioration.”

17 yr old intubated

Hospitals are not designed for a multitude of v sick children

Must take measures to prevent transmission in children too.
She also says they have large numbers of young adults, largely unvaccinated and appeals to them to get vaccinated to help break the chains of transmission.
Read 7 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
5 Dec
Interesting thread on the early days of Omicron.

Currently most affecting the young, so, not surprisingly less severe outcomes at.
Tshwane
- 80% of admissions = people< 50 (this is also the case across Gauteng province)
- 19% = children aged 0-9
- 28% = 30-39 years
Hard to put a lot of weight on vaccination status without bigger numbers given the age groups most affected are also least vaccinated. Is this BECAUSE they are not vaccinated or because they represent the majority of the pop in these age groups.
Time will tell esp as older (& more vaccinated) ages more affected

1. Most #COVID19 patients didn't know they had COVID when they got admitted (admitted for another condition)
2. A smaller % of patients required oxygen than in previous waves
Read 5 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Dec
It’s that last sentence from @BBCRosAtkins that says it

Also @BBCRosAtkins ,however uncomfortable it might be, the @metpoliceuk were the security detail outside & inside Number 10…& at a time when the same @metpoliceuk were issuing fines to far poorer people.

Answers needed
I also want to call out the @metpoliceuk “not investigating offences retrospectively” as the most massive hogwash.

Most crimes are investigated retrospectively.

The difference here is that @metpoliceuk officers were WITNESSES and should have both preserved the evidence …

AND
Investigated on the spot @BBCRosAtkins

They were there to break up the party in the interests of public health & also fair and even handed dealing.

This is as much about the @metpoliceuk weakness as the arrogant disregard of the Government’s own rules by those IN Government.
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Dec
Yes. I think another police force should investigate this.

Not the Met.

Who were highly likely involved either as material witnesses or actively complicit.
As for @lucyallan and her double standards when it came to Margaret Ferrier.
Did she show the same outrage at her colleague Alex Chalk who was notified he was a known close contact of a test positive person on a Friday..and travelled from London to Cheltenham (over 2hrs..rush hour) on the same day…before getting a positive result to his swab?
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
3 Dec
#OMRICON 🇿🇦 GOV & PUBLIC HEALTH BRIEFING DATA

Love the way numerous people were spouting “but it is mild this time” without a single data point to support the suggestion

Just a GP who, by her own evidence, had seen just a couple of dozen patients with Omicron, mostly young men
The good news is the early data on vaccination is promising and they have not been boosting.

However. It should be borne in mind that a high proportion of people have not been vaccinated in SA particularly in younger age groups…so more unvaccinated would be expected anyway.
Only time will tell how well, as cases move up through the age groups, how well they will offset risk.

About 65% of the over 60s have been vaccinated.

Fingers crossed.
Read 5 tweets

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