Thread by @Biotech2k1

Taking a look at the #Synthetic_Biology landscape:

This is another area that has gotten crushed in the biotech sell off. It was another space that was over loved and now its just getting wiped out as panic takes over.

1/ I just recently started buying into the synthetic biology space. Even after so much carnage, its been painful to watch with the small positions I have. I personally think that synthetic biology plays a key role in the future of biotech.

2/ Synthetic Biology is all about programming cells like bacteria or yeast to turn them into factories to produce ingredients for other products. Its the blending together gene editing and cell engineering.

3/ The concept for Synthetic Biology is about sustainable ingredients. They can program these cells to become factories for so many products. They could produce insulin. They could produce any protein or enzyme. The potential is unlimited and these are sustainable resources.

4/ One of the products I saw was harvested from killing tons of sharks. Today, we can use synthetic biology to produce that same protein without killing all those sharks. This helps prevent species extinction due to product demands.

5/ The key for synthetic biology will be scale. They will need to be able to scale the process so that the costs come down. This needs to be accessible by all companies that need sustainable ingredients.

6/ This space is still in its infancy. There are a lot of companies, a few fan favorites, but no dominate industry leader. I personally own $DNA, $TWST, $CDXS and $AMRS. We will look at these and a few more.

7/ $DNA is the clear fan favorite with a mega massive market cap that defies logic. I keep hearing how they will scale to be worth so many billions in the next few years, but that is hope not fact. What may happen could be dramatically different.

8/ $TWST is my personal favorite. They have a little bit of a few cool technologies. Their DNA manufacturing business is exciting, but its not a very big market. They have a sequencing business and a clinical development busines. Their DNA storage is super cool if it works out.

9/ $CDXS is focused on manufacturing enzymes for use in clinical development and commercial use. They make things like DNA polymerase, RNA polymerase and Reverse Transcriptase. Its a very promising business, but not sure how big the potential for this really is.

10/ $AMRS is my underdog pick. They have some cool products already commercial and earning good revenues. I think their management is lacking. They sound like used car salesmen. I would prefer they just do their jobs. I have this company, but its on probation.

11/ $BLI is the one I do not really like. When I look at their website, they have all the cool stuff, but it seems mostly in concept not reality. Whether or not they can actually deliver on any of it is yet to be determined. This is a higher risk pick in my opinion.

12/ $ZY is the small cap in this space. Its been wrecked lately after a disastrous earnings and replacement of management. This company has serious issue and its a very high risk pick.

13/ Personally, I like to bet on the best of bread companies because winners keep on winning and losers only know how to mess stuff up.

14/ Most of these companies are already commercial and have about $100 million or more in revenues. The valuations are all over the map in this space. $DNA trades at a whopping $13 billion even after dropping nearly 50%. Its still trading at 3x the price of its next competitor.

15/ The $TWST valuation is at $4 billion which still seems expensive for $250 million forward sales for 2022. Its still 1/3 the value of $DNA which is expected to post the exact same level of 2022 sales. Value would require consistent growth to drive value.

16/ $CDXS is about half the value of $TWST and projects about half the revenues going forward. I think $AMRS offers the best value with $225 million project revenues and only half the value of $TWST. Its clearly getting a huge discount because of its weak management.

17/ I don't think I would even recommend anyone spending money on $BLI or $ZY. They both seem like very high risk companies with some serious potential issues. I would need to see more from them to ease my concerns.

18/ I think the synthetic lethality space is still new and its has a lot of potential should they be able to scale the process and reduce the cost. Its going to be an exciting decade for this technology. I am betting it works out and becomes an industry of the future.