Taking a look at the Targeted Therapies Landscape.
This is a very broad category which attempts to target cancer cells specifically over healthy cells. I have been focused on this space for years around drugs that target the genetic drivers of cancer.
1/ The targeted therapy space is very big, but I love the space of the genetic drivers that drive cell growth. Cancer comes from uncontrolled growth. Human cells are highly regulated to prevent cell growth when its not necessary.
2/ There are genes responsible for driving the growth forward when proper signals are present. There are other genes that block cell growth when certain conditions are not met. Mutations in these genes lead to uncontrolled growth and cancer.
3/ My focus has been on the 3 types of pathways that regulated cell growth. They are the growth pathways, the cell cycle pathways and the DNA damage repair pathways.
4/ Synthetic Lethality has been a new concept in this pathways space. Its about targeting multiple genes at one time that will exploit the mutations of cancer to cause those cells to become unstable and die. There is little data in this space so far.
5/ The companies currently involved with synthetic lethality are $MRTX and $RPTX so far. Some of the other companies are developing drugs in this space like $BPMC has a CDK2 drug for CDK2 driven cancers.
6/ There was a time I planned to break out the synthetic lethality space, but its too integrated with all the pathways so I kept it as part of this theme. Its one of the new cutting edge areas around the pathways space.
7/ This area of the science has been relatively cheap in this biotech market. It never participated in the bubble. There are a lot of companies in this space, but I will highlight a few I think are a good jumping off point.
8/ The first is $BPMC which is one of my favorite companies. They have have top quality management and a pipeline that keeps on giving. They have 2 commercial drugs and several others in development.
9/ $MRTX is the best in class KRAS company with their late stage drug for KRAS G12C. They have another late stage drug Sitravatinib which gets little attention. They have early stage drugs for KRAS G12D and MTAP.
10/ $RVMD is one of my beloved specs. They are highly focused on the 2 key growth pathways around MAPK and mTOR. They have many drugs in early development across MAPK like SHP2, SOS1, RAS and KRAS. They also have an early mTOR drug for 4EBP1.
11/ $ERAS has the old Ignyta management so we know it has great management. They are working on many of the same MAPK targets. They have multiple drugs for SHP2, EFGR, ERK and RAS. They are focused on finding combinations to suppress the MAPK pathway.
12/ I use to own $TPTX and $RPTX, but had some concerns about their data. When in doubt, sell sold them out so I did. I think there is still a chance they could be great companies, but their higher risk.
13/ $RLAY and $SGR fall into this space, even though, I have them in my AI drug development category. $SDGR is taking on some of the newer pathways in the cell growth cycle while $RLAY is taking on some of the most difficult pathways like PI3Ka.
14/ There are other spaces in targeted therapies for investor who are not as into these growth pathways as me. There are tons of antibody drugs that target key targets like HER2, EFGR, RORa and so many others. Even Antibody Drug Conjugates (ADCs) fall into this space.
15/ When I look at the valuations across this space, many of these companies trade an mere fractions of the over loved and over owned themes. They are no less important as these companies are saving lives every day with their therapies for cancer.
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Incase you missed anything. Here I am going to link my landscape posts. I think its critical to focus on the long term fundamentals of the companies when the market falls apart and throws us a sale.
Looking at the AI based Drug Development landscape.
This is one area of biotech many investors do not agree with me on. The blending together of tech with biotech to reduce costs and increase the level of success for clinical development.
1/ It takes over $1 billion to develop a new drug and 90% of those drugs will fail to ever reach commercial success. The use of tech in biotech can help reduce the cost and increase the success rate.
2/ There are many ways in which tech can help from understanding genomic data for developing new drug targets to screening many potential targets for the one that offers the best chance of success.
This is another area that has gotten crushed in the biotech sell off. It was another space that was over loved and now its just getting wiped out as panic takes over.
1/ I just recently started buying into the synthetic biology space. Even after so much carnage, its been painful to watch with the small positions I have. I personally think that synthetic biology plays a key role in the future of biotech.
2/ Synthetic Biology is all about programming cells like bacteria or yeast to turn them into factories to produce ingredients for other products. Its the blending together gene editing and cell engineering.
This is a sector that went from hot to not in a real hurry lately as the biotech sector has collapsed. Here I am going to go over the sector and where I think the opportunities are.
1/ I hear people talking about how far the CRISPR space has fallen. Some think its too far and some think its not far enough. What I do know is that this space has developed a lot since its bottom in 2020.
2/ We still have very strong data from $CRSP in SCD. Their data is second to none. This is a very huge indication where the only limit is capacity. We got very promising early data from $NTLA in in-vivo gene knockout.
I have been a massive bear on biotech all year. I have been calling it a bubble and calling for the $XBI to go to $112 ish. Now that were are hear, I am see hope for the future of biotech.
1/ When I look at the themes I have set my self up for going into the new year, I see areas of the science where next year will unfold data that will either validate or break these themes. That is part of the game of picking biotech stocks.
2/ If these themes work out, then this bear market, we experienced this year, will be a buying opportunity for a life time. I can't say they will work out, but I am very hopeful. Most of these companies are down now 50% to 70% from their peaks.