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29 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
1 of 5:

#Omicron from "horrific mutant variant" to "extremely mild" in 4 days.

After 13,470 new cases in 14 days there is as yet no confirmation of a single Omicron patient on a ventilator.
2 of 5:

The whole world has overreacted.

Omicron is already everywhere.

It was easily detected in South Africa as Delta cases are running below 5 per million.
3 of 5:

For similar case levels in the previous wave:

Total hospital admission are now 3 x lower.
ICU beds are 10x lower.
Ventilated beds are 10x lower.

(data source: @sugan2503 )
4 of 5:

The ratio in cases to hospitalisations has increased to 50:1, up from 10:1 a short while ago.

There is no increase in ICU or ventilated beds.

South Africa remains on lockdown level 1, which essentially is a curfew from midnight to 4am.
5 of 5:

The panic was created through incendiary language (horrific spike profile, really awful mutation) which should have no place in scientific discourse.

Covid deaths in Gauteng remain below 0.2 per million per day.

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More from @pieterstreicher

pieterstreicher Profile picture
27 Nov
1 of 8:

Message to the President:

Encourage responsible behaviour, don't impose restrictions that are futile for 80% of the population!

Encourage the vulnerable and those around the vulnerable to take extra care.

Think of the longterm wellbeing of children.
2 of 8:

Allow the vulnerable easy access to boosters. Don’t waste effort on, or antagonise the healthy. For the vast majority of the unvaccinated vulnerable, the problem is logistical.
3 of 8:

If this variant is significantly more transmissible, it will eventually get everywhere. Travel bans will be futile as this virus is already in other continents.
Read 8 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
24 Nov
1 of 4:

Metaphors drawn from the technology of the day has been a source for coming to grips with being human.

Take steam engine metaphors for example:

He or she is under pressure,
is overheating,
is about to burst,
needs to let off some steam or
needs to cool down!
2 of 4:

In the world of computers we are doing the same:

Society needs a reset.
Can you recall that memory?
He needs to recharge.

It is therefore not surprising that our response to the pandemic was influenced by our understanding of computers.

brownstone.org/articles/why-b…
3 of 4:

Humans are not computers. We act on faith and reason, not on instructions. There is a difference. If an instruction is not reasonable or the instructor not trusted, humans resist.

Moral reasoning involves being able to give reasons for our actions.
Read 4 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
24 Nov
1 of 4:

This is my current understanding of C-19 in SA:

Each new variant increased the herd immunity threshold (HIT) as R0 increased.

Affluent suburbs were able to slow the spread to some degree and had larger subsequent waves as a result of more transmissible variants. Image
2 of 4:

Sero levels remain below the theoretical SIR HIT level, but in townships the difference is very small now.

We can already see an attenuation in each epidemic wave in Khayelitsha which can only be ascribed to high community immunity levels.
3 of 4:

The pandemic might be almost over for the country, but not necessarily for all suburbs.

Those not yet infected will benefit the most from vaccines as they can now significantly reduce their risk of severe disease if infected.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
29 Oct
1 of 6:

Revisiting the original Imperial College 1st wave scenarios:

Firstly, 280 critical care beds/100k works out at 188k beds at the peak, which corresponds to 2.4m deaths, not 500k.

The 500k was later reduced to 350k, which would have given 39 critical care beds / 100k. ImageImage
2 of 6:

Secondly, notice the odd order of interventions and the curiously equal benefit of each. This is normally an indication of a thumb-suck exercise.

Surely, it would be sensible to start with the least disruptive measure first, for example, case isolation. Image
3 of 6:

And then add on more disruptive measures such as measures focussing specifically on the vulnerable.

Limiting high risk gatherings and warning the public about high risk locations such as crowded and noisy indoor venues could then be added. Image
Read 7 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
19 Oct
1 of 5:

While Thomas Kuhn suggested that we "follow the scientific community", Paul Feyerabend suggested we "follow scientific geniuses".

Galileo, Newton and Einstein embodied a rebel spirit that drove scientific innovation.

2 of 5:

Feyerabend saw science as a creative and artistic endeavour and believed that it should not limit itself to one method or constrain itself with dogmatic rules.

It is the people that put their careers and reputations on the line that transforms the history of science.
3 of 5:

If scientists act as self-righteous bullies, treating laymen as idiots, even if they are right, they should expect kick back from the community.

Instead, scientists should aim to broaden the understanding of their work and listen to the concerns of ordinary citizens.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
16 Sep
1 of 4:

A young and an old man see a lion in the veld. The young starts putting on his running shoes.

Surprised, the old man says "You can't outrun a lion!"

"I don't have to outrun the lion," said the young man, "I just have to outrun you."

@PanData19
2 of 4:

During this pandemic with multiple variants and multiple waves, 10-20% of the population might never be infected. Vaccines are not expected to increase this number by much.

Who ends up in this 10-20% matters.
3 of 4:

The mortality risk to the healthy young is 100,000x lower compared to the healthy old, and 500,000x lower compared to the old and sick.

By closing schools and hiding the young, are we not making it increasingly difficult for the old to remain in the 20% never infected?
Read 4 tweets

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