1 of 3:

30 November Gauteng #Omicron update:

The Delta wave was moved by 176 days to coincide with the Omicron wave.

Daily hospital admissions remain lower for similar case levels when comparing the Delta and Omicron numbers.
2 of 3:

The ratio of cases / hospital admissions (7d avg) is higher for Omicron compared to Delta.

The increase in ICU beds remain negligible. ICU beds increased by 15-25 per day during the start of the Delta wave.

Gauteng currently only has 27 patients on ventilators.
3 of 3:

The data points to significantly milder disease at this stage. There could be multiple reasons for this:

1. Younger age of those infected.
2. Immunity from previous infection or from vaccination reducing disease severity.
3. Reduced virulence of Omicron variant.
Data source:

NICD hospital report
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…

@sugan2503
The last 2 hospital admissions data points reflected the change in total admissions. These have now been replaced by the NICD daily admissions numbers, which were slightly lower:

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More from @pieterstreicher

1 Dec
1 of 5:

1 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

After 24,000 new cases in the last 14 days, there is hardly an increase in ICU or ventilated beds occupied.

The ratio of cases to admissions is now close to 60:1.
2 of 5:

Gauteng only has 63 patients in ICU and 27 patients on ventilators, with no increase in the last 24 hours.

This is well below the lowest levels between the 1st and 2nd and the 2nd and 3rd waves.

This points to mostly mild cases.

source:
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 5:

Test positivity rates have only started to increase in the densely populated areas of Johannesburg. These areas are likely to have higher community immunity levels.

For 90% of the country, test positivity rates remain below 2.5%.

source:
nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov
1 of 5:

#Omicron from "horrific mutant variant" to "extremely mild" in 4 days.

After 13,470 new cases in 14 days there is as yet no confirmation of a single Omicron patient on a ventilator.
2 of 5:

The whole world has overreacted.

Omicron is already everywhere.

It was easily detected in South Africa as Delta cases are running below 5 per million.
3 of 5:

For similar case levels in the previous wave:

Total hospital admission are now 3 x lower.
ICU beds are 10x lower.
Ventilated beds are 10x lower.

(data source: @sugan2503 )
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
1 of 8:

Message to the President:

Encourage responsible behaviour, don't impose restrictions that are futile for 80% of the population!

Encourage the vulnerable and those around the vulnerable to take extra care.

Think of the longterm wellbeing of children.
2 of 8:

Allow the vulnerable easy access to boosters. Don’t waste effort on, or antagonise the healthy. For the vast majority of the unvaccinated vulnerable, the problem is logistical.
3 of 8:

If this variant is significantly more transmissible, it will eventually get everywhere. Travel bans will be futile as this virus is already in other continents.
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov
1 of 4:

Metaphors drawn from the technology of the day has been a source for coming to grips with being human.

Take steam engine metaphors for example:

He or she is under pressure,
is overheating,
is about to burst,
needs to let off some steam or
needs to cool down!
2 of 4:

In the world of computers we are doing the same:

Society needs a reset.
Can you recall that memory?
He needs to recharge.

It is therefore not surprising that our response to the pandemic was influenced by our understanding of computers.

brownstone.org/articles/why-b…
3 of 4:

Humans are not computers. We act on faith and reason, not on instructions. There is a difference. If an instruction is not reasonable or the instructor not trusted, humans resist.

Moral reasoning involves being able to give reasons for our actions.
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
1 of 4:

This is my current understanding of C-19 in SA:

Each new variant increased the herd immunity threshold (HIT) as R0 increased.

Affluent suburbs were able to slow the spread to some degree and had larger subsequent waves as a result of more transmissible variants. Image
2 of 4:

Sero levels remain below the theoretical SIR HIT level, but in townships the difference is very small now.

We can already see an attenuation in each epidemic wave in Khayelitsha which can only be ascribed to high community immunity levels.
3 of 4:

The pandemic might be almost over for the country, but not necessarily for all suburbs.

Those not yet infected will benefit the most from vaccines as they can now significantly reduce their risk of severe disease if infected.
Read 5 tweets
29 Oct
1 of 6:

Revisiting the original Imperial College 1st wave scenarios:

Firstly, 280 critical care beds/100k works out at 188k beds at the peak, which corresponds to 2.4m deaths, not 500k.

The 500k was later reduced to 350k, which would have given 39 critical care beds / 100k. ImageImage
2 of 6:

Secondly, notice the odd order of interventions and the curiously equal benefit of each. This is normally an indication of a thumb-suck exercise.

Surely, it would be sensible to start with the least disruptive measure first, for example, case isolation. Image
3 of 6:

And then add on more disruptive measures such as measures focussing specifically on the vulnerable.

Limiting high risk gatherings and warning the public about high risk locations such as crowded and noisy indoor venues could then be added. Image
Read 7 tweets

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