Harsh assessment from senior US State Dept official about new Iranian government approach at last round of Vienna talks. What we have seen over the last week is getting ready for them meant advancing their nuclear program in intentionally provocative ways, stonewalling IAEA 1/
while coming back with an unserious proposal that tried to walk back the compromises floated by Iran in previous rounds of talks, pocket the potential compromises by others, and ask for more.
The official would not speak for Russia and China but said it is fair to say they were quite taken aback as well by the degree to which Iran walked back on its own compromises and doubled down on new requests. He said not just US/E3 but whole P5+1 was disappointed by the Iranians
Still a chance for Iran to show more seriousness if/when talks resume and senior State Dept official clear that is US preference, but it sounds like full-fledged pivot underway that does not think Iran seriously prepared to return to JCPOA.
Asked about what was in the Iranian proposals, the SSDO said we have made it a principle not to get into the details of the negotations. Suffice it to say...I will repeat, what said earlier, the days we were in Vienna, Iran did not show seriousness.
SSDO: It did not show the posture of a country that is seriously thinking of a rapid return to mutual compliance. I think that was evident to everyone. (need to check exact wording on next part, check transcript) preparing for a world in which no return to jcpoa
Believe the Senior State Dept official suggested a couple times he would be meeting/conversing with the Israelis this week. He said Sec Blinken and Israel PM Bennett had a very good call last week and will again this week be having these conversations with that context in mind
transcript of the call 👉🏼 state.gov/briefing-with-…

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More from @lrozen

5 Dec
🧵tentative impression of some chagrin/defensiveness on Iran side after harsh reaction to its proposals in vienna last week as obnoxius overreach gives me for moment anyhow a smidgen of hope they did not intend to overshoot that much. and maybe do want to be seen as serious
(“hope” not right word above but after trying to search for another one for a while gave up in interests of time. sub a word that is less hopeful than hope.)
essentially, among the different motivations of the Iran side—the Iran govt, the Raisi admin, the nezam, etc.—one of the dynamics that seems to be at work is the desire of the new iran negotiating team to show success at home and that they could do it better than last guys
Read 10 tweets
3 Dec
🧵New from me: ‘Back to square one almost’: Iran talks end in Vienna with no apparent progress diplomatic.substack.com/p/almost-back-…
European diplomats say after the new Iranian admin waited 5 months to resume nuclear talks, its proposed changes to a text crafted over 6 previous rounds of talks walk “back almost all of the difficult compromises crafted after many months of hard work.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/almost-back-…
“Over 5 months ago, Iran interrupted negotiations,” E3 dips said. “Since then, Iran has fast-forwarded its nuclear program. This week, it has back-tracked on diplomatic progress made.”
“unclear how these new gaps can be closed in a realistic timeframe”

diplomatic.substack.com/p/almost-back-…
Read 8 tweets
2 Dec
it is just a couple photos, but noted throughout the week the kind of smiling, overconfident faces of the lead Iran negotiator and the rather grim faces of the EU coordinator and here the E3 reps.
Concern of the latter is they just may be running out of time
The reasons the timeline may be so off is the IAEA reported yesterday Iran started enriching with more advanced centrifges at Fordow. Breakout now about 1 month, and if Iran stays on current trajectory, could be a couple weeks in January.
Can see why the parties want to figure out from Vienna a way that possibly buys them more time to figure out how they want to proceed, when the clock is ticking so fast.
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
It is somewhat extraordinary the amount of recent Israeli rethinking out loud their past advocacy against the Iran deal and how sabotage ops v Iran may have backfired—all while Israel officials, meanwhile, still going around asking E3 etc for a credible military threat.
the latter also pretty delusional
Read 6 tweets
30 Nov
🧵I reported a couple weeks ago that diplomats interacting with the Iranian team ahead of the nuclear deal revival talks that resumed in Vienna yesterday said there was still a lack of clarity about what the Iranian position was. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-positio… 1/ Image
“1 key question where there is still uncertainty, an official from a current party to the deal described, is whether Iran expects to pick up the talks where they left off after 6 rounds of talks in June, start talks from scratch, or something in between.
diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-positio…
“Another diplomat from another nation in the deal, speaking not for attribution, also suggested that, even after recent consultations, he is still unclear what the Iranian position is.” 3/ diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-positio…
Read 8 tweets
29 Nov
New from me: 'Sense of urgency' as Iran talks resume in Vienna diplomatic.substack.com/p/sense-of-urg…
US official seemingly downplayed report on Israel alleging Iran taking steps to possibly prepare for higher level enrichment, saying it's sticking to its diplomatic course
diplomatic.substack.com/p/sense-of-urg…
"We will not comment on intelligence matters," senior admin official. "But it's no secret that the former administration's decision to abandon the JCPOA led to a dramatic and unprecedented acceleration of Iran's nuclear program." diplomatic.substack.com/p/sense-of-urg…
Read 7 tweets

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