Today it's the most overlooked & misunderstood opportunity in all of DeFi, with TAM >$20B ARR.
If u don't *really* know what it is, chances are you're getting massively screwed on capital efficiency & don't even know it.
🧵/
1/ What is cross margining?
Googling this term returns only half the story.
The full picture has 2 parts:
1. cross-asset margining
(what most blogs talk about & a solved problem on most Cexs)
2. cross-exchange margining
(terribly overlooked & a problem for both Cexs & Dexs)
2/ Cross-asset margining is where an exchange lets u re-use the same aggregate account collateral to post margin on multiple trades, regardless of the composition of underlying margin assets:
e.g. whether Bob has
2x $BTC+ 8x $ETH + 100x $USDC = 128,762x $USDC
OR
128,762x $USDC
What happens when an exchange DOESN'T do cross-asset margining?
e.g. Bob wants to short 25x $BTC front-month futures from a 10x margin account
i-suck-Dex: "ok plz post 2.5x $BTC collateral"
Bob: "but i don't have 2.5x"
i-suck-Dex: "then go swap some of ur $USDC or $ETH, mf*er!"
This is extremely annoying. Cuz:
i. Fees
now Bob needs to pay 1 liver + 2 kidneys in gas for the unnecessary transaction
ii. Capital efficiency
even after he comes back with 2.5x BTC, that original 8x $ETH and 100x $USDC are now just lying around IDLE in his portfolio
Sucks.
3/ Luckily, cross-asset margining is a solved problem on most Cexes! Hooray!
And all tradfi OCC member exchanges here: bit.ly/3olk2HJ
4/ Now what about DeFi?
Sadly i don't know if there are any fully-functional cross-asset margin solutions in defi today. (If u know, please prove me wrong & drop a note for everyone here!)
5/ Cross-exchange margining solves the same collateral efficiency problem as x-asset.
Just on a higher dimension.
This is when u can re-use collateral across multiple accounts on multiple Cexs & Dexs for a trade on any exchange.
Tradfi has this👏.
Crypto does not😢 ... yet 🤔.
6/ What do we need to solve to add fully functional x-margining to today's crypto markets?
1. An "all seeing" entity that can read all ur positions in all accounts 2. A real-time data feed on all asset correlations 3. An entity to run & report Monte Carlo simulation stress tests
First it pools together EOD positions across all accounts in a CM (clearing member). Using historical vol data it then computes min margin required to cover 99% expected shortfall (i.e. 1% probability of liquidation).
End/
I'm not usually one to go around declaring giant overlooked market opportunities but this problem is so prevalent among all my trader friends that SOMEONE NEEDS TO SOLVE IT! 🦾
Happy weekend! ✌️
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It's 2021.
😡 $1 in Chase earns 0.05% APY.
😲 1 UST in Anchor earns 20% APY!
🤯 1 UST in a market-neutral fund running 50x levered BTC contango trades earns >300% APY!
How are crypto yields SO DAMN HIGH, and is this sustainable? 🧵.
👇
1/ Yield in crypto comes from 4 main sources
a. demand for leverage (e.g. basis trading)
b. risk premia (e.g. options writing)
c. protocol revenue (e.g. staking, LP)
d. payment-in-kind (e.g. token rewards)
For each, let's explore:
- what trades are involved
- is it sustainable?
2/ But first, some stats...
Comparing lending yields from USDC (up to 8%+) vs. USD (3.25% prime rate). 👇
[Keep this in mind for when we deep-dive on "demand for leverage"]
Restricting trading between 9:30-4pm M-F is pure stupidity. It's market discrimination.
24/7 is the future
And our fastest way to get there is via crypto derivatives: on-chain markets for tokenized US equities and options.
🧵on OPTIONS MARKET-MAKING ON-CHAIN
Note: this thread is a collection of all the operational challenges and structural considerations required to bring a fully functional system of tokenized options on-chain.
Expect more questions than answers.
Because such a fully functional system doesn't yet exist.
PART 1: How "normal" options MM works
As traders we take a lot for granted. Options markets somehow "just work" in TradFi.
But how does price discovery actually work?
How do local updates propagate to rest of the options chain?
What happens to longs when shorts get liquidated?
Earning yield/ "LP"ing is marketed as "passive income" as if risk-free, but in fact that's a traitorously inaccurate sales pitch for what it ACTUALLY is:
Covered options writing.
An exposé on the real risks & returns👇.
🧵/
1/ People think it's like holding treasuries. It's not.
Returns on yield farming depend on:
- absolute returns of the underlying (aka beta)
- impermanent loss (aka relative volatility)
- fees & rewards (theta premium)
- capital concentration - @Uniswap V3 (strike selection)
Returns on treasuries (and safe/IG bonds) depend on:
- interest rates
- inflation
For high yield bonds, add:
- counter-party/default risk
- liquidity risk
Clearly "yield" in TradFi and "yield" in DeFi look NOTHING alike.
LP yield is more like betting on options premium. Why?
Crypto Market Map 101
(aka a hierarchical DeFi-TradFi mapping)
If ur a:
- crypto newbie
- confused by who's who & what they all do
- dying for someone to draw parallels btw defi & tradfi infra
- crypto entrepreneur looking for opps
With all this Debt Ceiling talk, here's another throwback:
What are shadow banks?
How did they spur the 2008 financial crisis?
"But shadow banks aren't a thing anymore, right?"
Wrong.
Today they underwrite more debt than regular banks.
Thread👇
1/ If it looks like a duck & quacks like a duck...
Is it a 🦆?
If a company moves money around and lends to other companies even (especially) when real banks refuse, then is it a bank?
In 2007, economist Paul McCulley named these things "shadow banks."
The name stuck around.
2/ What do they do?
4 things.
- Transfer credit risk: from loan originator to 3rd party
- Lever up: borrow $ to invest & make more $
- Transform liquidity: use cash-like liabilities to buy hard-to-sell assets
- Transform maturity: use short-term deposits to fund long term loans