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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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4 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1/6
Screaming red Bloomberg headline this morning:

* BITCOIN PLUNGES MORE THAN 20% IN SATURDAY TRADING

As the chart below shows, BTC is still down about 11%.
If it closes here (midnight), this will be BTC's worst day since May and its fifth worst day in 2021.
2/6
BUT! ETH is only down 4.4% and it has seen 38 days worse than today.
3/6
BTC (red) has really lagged of late. It is way behind ETH (blue) and the overall market of coins (black).

In fact, BTC is now "only" up 26% YTD. The idea that BTC could lose money in 2021 is coming into the conversation.
4/6
Consequently, talk of "the flippening," where the market cap of ETH surpasses BTC, grows by the day. ETH is now 52% of BTC, a four year high.
5/6
Typically, BTC outperforms in a decline, as it is perceived as a safer coin. Not this time.

So, what is behind the crypto crash this weekend?
6/6
Could one of the narratives be the need to move out of BTC and into other cryptos, such as ETH, that "do more" as they have far more developed protocols and smart contracts?

Otherwise, what is holding back BTC?

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
5 Dec
1/15

A longish tweet thread to highlight where I think we are with Omicron and why I'm worried about its implications for the markets and economy.

This is about the way I see it, not what I want.

@ErikSTownsend @EpsilonTheory @ttmygh @MishGEA @GeorgeGammon
2/15

The US reported over 61k cases Sat.

The data has a strong day of the week pattern. Y'day was the most amount of Sat cases in 3-mos, worrisome.

The 7-day avg is up 65% in the last week (green).
Maybe distorted from Xgiving, but as the top panel shows, this US cases are 🚀
3/15

My long-held concern is when one of these regions spikes, the other follows. This looks more and more the case in the last few days.

Restated, history suggests the US will follow Europe to new highs, or close to it.
Read 15 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
4 Dec
1/7
I've been arguing for some time, this is the most chart right now. When one spikes, the other follows.

So, with Europe spiking to new all-time highs, will the US follow?

History says yes.
2/7
Unfortunately, the US had another big day in cases yesterday. It was the second highest in the last two months.

See the orange line (the 7-day average), it is now going straight up and almost 120k/day.
3/7
And it is not just cases, US hospitalizations have started to turn higher.

And so have deaths, although some of this could be inconsistent reporting around Thanksgiving.
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
3 Dec
1/7
What is the issue with inflation/the economy?

3 three charts to detail.

* Record consumption of durables (or "stuff").

Restated, the US economy has record demand. Not good demand, but record demand (bottom panel, distance above the trendline).

@kofinas @mercoglianos
2/7
To meet this demand Pacific rim countries are running factors as fast as they can.

The area in this chart is the trade deficit five years BEFORE COVID (2015 to 2019). Red is 2021.

Asian countries are sending us a record amount of stuff, way ahead of pre-covid levels.
3/7
40% of these shipments go to the LA and Long Beach ports.

They are also running at record rates, way above the five years before COVID.

We call it a bottleneck, and while that is technically true, "running at the limits of capacity" might be a better term.
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
3 Dec
1/6
This is the most important chart for the US right now.

Historically when one spikes the other follows. Now that we are a week past Thanksgiving, the US spiked to over 100k, a 2-month high and rising fast.

Is the US on its way to 200k over the next few/several weeks?
2/6
Current COVID policy is a disaster. It is based in one metric, panicking over case counts.

This is wrong but this is not going to change.
3/6
I noted this yesterday with Portugal.

They have an 87% vax rate, mid-90% range if you exclude under 5-years old (not approved yet), and yet their cases are going up and they are locking down.

Cases go up, panic, and lock everything down.

Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
2 Dec
1/3
Lost in the news this week has been the huge "kink" in the T-Bill yield curve between Dec 15 - 23. This is not a year-end problem as that would be a Dec 31 kink.
The market rapidly pricing in a technical default.

Notice how much it has moved since Monday (Nov 30).
2/3
Back on Oct 5 (orange) the T-Bill curve also had a big "kink" anticipating a technical default, then expected to be Oct 18 (or 12 days away). The next day Congress passed a $480 billion increase in the Debt Ceiling, extending it to "late December."
3/3
Now (blue above) the "kink" is even larger than Oct and instead of being 12 days away, the market has this more fear of a technical default priced in 13 to 19 days away.

The market's message ... "buckle up, it's coming."

And every day this fear grows and grows.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
26 Nov
1/3
The desire among investment bank bank economists, and the Fed, that inflation is transitory is so strong that they either ignore data that conflicts, or intentionally get it wrong.

This story is no different. It is wrong.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/3
Their is no need to get it wrong as the CME's website updates these numbers in real-time. It's one click away to get correct.

cmegroup.com/trading/intere…

As of 5 minutes ago, the probability of a JUNE rate hike was 66%. Not September as noted above.
3/3
This story also says the second rate hike is 2023.

Nope!

(add up the yellow highlights),
June 2022 odds of first rate hike is 66%

Sept 2022 second hike odds is 49.5% (Nov is well over 50%)

Dec 2022 third rate hike odds 45%. (Feb 2023 is well over 50%).
Read 4 tweets

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