1/15
A longish tweet thread to highlight where I think we are with Omicron and why I'm worried about its implications for the markets and economy.
This is about the way I see it, not what I want.
@ErikSTownsend @EpsilonTheory @ttmygh @MishGEA @GeorgeGammon
A longish tweet thread to highlight where I think we are with Omicron and why I'm worried about its implications for the markets and economy.
This is about the way I see it, not what I want.
@ErikSTownsend @EpsilonTheory @ttmygh @MishGEA @GeorgeGammon
2/15
The US reported over 61k cases Sat.
The data has a strong day of the week pattern. Y'day was the most amount of Sat cases in 3-mos, worrisome.
The 7-day avg is up 65% in the last week (green).
Maybe distorted from Xgiving, but as the top panel shows, this US cases are 🚀
The US reported over 61k cases Sat.
The data has a strong day of the week pattern. Y'day was the most amount of Sat cases in 3-mos, worrisome.
The 7-day avg is up 65% in the last week (green).
Maybe distorted from Xgiving, but as the top panel shows, this US cases are 🚀
3/15
My long-held concern is when one of these regions spikes, the other follows. This looks more and more the case in the last few days.
Restated, history suggests the US will follow Europe to new highs, or close to it.
My long-held concern is when one of these regions spikes, the other follows. This looks more and more the case in the last few days.
Restated, history suggests the US will follow Europe to new highs, or close to it.
4/15
Chart with some new data. The % of the country that has gotten a booster.
12.75% (red) or 14.89% as a % of the pop eligible for a booster, over 12-yrs old (green).
Total % of the pop fully vaxed is 60% (blue). Over 12-yr old pop fully vaxed is just over 70% (orange).
Chart with some new data. The % of the country that has gotten a booster.
12.75% (red) or 14.89% as a % of the pop eligible for a booster, over 12-yrs old (green).
Total % of the pop fully vaxed is 60% (blue). Over 12-yr old pop fully vaxed is just over 70% (orange).
5/15
Recall my belief that policy is driven by politicians panicking about cases 🚀
Last week NYC said 3 people tested positive for Omicron.
So, what does De Blasio do? Panic as the story below details
None of the 3 were private school teachers.
nytimes.com/2021/12/02/nyr…
Recall my belief that policy is driven by politicians panicking about cases 🚀
Last week NYC said 3 people tested positive for Omicron.
So, what does De Blasio do? Panic as the story below details
None of the 3 were private school teachers.
nytimes.com/2021/12/02/nyr…
6/15
Or see that Australia has COVID internment camps where thousands of Aussies just SUSPECTED of having COVID are forcibly held without rights, and subject to a $5000AU fine is they so much raise their voice to their jailers about their plight.
zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch…
Or see that Australia has COVID internment camps where thousands of Aussies just SUSPECTED of having COVID are forcibly held without rights, and subject to a $5000AU fine is they so much raise their voice to their jailers about their plight.
zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch…
7/15
I worry that when US cases 🚀we will have economic restrictions ("don't you dare call them lockdowns!") that will impair the economy, creating even more inflation.
I worry that when US cases 🚀we will have economic restrictions ("don't you dare call them lockdowns!") that will impair the economy, creating even more inflation.
8/15
Under restrictions ordering amazon boxes is as easy as not under restrictions.
But producing the contents/delivering those boxes will become much harder.
So, the "fix" will be even higher prices (inflation) to balance supply/demand.
Explained
Under restrictions ordering amazon boxes is as easy as not under restrictions.
But producing the contents/delivering those boxes will become much harder.
So, the "fix" will be even higher prices (inflation) to balance supply/demand.
Explained
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1466895727859228680?s=20
9/15
Back to the vax chart (below again).
Using the over 12-yr old data, 14.89% have rec'd a booster (green).
If a full vax offers 6-mos of protection, as we are told. then only 21% of the pop has been fully vaxed in the last 6-mos (since June 5), as marked on the chart.
Back to the vax chart (below again).
Using the over 12-yr old data, 14.89% have rec'd a booster (green).
If a full vax offers 6-mos of protection, as we are told. then only 21% of the pop has been fully vaxed in the last 6-mos (since June 5), as marked on the chart.
10/15
The way a panicky politician will look at it is only 35% of the pop has been gotten booster or has been fully vaxed in the last 6-mos.
If cases are about to 🚀they will look at this and panic that 2/3s of the pop is at health risk and impose economic restrictions.
The way a panicky politician will look at it is only 35% of the pop has been gotten booster or has been fully vaxed in the last 6-mos.
If cases are about to 🚀they will look at this and panic that 2/3s of the pop is at health risk and impose economic restrictions.
11/15
Now, you could ask about natural immunity, treatments, hosp rates, or even free choice. All you're doing is showing you cannot think like a panicky politician!
Did De Blasio consider this when he randomly decided private school teachers need mandatory vax?
Now, you could ask about natural immunity, treatments, hosp rates, or even free choice. All you're doing is showing you cannot think like a panicky politician!
Did De Blasio consider this when he randomly decided private school teachers need mandatory vax?
12/15
Did Australia consider any of this when they used the might of the state to forcibly detain citizens without rights just SUSPECTED of COVID?
Of course, the answer is no.
So, if US cases 🚀, why should we not expect US politicians to panic and impose restrictions?
Did Australia consider any of this when they used the might of the state to forcibly detain citizens without rights just SUSPECTED of COVID?
Of course, the answer is no.
So, if US cases 🚀, why should we not expect US politicians to panic and impose restrictions?
13/n
Remember @WHCOS thinks forcing everyone into the basement is a good thing, he believes it makes the economy better!
Remember @WHCOS thinks forcing everyone into the basement is a good thing, he believes it makes the economy better!
https://twitter.com/WHCOS/status/1466071640433954820?s=20
14/15
Just this morning Fauci is out again literally bragging that he panicked last week when Omicron became a thing and slapped on travel restrictions.
Only now just thinking about "un-panicking," but giving no hard date when he will actually do it.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Just this morning Fauci is out again literally bragging that he panicked last week when Omicron became a thing and slapped on travel restrictions.
Only now just thinking about "un-panicking," but giving no hard date when he will actually do it.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
15/15
I hope I'm wrong about US case trend in the coming weeks.
I hope I'm wrong about the coming political response.
But watching this unfold the last 22 months makes me fear I'm not.
I hope I'm wrong about US case trend in the coming weeks.
I hope I'm wrong about the coming political response.
But watching this unfold the last 22 months makes me fear I'm not.
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