It is far, far too early to say anything definitively.

But IF it is true that Omicron is both much more transmissible than Delta, and somewhat less severe, it's going to require a pretty different approach in schools, workplaces, etc.
We're going to need *a lot* more rapid testing, because people will be getting sick too often, and too mildly, to close everything and quarantine everyone every time there's contact with someone positive.
For more, @EricTopol and @Bob_Wachter's feeds have some early glimmers of encouraging news on severity, while this thread on transmissibility is...unnerving.

If Omicron proves more or even as severe as Delta, it'll be terrifying.
This is the kind of policy we're going to need:

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More from @ezraklein

30 Nov
I liked this Rowing/Steering/Anchoring/Equity/Mutiny schema from Holden Karnofsky: cold-takes.com/rowing-steerin…
Some thoughts:

I'd like to see a lot more Steering in public debate, by which I mean more detailing of proposed far futures.

There's an opportunity for philanthropists and grant makers here. Journalism and academia undersupply Steering relative to its importance.
I think there's an obvious one Holden misses: Maintenance.
Read 9 tweets
24 Nov
One underplayed advantage for Substack and subscriber-based sites is how clean the reading experience is. A mixture of advertising, sign-up obsession, and recirculation efforts has made so many sites an awful reading experience.
I don't mean to pick on CNBC, as this applies to lots of sites. But I just went to read something there and...
I've been in meetings deciding whether to add some of these widgets to a page. I've asked for some of them!

All of these decisions make sense on their own. Some are financially necessary. But the reading experience degrades quickly as they add up.
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
I managed to miss most of the horrible Paternity Leave Discourse because, well, I'm on paternity leave until January.

But: Parental leave should be universal, and it should be universally taken. And not just so men can be helpmates to their wives, who're doing the Real Work.
Men should take paternity leave because they should care for their children, and experience the love that grows out of caring for their children.

To miss that is to parent (and live) in grayscale, not color.
I've seen a lot of older men who have no idea how to care for babies. They can't change a diaper, they don't know how to quiet a tantrum. They hold the baby for a minute and pass them back. They want to connect and build a relationship, but they can't. It's a lifelong loss.
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
Okay, time for some thoughts on "unpopularism," which is the closest I have to a synthesis in this conversation.

In short, the missing piece of popularism is what I’d call agenda control. Agenda control requires controversy. You can’t achieve it if you’re afraid to offend.
The media is attracted to controversy. Controversy requires large or powerful groups to be both opposed ands interested.

Most of the time, that requires some degree of unpopularity in your ideas.
I’m skeptical that polling is that useful a guide to issue popularity, particularly on new issues.

I think it’s more reliable as a guide to which party is favored on broad issue areas, like health care or immigration.
Read 13 tweets
12 Oct
Ross’s column today on @DavidShor and the Democrats’ woes is a good opportunity to talk through two parts of this debate that have been gnawing at me.

One is on Obama. The other is on what might be called Unpopularism. nytimes.com/2021/10/12/opi…
First, on Obama:

The popularist effort to remind people that Obama exerted message discipline in 08 and 12 risks underselling the obvious:

Obama was (and is!) Black, liberal, cosmopolitan and in 08, the anti-war candidate. He was a mobilizer first and foremost.
It's easy to forget now but the context for Obama was Kerry’s loss.

There was endless debate about how Democrats could win back “the Heartland,” how they’d lost touch with real America.

This was the era of fetishizing Brian Schweitzer and his bolo tie. nytimes.com/2006/10/08/mag…
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
So my basic response to this is I think extended periods of divided government are much worse now than they were in past eras.

If you care about, say, climate action, 10 years of divided government is a disaster.
But you don't even need to get to the really big legislative priorities for it to be a problem.

Can you effectively staff the government and replace court vacancies amidst extended, divided government?

Probably not.
The alarm I raise in the piece is that if you care about the governance outcomes I do, the Democrats' Senate outlook is *very* worrying.

That's different than a party being doomed, and people with different governance views will see this one differently!
Read 4 tweets

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